Here is the first fearless prediction from the non-gambling Bondi Junction Greek: France will win the 2013 Six Nations tournament.
The tournament, the second strongest rugby international tournament after The Rugby Championship, begins this weekend with Wales v Ireland at the Millennium Stadium, England v Scotland at Twickenham, and Italy v France at Stadio Olimpica.
I would anticipate victories to Ireland, England and Italy. Indeed, Will Greenwood, the former outstanding centre for England, believes that Ireland will win the tournament.
He is basing his prediction, which admittedly is not stated fearlessly in the UK’s Daily Telegraph, on the grounds that the other likely suspects, France and England, are both playing Ireland at home, in the Aviva Stadium at Dublin.
In the case of England, their encounter with Ireland is in week two of the tournament. The Ireland v France encounter is in week four.
Greenwood’s point is that none of the Six Nations sides are particularly strong playing away from home. This criticism (if such an obvious point can be called this) actually applies to every international side, with the exception of the All Blacks who have a remarkable record of winning Tests away from New Zealand.
Ireland have to actually capitalise on their home ground advantage, of course. And they have to defeat Wales, Scotland and Italy away from home, starting this weekend with Wales.
A year ago Wales were riding high in European rugby. They had won the Grand Slam for the third time in eight years.
And they had a squad ready to tour Australia which was touted by the experts as being the strongest that Wales had ever sent away on a tour. It is history now that Wales lost (narrowly) the three-Test series to the Wallabies, and the subsequent four Tests.
Wales have injuries to key players, a run of consecutive losses and are without their master-coach Warren Gatland, who is preparing to lead the British and Irish Lions on their three-Test tour here in June. Rob Howley, a fine Test halfback in his day, has not been able to achieve any success so far as the sorcerers’ apprentice.
I see Scotland as a strong possibility for achieving some upsets.. But then, I usually see this possibility and am always disappointed, although last season Scotland recorded a rare victory (admittedly in bizarre circumstances) against the Wallabies at Newcastle.
Scotland, on paper, have a team that should do better than it does. The pack is big and vigorous. There is some size and pace in the backs. For a long time, though, Scotland have lacked a number 10 who can get the best out of the talent around him. This still applies.
The new coach Scott Johnson was a clever five-eighth in Sydney rugby for a few decades. He is a lively thinker about rugby. If anyone can get some magic, or even a better performance than the team has generally produced in the last few years, then Johnson is the man.
He has co-opted Dean Ryan as his forwards coach. And Sean Maitland, the Crusaders’ flier, has been dropped immediately into the side as yet another ‘kilted Kiwi’ to give the side some long-range try-scoring possibilities.
Paul Ackford, an industrious and huge second rower for England, rates Ryan as the most insightful commentator on European rugby and if this thoughtfulness can be translated into better play by Scotland’s forwards, then who knows what may happen.
Greenwood suggests that England ‘are good but they are a run of big games away from great’.
I think this is a fair assessment. The Wallabies defeated England on their northern tour last season. But then England turned around and absolutely monstered the All Blacks.
Yes, the All Blacks were at the end of a long season and some of them were suffering from a stomach virus. But the victory was based on aggressive, high-powered and skilled forward play and some powerful running in the backs.
By any measure, any team that can thrash the All Blacks, anywhere and under any circumstances, is a side that needs to be honoured. But it is true that in recent years England has pulled off the occasional brilliant victory (against the Wallabies in 2010) and then lapsed back into a sort of bully-boy mediocrity.
As A suggests, when England starts to play this well away from the security of Twickenham, then the side will be rated as a contender for Six Nations and Rugby World Cup honours.
The advantage for England in this current Six Nations tournament is that they play France at Twickenham. And this gets us to Les Bleus are their possibilities this season.
Again I go to Greenwood for a thought on this: ‘France seem to be a step ahead (of England) in terms of cohesion and consistency, and were magnificent in the autumn.’
And so they were.
Ackford, too, while suggesting he is ‘clueless’ about who will win the tournament, makes this point: ‘On form, France are a delight, still the best side in the world at combining power play with soft, deft touches.’
The bulk of the side is made up of players who performed so splendidly in the Rugby World Cup 2011 final against the All Blacks. That same side, though, also lost two matches in the Rugby World Cup 2011 tournament, aside from the final, to the All Blacks and Tonga in the pool rounds.
Here we have the mystery and magic of France. The side is capable of the best rugby, in the forwards and backs, of any team in the world. The highlights reel of best tries scored in Tests would have a predominance of tries scored by France.
The side, as well, is capable of abysmal rugby. As the adage says: ‘It depends which French side turns up to play.’
This consideration always needs to be in mind when tipping France to win any tournament. Going for them right now is the fact that they have a splendid coach (and former clever winger for France), Philippe Saint-Andre. He has given the team, according to Greenwood, ‘organisation and a sense of purpose’.
A focused, well-selected and shrewdly-coached French side is a formidable rugby beast. This is why I am predicting that they will win the 2013 Six Nations tournament.
But I am drawing the line on this prediction. I reserve the right to make a fearless prediction about a Grand Slam tournament victory until, at least, this weekend’s round of matches has been played.
Dublin Dave
Guest
Well, hope you didn't put too much money on that, Spiro. Looks like France aren't going to win any baubles this year. They could still pick up 4 or 6 points, however. They rarely maintain utterly abject form throughout an entire championship. I wouldn't fancy them in Twickenham, regardless of what happens in the Ireland Englang game tomorrow but then they have Ireland in Dublin finishing up with Scotland at the Stade de France. It is a fact, if you exclude matches involving Italy, that of all the fixtures that made up the old Five Nations the most likely one to result in an away win is France playing in Dublin. By the time France come to the Aviva in March they will either have had a morale boosting win against England or they will be playing for their lives after three defeats. It's usually in circumstances like that that they turn on the style against Ireland. And I think they will turn over SCotland in St Denis. They usually do. The Six Nations is ALWAYS unpredictable but whoever wins the Ireland England match tomorrow will probably take the title. Would be very surprised if there's a Grand Slam this year though.
Bruce Rankin
Roar Rookie
Spiro, A hugely insightful pick for Italy to beat France and in the same breath pick France to win the tournament!
Derm
Roar Guru
Well Spiro got his predictions for this weekend spot on. Ireland, England and Italy did indeed win. However, the odds of the French winning their remaining 4 games better than anyone else seems like a long shot. I suspect the GS decider has moved to next weekend when Ireland take on England.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Just read this a few minutes ago (Brian Smith quoting Les Kiss): "... when these guys play England, they grow another leg. There's no winding-up to be done."
ScotandProud
Guest
100%. PSA is just reaping the benefits of all the risks that Lievremont took. He has made some good selections but I think hes closer to a Laporte figure than a Villepreux or a Noves.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Could it not be that Ireland don't raise their game against France, hence the record? My family are Irish and they certainly seem more enthusiastic prior to the England v Ireland games. I got the same impression from various Irish rugby books that I've read too: Popplewell, Galwey, Johns, O'Callaghan, Foley etc.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
I think it's madness that Tipuric isn't starting. Navidi has been outshining Warburton at the Blues too. However, who would take over the captaincy in his absence? Gethin Jenkins has been sidelined by Sheridan at Toulon, Matthew Rees isn't necessarily going to start ahead of Hibbard and Ryan Jones is injured. There aren't many alternative to captain the side. Also, with Wales being short of lineout options this week maybe Howley felt he had to start Shingler on the blindside?
ScotandProud
Guest
The thing that bothers me the most is that Sam Warburton has supposedly "seen off" the challenge from Justin Tipuric. This means that whilst Tipuric is the form player and there is no reason why Warburton should have the jersey Gatalnd and Howley are obviously building their Lions campaign around his captaincy. Give me a break. Just like noone told Sir Clive that the year of the Lions tour was 2005 not 2003 so these guys need reminding that the next tour is in 2013 not 2011/12. A slow and out of form Mike Phillips for Lions scrum half anyone?
Ben.S
Roar Guru
One thing I will say about France is that we've seen it all before: big pack; greater discipline and a smattering of talented backs. Bernard Laporte anybody?
Derm
Roar Guru
I don't get this "Ireland seem to raise their game against England." The corollary being if they hand't they'd have lost. They also raise their game against Wales, Scotland and Italy. It's France who they have the mental block about. Indeed, if France were't in the tourney, Ireland would have a lot more championships under their belt over the last decade. One more roll of the dice for messrs O'Driscoll and Darcy. Their final 6N season. Would be great if they went out with a bang.
Dublin Dave
Guest
I predict that it could go to the last day of the championship and come down to a points difference scramble between the leading teams. As it did in 2007 when England France and Ireland started the day on six points each with France having a points difference of 42, Ireland 38 and England 13. The running order for the matches that day was Italy to play Ireland in Rome, followed by France playing Scotland in St Denis and finally Wales hosting England at Cardiff. It was incumbent on Ireland to run up a high score against Italy to set France a tough target and they did so posting 51 points in Rome . Agonisingly and ironically they conceded two tries in the last 10 minutes, the final one coming about five minutes after the game should have ended. Determined to increase their lead from 51-17 Ireland ran three penalties after time was up only to turn the ball over and concede a last minute Italian try which had to go to the TMO to adjudicate on a "double movement". As nobody understands what that bloody rule is about, it was a coin toss and the TMO gave it to Italy. That try cost Ireland the championship because later in Stade de France, the French having cruised into a winning lead, conceded a late try to Scotland which put Ireland back into the lead on points difference. They in turn forced a last minute attack and a driving maul sent an octopus of bodies over the Scottish line. Again the TMO (an Irishman as it happens) had to look for a good reason to disallow the try (apart from the fact that there was no bloody way he could see the ball) and failed to find one. France won the championship with a points difference of +69 with Ireland finishing second on +65. And to add insult to injury it all happened on St Patrick's Day!!!
Dublin Dave
Guest
Ah yes, Mick the Kick. I heard about him at my father's knee. Epitome of a Limerick OUT HALF. (That's what we call them up here Five eighth me arse) He could kick the ball over the clouds but couldn't pass water.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Very good. Without any rugby being played I would tip Ireland to beat England in a very close match, and England to beat France.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
How is the 10 position sorted? Neither Hook nor Biggar have started consecutive Tests for Wales at 10 in recent seasons, so effectively it will be a new 10-12 combination. Also, Biggar isn't exactly the world's greatest playmaker at 10, and neither is Roberts, despite what Rob Howley says. You can talk about Wales not being dominated, but France and Ireland thrashed Argentina, and even Scotland beat Samoa in Samoa in the summer. Wales had an utterly disastrous Autumn, and I don't see how any real positives can be taken from that.
Sircoolalot
Guest
Same with Wales to be fair.... Wait they use that excuse any time they lose...
Colin N
Guest
England haven't won in Dublin in the Six Nations since 2003, but they did beat them in the World Cup warm-up. But yes, I hate playing Ireland as they seem to raise their game for us. I'm also liking the look of that Ireland team as well, although they need to find replacements for their ageing centre pairing.
Colin N
Guest
"England have yet to prove they can win a scrappy affair, or come back from a deficit to win…as such i am still unconvinced." England came back from deficits against both Scotland and Italy away last season in Stuart Lancaster's first two games in charge. I don't think there should be any doubt that this England side has self-belief and a will to win. For example, England beat France in the Stade de France, a week after losing controversially to Wales - that takes an enormous effort. Then moren recently, coming back from defeats to Australia and South Africa to thrash New Zealand - once again, that shows incredible character.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
England have become the "never know which side will turn up" team more than France in recent years. One minute we're getting arm-wrestled by Scotland, comprehensively outplayed by Ireland, scared by Italy and smashed by the Boks. The next we're running Australia and New Zealand off the park. Lancaster might be breeding more consistency over his tenure than previous managers but we've got quite a few games coming up to see. A number of players and commentators have stressed the big role Andy Farrell is playing in the coaching set-up. He wasn't with the team in South Africa but is given a lot of credit for the NZ performance. It's one thing, though, to beat teams when you are the underdogs. It's another matter to deal with the favourite tag. It's easy to forget that some thought England might get the wooden spoon last year. It could have gone that way if Scotland had taken their chances, and Italy hadn't let us back in the game after racing out to a lead. Even after beating four teams out of five in 2012, few English players were being tipped for this year's Lions tour. This year, we're regarded as potential winners and our Lions quota has shot up accordingly. One thing English rugby has done consistently since that long-ago World Cup win is underperform when expectations are high. If we happen to beat France at home , but get turned over by Wales and Ireland away, then it would be disappointing but not a shock. Losing to Italy or Scotland at Twickenham would be a shock by any measure. We've never lost to Italy and Scotland haven't won at Twickenham since 1983. Both of those records will go one day but I hope it isn't this year. Or at all, if truth be told.
Derm
Roar Guru
Winning the 6 Nations is nearly always about gaining winning momentum. The first round is crucial therefore. Wales v Ireland. Ireland have an overall 8-5 Six Nations record against Wales. Wales have won the last three games against Ireland. But they've lost their last seven. Ireland were woeful in NZ overall, but recovered in November with a narrow loss to SA then thrashed Fiji and Argentina. The last match against Argenitna was notable in that Kidney finally decided to field a number of new players who accounted for themselves well. Ireland are playing away,but their record in the Millenium is actually quite good. If they win, then their tails are up for the next critical game against England. England haven't won in Dublin since 2003. Ireland are their bogey team over the last decade. Should be a huge match, if both sides arrive with a win in their back pockets. England v Scotland. The Scots just love turning ove the English in their backyard. But it ain't going to happen. England to emerge victorious. France v Italy. Bluntly, the Italians don't have a chance. So by round two, I predict Ireland, England and France to be rolling. That's as far as I'd go,until this week's matches have been played and we see the measure of the performances from each side.
Derm
Roar Guru
Whenever Australia lose to teams other than Sa, Nz, Eng or Fra, it's because they were fielding a B team or missing key players.