Will it be another fruitless season at Punt Road or are Richmond primed for a finals berth?
If there ever was an acid test for one club, 2013 is it for the ever-disappointing Richmond.
Every season seems to bring so much promise to the Punt Road faithful but every September the Tigers players are already on holidays and wondering ‘what if?’.
2013 is the same again for Damien Hardwick and his men who can only blame themselves for missing the eight last year, mainly due to a trio of defeats by less than five points between rounds 16 and 18.
An inexplicable two-point loss to Gold Coast (a home game which was sold to Cazaly’s Stadium in Cairns), and four-point reverses at the hands of North Melbourne and Carlton seemingly cost the Tigers a first crack at the finals since 2001.
They also lost three other matches by 12 points or less to Geelong, West Coast and Fremantle and drew with Port Adelaide in the final round.
Regardless of the fact, it was certainly a year of progress at Tigerland with the prominent rise of captain-elect Trent Cotchin, the consistency of Brett Deledio, the surprising form of Ivan Maric and a Coleman Medal to Jack Riewoldt who was hardly sighted last pre-season.
There is plenty to like about the new-look Tigers. They are following the lead of their nard-nosed coach who has instilled a spirit and character not seen in a black and yellow jumper for some time.
Yes, the customary skill errors remain but are definitely being minimised, mainly due to the fact that they had time to iron out those deficiencies last season by topping the competition in disposals.
The midfield could be key with the likes of Cotchin, Shane Tuck, Dustin Martin (remember he is still only 21) and Shaun Grigg consistently pumping the ball into a forward line.
The forward line consists of a fully-fit Riewoldt, who will be assisted by Tyrone Vickery (ready to step up), the lead-up abilities of former Kangaroo Aaron Edwards and the goalscoring knack of his namesake Shane Edwards.
There is plenty to like about the Richmond defence in 2013 with former skipper Chris Newman set to be released in a more advanced role and promoted recycled rookie Ricky Petterd to step into his roaming half-back position.
The addition of Troy Chaplin from Port Adelaide is enormous as it enables Alex Rance to play further away from the goal square and on opponents more his size, while there is variety with lockdown small defender Steve Morris and the imminent second-year improvement of Brandon Ellis (likely to spend time in midfield).
A tough early draw including fixtures against opening round nemesis Carlton, Collingwood, Freo (away) and Geelong in the first five rounds could have the Tigers reeling if things don’t go their way but they have enough suitable matches after that to respond positively.
But as a fearful Tigers supporter, I have to shy away from all the hype and positivity surrounding the club this year and tip them to finish in a very familiar position.
This is mainly just to limit my expectations from a team who has failed to deliver again and again.
Key players
Trent Cotchin – Class personified. Almost impossible to tag and will lead the club for the next decade.
Brett Deledio – Super consistent midfielder whose rebound from half-back and penetration into the forward 50 are paramount.
Jack Riewoldt – Natural goalkicker who can make something of out of nothing. Two Coleman Medals in three years is a great return.
Break out potential
Tyrone Vickery – Has been spruiked in the past but the tall forward/ruckman is set to fulfil his potential in 2013 after a disappointing 2012.
Reece Conca – 35-game player who is ready to step out of the midfield shadows and be a vital contributor.
Matt Dea – Has had some injuries and has been thereabouts but should feature a lot more in defence this year.
Promising youngsters
Nick Vlastuin – Hard and tough draftee who will play off half-back and through the midfield. Ready for senior footy straight away.
Brandon Ellis – Had an impressive debut season in 2012 and is likely to be given more responsibility as a midfielder.
Brett O’Hanlon – Played eight games as a half-forward last season and is being tipped to slip into the senior team with more regularity.
Key inclusions
Troy Chaplin – Key defender from Port Adelaide will be of great benefit to the Tigers defence.
Chris Knights – Skilful wing/half-forward who needs to get back to playing frequent senior footy after some injury worries with Adelaide.
Aaron Edwards – Former Kangroo who will add depth to the forward 50.
Ricky Petterd – Across from Melbourne where he played up forward. Promoted from the rookie list and will slot in to defence as a ball carrier.
Notable departures
Angus Graham – Adelaide
Kelvin Moore – retired
Predicted finish: ninth
Worth a punt
Trent Cotchin – to win Brownlow Medal into Richmond to miss top 8: $15.20
Jack Riewoldt – to win Coleman Medal into Richmond to make top 8: $11.10
Bogga
Guest
Poor Andrew. Sure Deledio, Riewoldt and Cotchin are guns, and sprinkled amongst the rest are some who might turn into decent footballers, but the fact is that Richmond would need all of their borderline players to step up to make the finals and history shows that this is rare. It's not like Richmond have many guns slipping back into the side. More likely that some borderline players will make it and others will clearly fall short. Richmond will improve, but not enough to make the finals, maybe not even enough to hold their position. I think they're more likely to drop more games to teams below than to pick up games against teams above. They'll most likely lose to the GC again in Cairns this year, again at long odds, and again I'll clean up. I don't blame you for aiming high, but Grigg, Dea, Conca, O'Hanlon, Petterd are depth players, not the kind of people who drag a side into finals. At least there's a good spine now (with the exception of Vickery who is unproven). I think they're a lot like Carlton, Without Cotchin(Judd) they'd be down with the bulldogs.
Al Symers
Guest
Get to the end of the queue Gorgeous.!!
Al Symers
Guest
Still, they've been perfecting mediocrity for all this time. Where's Billy Barrot when you need him??
Andrew Slevison
Roar Rookie
12 years without finals! I think it's about time Richmond heightened their ambitions after being mediocre for so long. Surely they cannot go around striving for competitiveness forever!
Andrew Slevison
Roar Rookie
Haha, hopefully it will be a case of 'Can Richmond make...I mean stay in the final eight?'. Cheers!
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
Still one of the most flimsy sporting under achievement comparisons I've ever read Mastermind. Sorry.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Stratton
Guest
Apology accepted. Just don't do it again next year.
Al Symers
Guest
Lets stop the BS of finals and just make sure the tigers remain competitive regardless of wins on the board. Well said Milo, wholeheartedly agree.
Milo
Guest
Has anyone actually contemplated the opposite? Tigers have done really well over the past three years under Dimma. Improvement in skill and finishing each year and results have been reflected on the scoreboard. However and its a big However, this does not necessarily guarantee improvement again this year. Couple of critical injuries to a Cotchin and Maric and its not hard to see the Tiges slipping this year. WIth a massive log jam of clubs that are thereabouts dont be surprised if the tigers fall down. And wait for the knives to come out for Dimma who would find his honeymoon well and truly over. But they need to hold fast. Recent hIstory shows that there have been a number of clubs who after showing constant improvement slip back for one year. History also shows that if you stick with the coach and his team the real results will follow. Lets stop the BS of finals and just make sure the tigers remain competitive regardless of wins on the board.
Gorgeous Gorge
Guest
Wouldnt mind coming in off her flank!!
Avatar
Roar Guru
Richmond: Eleven years without a finals appearance since 2001. Ana Ivanovic: 18 out of 19 Grand Slam tournaments without reaching the quarter-finals since winning the French Open in 2008. Also, both have hit rock bottom (Richmond won the wooden spoons in 2004 and 2007, in 2010 Ana Ivanovic dropped to World No. 65 in the WTA rankings) and never really got back to their best form. Richmond's disappointment in the AFL compare to that of Ana Ivanovic at Grand Slam tournaments. No success, no confidence.
Andrew Slevison
Roar Rookie
Well The Curious Case of Benjamin Stratton, that simply seems to be the question posed every year and Richmond continually answer it in a negative fashion. Sorry I couldnt write an article about finishing bottom or winning the flag but this is the reality of their current situation.....
Col
Guest
Yep, still scratching my head at the Ivanovic compare...... Anyway, tough start for the Tigs. The Saints in rd 2 is a biggie. Drop that and they are looking at 1-4 start. The draws not too bad after that but a potential concern is that I cant see any real opportunities to string some wins together. Maybe 3 in a row at best. Momentum will be tough to gain for the Tigs, which makes their start all the more important in my view. 4th least experienced side last year with ave games played at 74 per player. Their ins this year will boost that number, plus a number of players will break through the 100+ games barrier (which is a big stat). I do have them winning 14 games which should get them in the 8, one of those though is v Suns....which would be classed as an upset!
Al Symers
Guest
Very odd comparison, Tigers and Ivanovic. Although at 185cm, she might be fine coming in off the flank.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Stratton
Guest
The old "will Richmond finally make the finals this year" story gets polished off and published again for the 30th year in a row. Apologies but it is a bit Booooooooring! Even GWS and 'Carlton to win the flag' stories are more interesting.
TomC
Roar Guru
Andrew, the self-restraint in this article is almost palpable! Well, this neutral fan thinks you'll make the finals, and make them quite easily. I don't know if A.Edwards will make much difference, but I do think a better season from Vickery can be expected. I see Tyrone more as a roving half-forward type than a close to goals full forward though. I think the Tigers have recruited very intelligently. They've padded out the depth in the squad in key areas without sacrificing anything, really. They can also look forward to the return of Nathan Foley later in the season, to add to Cotchin, Martin, Deledio and Tuck in the midfield. I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be able to find the consistency that's eluded them the last couple of seasons.
Andrew Slevison
Roar Rookie
Don't think the Tiges have ever been compared to Ana Ivanovic before!! They would have snuck in had they won those three matches and avoided the draw because they would have finished equal with North on 14 wins but made up the less than 1% required to edge them out. However, they did not so it doesn't really matter. They have a list of players capable of making the eight but I always treat Richmond with trepidation. Keeps the stress levels down!
Avatar
Roar Guru
Unfortunately, I don't see Richmond making the finals. Richmond fans should prepare for another season of disappointment, like Ana Ivanovic should always prepare for disappointment at tennis tournaments. Last year, they had a tough opening, drawing Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast in the first five rounds, bringing about their downfall very quickly. And those trio of losses by less than a kick that you mentioned, even if Richmond had won those matches, and beaten Port in the final round, it would not have been enough to make the finals and the Tigers would have finished that dreaded ninth again. Richmond AFL fans should also be feeling the same pain as Ana Ivanovic's supporters in tennis. The Serbian, who won the 2008 French Open, has not gone past the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam tournament ever since (except for last year's US Open). There's a lot of comparison to Richmond and Ana Ivanovic, who have both been unsuccessful for very long periods of time and not featuring deep in the season (Richmond) or tournaments (Ivanovic).