Who will take the last two A-League finals spots?

Advocates of a traditional first-past-the-post end to the A-League season would do well to take a look at the rear end of the table with five rounds left to play.

Six teams will scrap for two places for the remainder of the season, with no-one yet out of the running. In what promises to be the closest finals run-in the competition has seen, picking the two finalists appears about as straight-forward as exiting an Ikea megastore.

The remaining fixtures contain more season defining moments than The Wire box-set and no team from fifth place down can feel remotely secure about a finals’ berth.

It doesn’t take Big Kev to find excitement in such a scenario though one or two broadcast stations might wish to get with the program.

Several news services indicate that pre-season AFL and rugby league games are of greater importance, but steadily increasing crowd figures and unrivalled passion in the terraces suggest otherwise.

Melbourne Heart, the Newcastle Jets and Sydney FC appear in the box seat for now, equal on 27 points, two clear of last year’s premiers the Brisbane Roar.

A further three points back are the Perth Glory, followed by the Wellington Phoenix in last place on 21.

A cursory glance at the table might lead a punter to rule out this pair of stragglers and plump for any two of the first three.

Brisbane will also be favoured by many as they have big game experience and a similar squad to the one which has just won back to back premierships.

Snap judgements can be risky though, and a proper dissection of the remaining matches throws up all sorts of possibilities.

Of the teams in question, Wellington and Perth have the most manageable run-ins.

They each have three home games out of five, an advantage they share with Brisbane only. The significance of playing at home for professional sportsmen is open to discussion but the fact is that most of these teams struggle on the road.

Melbourne Heart are notoriously bad travellers while Sydney’s recent revival has come on the back of five straight home wins.

Perth and Wellington are geographically disadvantaged as commuters and could be forgiven the odd sick day.

Newcastle and Brisbane are probably the best of the bunch on their travels, but are hardly formidable.

Sydney and Melbourne will be under immense pressure to win their home games but this will be no simple task either.

The Sky Blues face competition leaders Central Coast Mariners and fierce rivals Melbourne Victory in successive weeks at Allianz Park while The Heart have back-to-back home fixtures with second-placed Western Sydney and third-placed Adelaide United.

Both sides hit the road for the final fortnight of the regular season.

Wellington and Perth also benefit from marginally lesser opponents from here on.

They each play only two of the top-four teams whereas the others all face off against three.

This is a potentially telling statistic as the quartet at the top all have plenty to play for, the minor premiership in the case of Central Coast and Western Sydney, while Adelaide and Victory are scrapping for an easier path to the grand final.

Teams of lesser quality would be foolish to expect anything off this bunch at so crucial a time.

Based on current form its easy enough to imagine Newcastle and the Heart holding firm and qualifying but neither have shown the kind of consistency this term to be regarded as odds-on.

Sydney FC face the kind of home stretch to give their ageing squad an attack of incontinence, with the aforementioned home double header followed by a trip to Parramatta Stadium and a showdown in Brisbane in the final round.

They have the talent in their ranks to navigate such a tricky period but the noted improvement since Frank Farina took over will have to continue apace. Brisbane are understandably a dark horse.

Not too many are talking up their credentials at this point but if they start to click at right time they have the match winners in their squad to, um, win matches.

Perth, having replaced the one dimensional Ian Ferguson with Alistair Edwards at the helm, are beginning to play with that little extra spring in their step.

They can’t be written off. Even Wellington in last place should not be discounted. They have home matches against Newcastle and the Heart in the next two weeks, a pair of eminently winnable matches which could change everything.

To state the blindingly obvious, it will be the most consistent who prevail.

To that end it may well be the teams currently occupying fifth and sixth place who are playing finals football come April.

There are a couple of more talented outfits sitting below them who might have something to say about that though. However it turns out it promises to be an almighty scrap, one that wouldn’t exist were it not for the unique nature of our league’s structure.