With the summer of tennis long finished and the cricket team already on another tour, league fans feel great anticipation about the start of the NRL season.
Moreover we start feeling inevitable optimism about our club’s chance of holding aloft the premiership trophy in September.
I’ll start by admitting I’m a diehard Cowboys fan.
Every year, no matter how unlikely, I always hold onto a tiny beacon of hope that the Cowboys will finally deliver for us long suffering fans. Despite this hope, realistically I can’t see this being the Cowboys year.
I’ll start by listing my reasons to be optimistic about the Cowboys chances this year.
Many experts have labelled the Cowboys current playing squad as one of their best. It’s hard to argue otherwise.
Johnathan Thurston is unquestionably the games number one playmaker. He leads a backline that scored more points than any other NRL side in 2012.
Veterans Ashley Graham, Brent Tate and the ageless Matt Bowen provide apt support in the backline, which should once again be one of the most potent attacking units in the game.
In the forwards the Cowboys have a solid, no nonsense pack.
Up front James Tamou and Matt Scott are two of Australia’s best front rowers. Scott Moore is a creative and nippy hooker who looks to be a perfect fit at the Cowboys.
Tariq Sims, Jason Taumalolo, Gavin Cooper and Dallas Johnson provide the core of a backrow that combines a solid mixture of workers and hitmen.
With that in mind, I would like to see the Cowboys first choice side as:
1 Bowen
2 Graham
3 Linnett
4 Tate
5 Faifai-Loa
6 Morgan
7 Thurston
8 Scott
9 Moore
10 Tamou
11 Cooper
12 T.Sims
13 Johnson
14 Thompson 15 A.Sims 16 Bolton 17 Taumalolo
I think Thurston is best suited to first receiver, while Morgan would be best utilized as a wide running five-eighth.
Faifai-Loa is not as solid as Winterstein in defence but is brilliant in attack and deserves to be in first grade.
In the forwards I would also like to see Bolton used as an edge runner again rather than at prop, given he was so effective on the edges in 2009 and 2010.
The Cowboys have a number of players with a wealth of first grade experience who won’t make their first choice side.
If the side listed above was the Cowboys side, they would have depth in the likes of Glenn Hall, Ricky Thorby, Joel Reithmuller, Antonio Winterstein, Robert Lui, Rory Kostjasyn, Anthony Mitchell and Clint Greenshields.
All of these men have played a number of first grade games thus giving the Cowboys possibly the best depth in the NRL.
On the coaching front the Cowboys are well covered.
Neil Henry is tactically brilliant while also devising brilliant innovations such as bringing in sprint coach Paul Di Bella. Terry Matterson has been terrific in giving Henry much needed support as well as drastically improving the teams defence. Paul Bowman has done well working on the teams fitness in his role as high performance manager.
The combination of an excellent playing roster and astute coaching staff gives the Cowboys a brilliant chance to challenge for the premiership. However I can’t help but feel there are a number of factors that will prevent the Cowboys from breaking their title drought in 2013.
Firstly, their star player and captain is off-contract.
I believe Thurston will re-sign with the Cowboys and, like the last time he was off-contract, I believe he is only trying to increase value by linking himself to other clubs.
The last time this happened in 2010 the on-field ramifications were disastrous, with Cowboys only avoiding the wooden spoon due to Storm being stripped of all points.
Neil Henry is also off-contract. Having a their coach off-contract is always a challenging time for a club. If the Cowboys start the season poorly, there will no doubt be media speculation that Henry won’t be re-signed or even sacked.
Given that Wayne Bennett, Craig Bellamy and Des Hasler are all signed to their respective clubs I think the Cowboys best option is to re-sign Henry as soon as possible.
There are also on-field reasons I doubt the Cowboys will win the premiership in 2013. Neil Henry has worked hard trying to make the Cowboys less dependent on Thurston and Bowen, however their fitness is vital if the Cowboys are going to regularly beat the best sides.
The likes of Lui and Greenshields provide solid cover however neither is in the class of Thurston and Bowen.
The Cowboys also have to start winning more games in Sydney.
In recent years they improved their away record but still struggle in Sydney. To win the grand final they must go into the match with confidence and belief, which can only be gained by winning in the NSW capital.
Regardless of the reason for the Cowboys’ struggles in Sydney, whether be physiological, due to travel, or some other reason, they must overcome it sooner rather than later.
This year is unquestionably a wonderful opportunity for Cowboys to challenge for the premiership. They have an excellent playing roster and great coaching staff.
I just can’t help but feel this won’t be their year.
But as a diehard fan I will still hold hope that this is the year the Cowboys break their premiership drought.
After all it is a new year, with new hope.
Mantis
Roar Guru
When do you honestly think the game will become 'truly national'? I just cant see it happening, it is just too big a stretch.
minibus
Guest
When the game becomes truely national the Cowboys might have a chance. Bigger markets in Brisbane, Sydney & Melbourne are difficult for powerbrokers to ignore and there's no trouble finding support for footy in (Nth) Qld. ARLC & NRL are stll swayed by Sydney centric politics which clouds judgements for an 'even playing field'! While Melbourne & Sydney teams have being winning the premiership in recent years (Broncs 06), Qld has been winning Origin. This could change if the Blues win an origin series?
db swannie
Guest
Like every season ,I live in hope. Dont mind getting beaten in a finals game as long as the refereeing wasnt part of the beating.
Johnno
Guest
Melbourne is a much bigger market the NRL need, 4.2 million in Melbourne closer distance to sydney too. The NRL want a national comp and need a strong Melbourne, the Cowboys can be driven along to make up the numbers.
RMC
Roar Pro
I have to disagree about Glen Hall. He was very good in 2011 however his form wasn't as good last year. I would prefer Bolton over Hall. Tariq will start eventually, Henry was starting him on the right edge last year before he broke his leg again. Lui will almost certainly get the first chance at halfback due to Morgans injury. I think Thompson is a clear third choice behind Lui and Morgan for the halfback role. He is far more likely to be used off the bench at hooker. If the Cowboys are going to be a serious contender this year they should either beat the Bulldogs or go very close, given they are not only missing Barba but also Graham and Kasiano.
Mantis
Roar Guru
And Melbourne are a 'protected Sydney team'?
RMC
Roar Pro
They defiantly need to start winning more consistently in Sydney if they want to challenge for the premiership, rather than just make the finals. The Broncos do have a larger support base, however the Cowboys are disadvantaged by having fans spread over such a large area. Moreover at Suncorp in big matches the Broncos can fit in 50, 000 fans as oppose to at Townsville Stadium which has a capacity of around 25, 000. Being able to fit more fans in the big matches does help push their average attendance. In regards to the Broncos having Friday night games, the Cowboys prefer Saturday night games because it suits families who have to travel to attend games.
minibus
Guest
I don't suffer from 'delusions of grandeur' to think the Cowboys have any chance of winning the big one. Far from it, as long as all those clubs remain in Sydney they haven't got a chance! Yes they'll be fast, powerful, organised, exciting & entertaining with the players Thurston has around him. But when it comes down to the crunch they're not a 'protected' Sydney team. To many times I've watched Cowboys games in Sydney where inconsistent, silly, diabolical refereeing decisions go against them. They're getting better but it doesn't get any easier for them. For those not convinced, go and watch the West-Tigers v Cowboys (24.05.12) in Sydney last year as one example.
RMC
Roar Pro
I've also read very positive reports about Moore's work ethic at training. Neil Henry was very pleased with his trial form and has stated he will he will get first crack at hooker. If Moore can stay out of trouble off the field he should be a success in the NRL.
Mantis
Roar Guru
I too am a long suffering Cowboys fan, but I am hugely optimistic this year. We have arguably the two best props in the game, and if what is said about Scotty Moore, a very handy hooker as well. The back row is as strong as its ever been, a mix of workers and beasts (Sims and Taumalolo will have massive years). I agree mostly with your starting side, with just a few exceptions. I think Kalifa has to start. I like Winterstein, but he didnt offer a whole lot last year, whereas KFL can do those freakish things you look for in a winger. Glenn Hall has to be somewhere in the 17. If Tariq does start ahead of him (which im not sure he will, especially early in the year), then Hall will come onto the bench at the expense of Bolton (who I also rate, and think has been quite unlucky). I also think that Robert Lui will play a good chunk of the year at 7. Michael Morgan did well when required, but I think he is only getting first crack at 7 because he is the incumbent from last year. As you said in your article, Morgan will be used as a wide runnign 5/8, which I think will be the role JT has, allowing him more space to work his magic. A more reliable HB in Lui or Thompson will play 7 for the majority of the year I think. Looking forward to saturday night, I think we will get on top of the doggies, especially now that Barba is not playing.
Ask
Guest
I haven't seen any of Scott Moore previously but from all reports he has a pretty good all round game, but we still have the option of playing Ray Thompson at 9. Payne was a very good player for many years at the Cowboys but his dimishing speed in the last couple of years stifled the attack significantly (see anytime Segayaro came on last season for the difference). To be fair he was always going to be a sentimental pick for the Cows, and while at his best he was never in Buderus' class he also didn't fall as far (at least Payne still had a good pass, not this rubbish Buderus now serves up, imagine Jarred Mullin with good quick ball) when age started to get the best of him.
Matt
Guest
If they could not choke every time they played in Sydney, then sure. Until then no matter how good their squad is, they will always struggle in the finals, as they won't get many at home. Last year they lost to Manly, who then got thrashed by the Storm. Looking through their season stats (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NRL_season_results) - wow check out those crowds. That's why the Bronocs are on Friday nights! Some weeks they more than double the attendance of the next highest game.
peeeko
Roar Guru
If Scott Moore is decent at NRL level they will go very close