On a thread predicting where the Suns would finish in 2013, I commented that Karmichael Hunt would struggle to play regular senior football for the Gold Coast this year.
I was howled down by some of the usual suspects, but when I asked the question of exactly where he would fit, I got surprisingly little feedback.
I thought I would pose the question to a potentially wider audience.
As a base for the Suns best 22, I used the side that beat the Blues in round 22 last year.
B: Taylor Hine, Michael Coad, Jeremy Taylor
HB: Daniel Stanley, Matthew Warnock, Jarrod Harbrow
C: Kyal Horsley, Gary Ablett, Matt Shaw
HF: Jacob Gillbee, Tom Lynch, Brandon Matera
F: Alik Magin, Steven May, Campbell Brown
Foll: Charlie Dixon, Josh Caddy, Harley Bennell
I/C: Maverick Weller, Piers Flanagan, Trent McKenzie, Tom Hickey
Out of that side go Hickey and Caddy, in come Tom Murphy, Greg Broughton, Jaeger O’Meara, Jesse Lonergan, Michael Rischitelli, Nathan Bock, Zac Smith, David Swallow and possibly a couple of other youngsters who have had good pre-seasons.
Looking through the side and the logical additions, it becomes apparent that the Suns side is no longer simply full of undersized first year players.
Players like Bock, Rischitelli, Murphy, Broughton, Ablett, Brown, Warnock and Harbrow have been in the AFL system for a number of years.
On top of that, O’Meara and Lonergan are far from skinny kids. The question becomes do they need Hunt simply to add size?
On top of that, if you look at Hunt’s 2012 figures, you will see on centre clearances he averages 2.66 a game.
He will have to contend with Prestia 3.2, Smith 2.56 and a ruckman and Swallow 3.08.
On contested possesion Hunt averages 6.3, Prestia 8.14, Swallow 9.41, Smith 6.62 and Rischitelli 6.64.
On tackles Hunt averages 3.5, Presita 4.21, Swallow 3.58 and Rischitelli 4.21.
On inside 50s, Hunt averages 2.27, Prestia 2.14, Swallow 3.16 and Campbell Brown 2.29.
Hunt also ranks sixth for clangers and 19th for disposal efficiency at the Suns and 14th for one percenters.
These are hardly the figures of a man doing all the grunt work to allow the classier younger players to remain on the outside.
If you then consider Hunt’s age (26), the Suns’ premiership window and the number of future high draft picks that they could get in coming years, is playing Hunt actually in the Suns’ best interests long term?
I know a lot of people will simply see this article as me bagging Hunt because I don’t like him, but all I really want is to know how and where Hunt could fit into the Suns’ best side.
Roarers, I look forward to your answer.
Macca
Guest
16 rounds into the season and Hunt has played just the 7 games, only 2 of the 5 wins and is averaging 9.7 disposals, 2.6 marks and 3.9 tackles and has just 1 goal for the year - anyone want to admit I was right yet?
Macca
Guest
ilj - Yeah didn't play much, only 250 games. How about you?
Fred
Guest
Macca's ability to see other points of view is amazing! Go Macca.
ilj
Guest
Macca you sound like one of those people who has never played the game so you really dont understand as much as you think and therefor you live your footy ambitions through stats!
Macca
Guest
Anon - They aren't really 3/4 time stats, just because he couldn't get a kick late in the game doesn't mean the game stopped. And while he "must show the benefit of the additional pre-season campaigns." there are plenty of other much more talented kids on that list who will show the benefits of additional pre-season campaign, he needs to do more than improve his fitness, he needs to improve everything.
Anon
Guest
As a North fan I was going to point out that Taylor Hine has moved to North MElbourne - but then I saw that simmo107 had raised that point. Karmichael Hunt struggled to finish off games last year - most of those stats should be qualified as effectively 3/4 time stats. His impact on matches improved - he had some very good quarters where his good form was important in lifting the overall impact of the Suns - that was a good sign. FOr Hunt - the challenge this year is to play 4 quarter games - at least to impact more going into the last quarter. the irony of course is his impact vs Richmond with an after the siren match winning goal. Anyway - a couple of years in - he's doing okay and trending okay. This year and next he really must show the benefit of the additional pre-season campaigns.
Macca
Guest
Yeah and the report I used also apparently missed Piers Flanagan being delisted but it still leaves at least 8 players (9 if you count Hunt) to get into 4 spots, or I suppose more accurately at least 27 trying to get into 22.
simmo107
Roar Rookie
Just a note that Taylor Hine plays for North Melbourne now so that leaves 3 spots to be filled by players
Macca
Guest
Josh - You are taking 1 stat and trying to make a case, you have to look at everything in conjunction. For Example Hunt may beat Betts for disposals but Betts kicked 48 goals last year, Hunt kicked 1, Armfield played largely as a defensive forward (ie nullifying the rebounding defender) and kicked 16 goals (plus is battling for a spot) Jamison and Duigan (and Duigan got dropped) are defenders and Yarran, Kreuzer & Garlett had ordinary years (but Garlett did manage 29 goals and Kreuzer is a ruckman). Scotland & Simpson smasehd Hunt in disposal and aren't picked as inside midfielders. So I f Hunt want to be a tagger and restrict his opponent (which he doesn't) or play as a forward pocket and kick 30 plus goals, or Ruck, or play as a defender then yes he can have that number of possessions and tackles but as he was picked as a centreman all year he can't get away with it.
Mullos
Guest
Kiwi Hunt should go back to the last sport he last played, Rugby Union, and try to play for one of the most famous teams of all, the All Blacks, seeing he is a originally a Kiwi and is a big fan of them. Another Brad Thorn if you will who also played Tests for the Kangaroos and Origin for Queensland before his long All Black career.
josh
Roar Rookie
Hunt out points the following Carlton "stars" for disposals and tackles At 14.67 disposals per game Hunt beats out: Armfield, Betts, Jamison, Duigan, Kruzer and Garlett. And is even with Yarran. And would rank equal 16th... http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tr-carlton-blues?year=2012&rt=TA&st=DI And with 3.5 tackles per game Hunt beats out: Scotland, Kruezer,Simpson in fact Hunt would rank 11th in Carlton's ave tackles per game list with 3.5... http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tr-carlton-blues?year=2012&rt=TA&st=TA Hardly struggling for a spot.
Macca
Guest
Looking at a couple of other sites it does look doubtful Bock will be back for Round 1,but some have McKenzie on track for Round 1 and I doubt whether they'll go in against the Saints with Brennan & Broughton as their key defenders So both Coad & Warnock may come in, which again puts pressure on hunts spot.
Macca
Guest
Fair enough - And Shaw? Still even if your side is the round 1 side, Hunt is on the edge, Bock Bock comes in, or lonergan gets back in round 4 or Shaw comes up and he is out, which is exactly what I have been saying, he will play some games due to others being injured but in their best side he will struggle.
Macca
Guest
11th in total hit outs wow, given only 2 or 3 blokes in any given game actually contest a hit out 11th is a major achievement. 7th in tackles per game - Isn't he supposed to be in the team for his tackling yet 6 other blokes lay more per game? 21st on average disposals, well at least 1 person in the team gets less, Warnock at full back perhaps? Those stats don't help your argument. And with O'meara, Broughton, Murphy, & Lonergan at least to come into the side he needs to improve.
Matt Watson
Roar Rookie
Lonergan was announced out today with a broken hand, else I would have gladly put him in at Horsley's expense on current form http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-03-18/lonergans-chances-good-then-gone
josh
Roar Rookie
Last season Karmichael Hunt: Ranked second in total tackles (7th tackles per game). 11th for total disposals (21st on average - up to 16 ignoring those under 5 games). 11th in total hitouts (12th on average inside the top 10 using a min. of 5 games) 2nd in frees for (negated some what by being 5th in frees against). but that comes with the position Ablett is 1st and 2nd respectively. Sure his numbers might be down based some factor to qualify for a spot in any other team. But within the Suns organisation he justifies his spot. http://finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?TeamID=19&SeasonID=2012&Go=Go#Player
Macca
Guest
Also no Shaw? I thought he was supposed to be pretty handy?
Macca
Guest
Josh - You are not the first to make tha Shane Battier argument, however at some point the players who actually get the ball Hunt is holding out start to offer more than this supposed "effect" hunt has.
Macca
Guest
So you wouldn't bring in O'meara, Lonergan, Murphy, Broughton, Rischitelli, Swallow or Bock just play the same side as the team that beat the blues just switch Flanagan for Hunt? Interesting!
Macca
Guest
Thanks Matt, I would say though at 189 Broughton is a bit small to be CHB and Bock is Scheduled to be back for Round 1. I also can't see Brennan playing Full back but McKenzie is doubtful for round 1 by the looks so a Coad or Warnock in for McKenzie and Brennan to a pocket would work. I would think Lonergan would be pushing for a spot as well. So if Lonergan and Bock come in Hunt could be in trouble.