Is the Premiership window still wide open for Sydney to defend their title?
The Swans are on track to make a good fist of defending their 2012 AFL Premiership following a gutsy victory over Hawthorn on the final day of last season.
John Longmire has a bunch of committed, courageous and disciplined players on his list and I cannot see much altering in 2013, which gives Sydney every chance of repeating their success.
The ‘Bloods’ have been able to keep hold of all their key contributors which is vital and they will get promising forward Kurt Tippett into the action midway through the season which should provide plenty of added depth.
But his arrival is not an overriding factor in whether or not the side can push for another top-four finish and have a crack at another Grand Final decider.
A lot of that relies on the second tier pushing through and developing rapidly enough to add to the star performers that are already present.
The likes of Tony Armstrong, Andrejs Everitt, Luke Parker, Sam Reid and Nick Smith will need to give a bit more in order for the Swans to really be a genuine threat.
In saying that, there is enough star quality and experience in the Sydney line-up through the likes of Ryan O’Keefe, Jarrad McVeigh, Adam Goodes, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack and Jude Bolton.
Add to that the largely underrated assets of Ted Richards, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Nick Malceski and Martin Mattner and there is recipe for further triumphs for the red and white.
Producing winning scores is not too much of a problem with the competent goalkicking abilities of Lewis Jetta, Goodes, Reid, Ben McGlynn, Kennedy, Jack and Roberts-Thomson – plus the addition of Tippett – placing Sydney in a solid position in the forward 50.
The back half is not too shabby either with the Swans able to negate their opposition into kicking the fewest points against them in the entire competition last year.
A lot of that stems from the midfield being able to win the ball at will through Kennedy, O’Keefe and McVeigh’s envious hardball work-rate which is boosted by the delivery of Jack, Jetta and Malceski. The former trio are also very adept at that particular part of the game making life as a Sydney forward relatively cushy.
There are so many superlatives to throw around when describing a team such as the Swans with their closeness as a unit, willingness to work for each other, determination to win and desperation to put their body on the line standouts as to why they were such a hit in 2012.
The familiarity and know-how of last season will only bode well for the playing group in Sydney and I feel they will give themselves every chance of pushing for another bout of silverware to add to the SCG trophy cabinet.
Key players
Jarrad McVeigh – Co-captain who is as good in the tight situation as he is running free with the ball. Continues to rack up possessions and sets such a good example with his workrate.
Josh Kennedy – Stoppage expert who was brilliant in 2013 averaging 28 disposals a game.
Ryan O’Keefe – The heart and soul of Sydney, epitomised by his 15 tackles and Norm Smith medal in the Grand Final. Capable in the midfield or up forward.
Breakout players
Luke Parker – 32-game inside midfielder who loves a contest. Expect him play a lot more in 2013 after sustaining a broken jaw and collarbone last year.
Tony Armstrong – Speedy defender with good skills who could see more action in 2013.
Promising youngsters
Gary Rohan – A really bad leg injury has set him back but he is now like a new recruit for the reigning premiers.
Tom Mitchell – 2011 draft pick who is highly rated. Injured for most of last year but will develop nicely with some regular game time.
Tim Membrey – Has been given guernsey number one. Mature body and is a chance to play early. Medium-sized lead-up forward suited to SCG.
Key inclusions
Kurt Tippett – Athletic forward from Adelaide who will provide plenty of depth. Able to pinch hit in the ruck.
Notable departures
Trent Dennis-Lane – St Kilda
Predicted finish: Third
Worth a punt
Josh Kennedy to win Brownlow: $21
Sydney to win Premiership: $7
Bogga
Guest
'Slip under the radar'?? It's modern day football. Teams study each other throughout the year and employ people to do the same with every team they play. They look at previous videos of teams and individual players throughout the week and send people to watch the games live and pick up things that the videos don't. Maybe one-eyed fans go into matches expecting victory, but the players know there is a job to do every week. No team 'slips under the radar' any more, haven't done for 5-10 years. Teams prepare professionally for an opponent no matter who they're playing. The phrase is used by myopic supporters who probably blame their own team for losing to the eventual flag winners rather than recognising the achievements of other teams (i.e. Hawthorn supporters) Swans will make the finals because they'll barely lose a game on the congested SCG, they play GWS twice. They only need to pick up a couple more games away from Sydney to make finals.
cam
Roar Rookie
i can see sydney dropping off a bit this year but still have them firmly in the 8. Its always tough to back up after winning a premiership and i dont think they will be able to slip under the radar like they did for a lot of last season.
Strummer Jones
Guest
Don't forget Swans won just 2 more games than North Mebourne last year. NM finished 8th. "Astonishing" is probably too stronger word. All I am trying to say is that they are not the 99% shoe in this year for the 8 (or even the 4) that some people think they are. Last year I predicted they would make the 8 easily and could likely be 11 lost 1 after round 12 having studied the program (I can try and find my comments, but I was one game out!). Taking everything into consideration, and that includes likely improvements at WCE, Freo, Carlton and maybe even North Melb, I think this is going to be a tougher year. If they are really underdone and somehow drop the GWS game, that will be a pretty big setback after just the one game.
TomC
Roar Guru
Yeah, Andrew was probably a bit off with Smith and Richards. I think 22% is closer to the mark than 40%. In fact it's probably more like 10%.
Andrew Slevison
Roar Rookie
I guess I meant for Smith to continue his solid form and just lumped him in that group with Everitt etc. In hindsight probably should have had him in the next group up. In regards to Richards, he is certainly a decent player after last season but simply doesn't get the fanfare around the league even after his All-Australian selection, hence the underrated call. Malceski when at his best is a vital player and I think Mattner does fly under the radar to a degree. Thanks for the feedback.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
40% chance of the Swans not making the 8?!?! There would have to be an astonishing drop off in form by most of the team for that to happen. Having said that, I'm a bit nervous about the form of the old stagers Goodes and Bolton. Goodes really didn't have a decent season last year at all, and I was surprised that Bolton didn't retire after the GF win. Will be interesting to see whether Longmire has the balls to drop either of both those players if needed.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Harsh on Nick Smith. He's been one of our best players for a long-time. He does an unheralded job but consistently keeps the oppositions best small forward quiet. He's easily one of the best small defenders in the competition. It's not so much that he needs to improve, more that the wider AFL public/media need to start giving the credit that he deserves. I'd argue that he is actually our most important defender as we don't really have anyone who can replace him. All of our other defenders are more rebound type players whereas Smith is more defensive minded and just doesn't get beaten. If we lose a tall defender e.g. Grundy in the first final and AJ with his ACL, then we can slot LRT back and don't lose anything at all. Smith is harder to replace. Apart from that I agree with what you wrote. Like every other cub who considers themselves a genuine contender for this season, the aim is to finish in the Top 4. Do that and you're a chance of winning the flag. Finals are a whole new ball game but you must finish in the Top 4 to have any chance of winning the flag.
Ando
Guest
-- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Ando
Guest
The swans are a genuine threat irrespective of whether Reid, Everitt, Armstrong give more or not. And to suggest Smith is not already doing a great job down back suggests to me you are from Melbourne and as such don't watch too many Sydney games. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Strummer Jones
Guest
Couple of things I would disagree a little with: Nick Smith was one of the Swans most reliable/consistent players last year. Personally wouldn't ask too much more form him Malceski had a woeful season and was actually dropped midway through only to get back in to replace an injured player. His best game of the year just happened to be the GF (which was clearly Hannebury's best for the year as well) I wouldnt call Mattner underrated. He rolls the dice a fair bit and gets caught a fair bit. Good player, A1 tackler, but never going to be great. At the other end of the spectrum I wouldn't call Ted Richards underrated either as he got selected in the All Australian team last year (in other words he is already rated). Big question mark over whether the Sydney local boy Tony Armstrong will ever be more than just a fringe player, but lets see. Will be interesting to see how Mitch Morton goes this year. If he never gets another game he will have one of the luckiest playing records at the Swans! Rather than bet on a premiership, I'd be more inclined to put money on Swans not making the 8 this year at $4.50. The odds suggest that's a 22% chance of happening, but I think its more like 40%.