It’s an intriguing exercise to peruse the official AFL team photos.
If you knew nothing about the game and were asked to nominate the dominant side of the competition you may look at the demeanour or the builds of the respective teams to make your decision.
You may even search for a glint in the eye, or an easy smile that could betray the identity of the premiership winner.
The thing is, even if you had only two teams from which to choose, you could never be certain.
Appearances can be deceptive.
I was looking at the picture of the Sydney Swans from The Herald Sun liftout and what struck me about the 2012 Premiers was how un-premier-like they look.
Notwithstanding the intimidating presence of Kurt Tippett in the centre (I didn’t realise he was such a big man – being taller than Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke) and Rhyce Shaw’s eerie impersonation of Ned Kelly on the gallows, the Swans just look … well, bright.
The luminous red and complimentary under-lighting are more suited to a Ralph Lauren fashion shoot than a photograph of hardened footballers.
On the other side of the liftout, however, is the seventh placed Geelong. Sporting chain gang uniforms and rugged provincial expressions, they still contain a sizeable portion of their hard-edged triple-premiership squad.
With the scary looking Paul Chapman and Josh Hunt forming the margins and a seriously intense coach in the middle they look more like winners, and certainly more fearsome, than the bright-eyed Swans.
Last year, Hawthorn – the team Sydney conquered in one of the great grand finals – also looked more like winners with ten top 20 National Draft selections in their line-up compared to Sydney’s paltry four.
Even after the Swans won the 2005 flag, the rest of the competition didn’t expect them to be a force for long and so agreed to a continuation of the $900,000 salary cap allowance for their city’s higher cost-of-living.
Their tune has changed markedly, however, since the Swans have won another premiership with a more modest outfit, and managed to recruit star forward Kurt Tippett.
Although they realise Sydney is genuinely disadvantaged in its ability to attract and retain talent, the other clubs are now calling for an end to the allowance.
The argument put forward by some officials – and Leigh Matthews last year, which was ironic considering he was vehemently critical of calls to abolish Brisbane’s allocation allowance after their three consecutive premierships – is that the Premiers should be losing players; not gaining ones the calibre of Tippett.
Last year’s team however was a result of judicious recruitment. They gathered together a group of quality players (mainly hard-working, team oriented, moderately skilled and value for money) rather than stars who cost an arm and a leg.
Also, partly thanks to the cost-of-living allowance, enough excellent players – Adam Goodes, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Jarrad McVeigh, Ryan O’Keefe, Jude Bolton, and Nick Malceski – have hung around the place long enough to be classified as veterans freeing up another $600,000.
Now the rest of the competition is getting extremely nervous.
Sydney have added Kurt Tippett to their premiership winning roster and they may even go back-to-back, but they still look like they should be modelling Ralph Lauren polos.
AJ
Guest
but without Johnson who is such a fine young player. But I'd say that Armstrong (ex-crow) who is of the same ilk will just slot in there no problem.
AJ
Guest
You mustn't have any understanding of the value of LRT. He is the ultimate utility. Fwd, Def or Ruc he can play - and is excellent below his knees meaning can even rove in the forward 50 when he's in a one-on-one. LRT's best games have been in clinchers - v Geelong 2011, the 2005 GF, 2012 GF. He really stands up in big games.
Martin
Guest
I'm not sure myself actually, perhaps I am joking. Now I am confused.
TW
Guest
Slightly off topic but involves the Swans. For the fans on here who reside in the reasonably comfortable AFL regions of Australia here is a story of how some Aussie Rules Clubs in Sydney carry on despite huge odds. The club involved gets pushed around by the other footy codes and sports and AFL Sydney itself when trying to access grounds in its area. However it has a wonderful team/club spirit which carries it through and has been successful in many ways. I hope its latest application to the local council has a positive outcome. The Swans Academy is proving a lifesaver for the club - Player wise and the "growing junior base" in its region is also a huge plus. link-- http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/uphill-climb-to-top-of-the-tree-20130324-2gnzf.html
Winston
Guest
I wouldn't worry about that. I recall reading something saying Bolton/O'Keefe just did career best time in the pre-season 3km? Goodes might take a while longer, but if he can win a grand final on one leg, I'm sure he can contribute even if he can't run :) Gosh I'm really looking forward to when Tippett is in the side. They've practically got the same team as last year plus Tippett, so don't see how anyone can underestimate this side.
Nostradamus
Guest
A lot of things went their way last year and the older players are older (Mattner,O'Keeffe, Reg, Goodes, Bolton) so they may take time to get going this year...
The Critics' Choice
Guest
Myles, you're thinking back to 2004. Since then he's been one of the Swans most reliable players.
Matt F
Roar Guru
We almost always look underdone during the pre-season. It rarely translates to the regular season. I'm sure we're not at our best but with GWS and GC in the first two rounds we've still got a few weeks before we'll need to be near our best. That's not to say that we're a certainty in any game but we shouldn't have any problems against GWS if we're at 60% and GC at 70%
teo
Guest
I would agree that we are underdone.....Most Swans fans like myself from Sydney who follow the game very very closely would never assume we are a given in the finals. There are just way to many variables to consider. I thik Richmond will have a great year this year as will other clubs that were around the 8 in 2012. I think you will find the Swans will warm into the season and hit the mark around finals and be competetive...But the boys have much wrk to do in order to be there and I think you will find they know that...
teo
Guest
yes he must be joking.....
swannies05
Roar Pro
Roberts-Thompson may not be an 'excellent player' but he has two of the best grand final performances of anyone in recent times (except of course the one and only A. McLeod in '97 and '98). As for the Swans missing the 8- RIDICULOUS As for being underdone- they will be fine come Round 3 or 4 and considering the frist two are against the Giants and the Suns... the Bloods should be sitting pretty on top of the ladder when they do hit peak fitness. You little beauty.
Sandee
Guest
Martin, can I assume that you are joking?
Myles Stedman
Roar Guru
Excellent players - Lewis Roberts-Thompson? Was that a typo or something?
Ando
Guest
-- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Ando
Guest
Martin - ditto Melbourne Storm and the NRL. There is no doubt swans will make the 8 barring half the side getting injured... -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Strummer Jones
Guest
Still think Swans supporters should temper their optimism a bit. I've a feeling they may be at risk of not even making the 8 this year, just like the Hawks a few years back after their GF win. They are clearly underdone going into round 1 and there are a lot of players carrying injuries/not 100%. Johnson is also a huge loss for the year. It shouldn't happen but an upset round 1 against GWS is not as impossible as the odds suggest.
Martin
Guest
It does seem unfair that the state of NSW, that is predominately a rugby state, should have a premiership side. I am in favour of the nationial game and expansion; however, not at the expense of rugby states taking the premiership cup -- this is not suppose to happen, they are only in the competition to make up the numbers, down at the bottom of the ladder.
PhilM
Roar Rookie
Swans again in 2013 - how good would that be! Hard to go back to back though..
Swampy
Guest
I've only realised after 10 years that you can't overrate Sydney. They are well coached, well run and have much better players than Melbourne media think. Every year they pace themselves well and play a finals brand of footy all year long. The medical staff are outstanding at getting guys through injuries and on the park at the right time. Better still the Swans have recruited team players (we'll see how Tippett goes) who join the cause readily. If they make top 4 they are always a chance to win it all. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Phelpsy
Guest
They should make the top 4. From there luck plays a large part ... But if they make the top 4 they've at least got a lottery ticket