AFL chief Andrew Demetriou has stated that if a 19th team was introduced into the AFL, it would very likely be based in Tasmania.
There is no doubt that Australia’s most southerly state deserves its own football side, certainly more than the Gold Coast or Western Sydney. Tasmania has a rich football history littered with legends like Royce Hart, Peter Hudson and Ian Stewart.
Hawthorn currently plays four games each season in Launceston and North Melbourne has two games in Hobart this year and next. But that is not good enough. Tasmania is brimming with passionate football followers who would cherish the opportunity to have their own side.
However, surely 18 teams is sufficient for the AFL? Why introduce a 19th team, further diluting the quality of the competition when there are already too many clubs in Victoria? One of those Victorian teams has to relocate.
It is hard to justify having 10 clubs in one state, particularly when four of them – Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Richmond – have been starved of success for so long.
St Kilda has secured just one premiership in more than a century of competing in the VFL/AFL and that solitary success was 47 years ago.
Melbourne has not won a flag in almost 50 years, having last tasted premiership glory in 1964. Richmond’s most recent triumph was in 1980 and they have underachieved so consistently that they last made the finals 12 years ago.
Western Bulldogs fans, meanwhile, have been waiting since 1954 for the club to win another flag. So which Victorian team should be relocated to Tasmania?
Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, Hawthorn and Geelong are powerhouse clubs with huge fan bases… they are not moving anywhere.
That leaves North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne. AFL figures released prior to Round 1 of this season showed those four clubs have by far the lowest memberships of the Victorian sides.
St Kilda (30,300 members), North Melbourne (29,000), Melbourne (29,000) and Western Bulldogs (24,112) were all well behind the next least supported Victorian side Geelong (35,182) and light years away from equaling the likes of Collingwood (70,000), Richmond (51,171) or Essendon (47,000).
North Melbourne chairman James Brayshaw has vowed the Kangaroos will not relocate while he is in that position. That is a fair call because his club is in solid shape. The Kangaroos have been a consistently good team the past two decades and are now also prospering off the field. Their membership increased an astounding 50 percent between 2007 and 2012.
The Western Bulldogs have the smallest supporter base of any Victorian club, but they play a crucial role for the AFL as the sole team in Melbourne’s working class western suburbs. It is very doubtful that the AFL would want to shift the club to Tasmania, leaving a gaping hole in the city’s west which could be exploited by its main competitor, soccer.
St Kilda, despite its 47-year premiership drought, has been reasonably successful on the field, making the finals 11 times since 1991 and qualifying for three grand finals during that period (four if you count the 2010 replay). Over the past decade they have also managed to double their membership figures.
There is no doubt Melbourne is currently the most vulnerable of the Victorian clubs. Admittedly, its bottom line and membership numbers have become far healthier in recent years thanks to the influence of the late Jim Stynes, who as club president led a successful campaign to rejuvenate the club’s finances.
But as far as football goes, Melbourne have been a joke, plummeting to new depths of mediocrity the past six years.
Since 2007, Melbourne’s best season was its finish of 12th in 2010. During that period the Demons have won just 33 of the 137 games it’s played. That is a woeful effort. Despite receiving a glut of top 10 draft picks during this trough, the club has shown zero improvement.
Meanwhile, better managed clubs like Geelong have managed to stay near the top of the ladder despite losing a raft of gun veterans and not having the luxury of draft concessions. The Cats have succeeded through canny recruiting and by instilling in their players and staff a ruthless commitment to victory. Melbourne, contrastingly, has developed an unfortunate culture of defeat and mismanagement.
The advantage of relocating to Tasmania a crisis-stricken club like Melbourne is that it would provide a fresh start. A new board, a new coaching panel, and a reinvigorated playing group could forge their own legacy, freed from the baggage that would otherwise weigh them down at the MCG.
It would be sad to see the end of any of the Victorian clubs. But by relocating to Tasmania they could morph into something greater while in the process thrilling a state of ravenous football followers.
The AFL would almost certainly provide the new club with extra draft picks and a larger salary cap, just as it did for Gold Coast and GWS. While such offerings would not likely be as generous as those handed to the Suns or GWS, they would give the Tasmanian side a running start, given it would have a full player list from the relocated Victorian club to build upon.
Despite being gutted by the demise of their club, supporters of the relocated team would have a new side to barrack for and, no doubt, a fair proportion of them would get behind the Tasmanian outfit.
This big group of fans, when combined with thousands of local Tasmanian supporters, would give the fledgling club a strong start-up fan base.
Exactly which Victorian club should relocate is difficult to say. It would require a team of individuals more qualified than myself to pore over club finances and analyse a plethora of internal and external issues at each club before a wise choice could be made. Negotiations with the Tasmanian Government would further complicate the matter.
But for the good of the AFL and for the people of Tasmania, a Victorian team should relocate. And they should relocate soon.
William
Guest
Personally, I think that the Demons should be relocated to Adelaide. With the new stadium at Adelaide Oval clubs will be far more viable in South Australia than when the games were played in the middle of nowhere at Football Park. It would be nice to see Norwood in the AFL. I would have always preferred the Redlegs over the Crows. I always wonder how Norwood fans can support the Crows who are a symbol of Port Adelaide's dominance of South Australian football but I guess that boat sailed long ago. The Western Bulldogs could be relocated to the North Eastern suburbs of Adelaide which house a large population of working class people and significant interest in football (and soccer). The club could be essentially Central Districts, a brand that is fond in the hearts of the North East. The Demons could also be relocated to Tasmania and have a slight name adjustment to the Tasmanian Devils. I like the Idea of home games being split 5-5 between Launceston and Hobart. Both cities have far too few people to support the team alone but having only 5 games in each city a year makes the games an event rather than something to do on the weekend. The team wont take the name of either city but the state, a symbol of the contribution Tasmania has made to Australian Football. If the divide is too problematic than they can do without. Maybe we should simply let some clubs fold? It will raise the quality of the matches and improve the lower levels of competition around the nation, in turn producing better players.
Blaine Harris
Guest
I'm Victorian and i believe there are too many clubs in Victoria i would say 5 are safe due to supporter base and there names they are Collingwood,Essendon,Carlton,Gellong because they represent a city and Melbourne because of there history and the AFL wants a club called Melbourne. I expect the Kangas to go to Tasmania and hypothetically the Hawks could go to Canberra the saints to Northern Queensland and the Dogs to Perth or something and the tigers to Glenelg and maybe a Darwin side if an indoor stadium is built to combat the heat.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
You make a good point about the relatively weak crowd draws that result from having often low-profile teams play against the Hakws or North in Tas. If the Hakws were playing Essendon/Carlton/Collingwood/Richmond at Launceston I'm sure they'd get a big crowd but as you point out the likes of Freo and Port are not big drawcards.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
@ thebgl...WA is certainly the fastest growing State in Oz and mad for AFL but I think 3 teams could be overkill for the moment. I personally think the competition should not expand beyond 18 teams any time soon because it just spreads the talent too thin. I think that has already occurred as a result of the increase from 16 to 18 teams and would only get worse if another team was introduced in the next few years.
Tas Rules
Guest
Personal opinion from Sydney is fine. I guess those who formulated the Business case had at least done some homework on the issue. Current AFL attendances in Tasmania probably reflect the tiredness of the same old teams being trotted out, neither Hawthorn or North Melbourne are our own teams. People will only go to so many Port Adelaide or Freo games after all. They are here to make money then go back home. That can only work for so long. You can only tell people to turn up for so long before they question the value of it to them. Right now people are questioning that value. The difference between the North & South of the Island is oft used by naysayers. Tasmanians support their own teams quite well. I'm sure 1/2 million footy supporters & being in the national competition, a Tassie team would quite ok. Certainly better than some others have done.
thebgl
Guest
@Tas Rules: I stand by my comments on this issue. I am not denying the existence of a strong Aussie Rules culture in Tasmania, I am arguing the economics and potential support (from the several big companies/corporations based down there and the public) from across the whole state. The crowds for AFL games in Hawthorn has dropped off as Hobart people are not going north to watch the games like they were a few years ago. I am sure the majority of fans in Northern Tasmania would not be travelling down to Bellerive Oval (Blundstone Arena) in Hobart to watch games if Hawthorn ended their commitment to playing premiership matches at York Park (Aurora Stadium). You have to face the facts, as long as there is an ageing population with a North/South divide in Tassie it will undermine any application for a future team's admission to the AFL. I understand the fans in Northern Tasmania are sick of seeing games against Fremantle or the same other teams that have already played down there frequently in recent years, but they need to keep showing up to games no matter which sides are playing if they want to show how died in the wool they are to the AFL top brass. By the way, most of the Tasmanians I have met in Tassie and on the mainland support Victorian teams. The Tassie expats would have a soft spot for a team from where they grew up, but they are pretty loyal supporters towards their existing clubs. This situation is the same in Adelaide and Perth where a sizeable percentage of people don't support the local AFL teams yet are mad about Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond, Nth Melbourne, etc.
Tas Rules
Guest
Making comment like "I dont think Tasmania has the population, or the corporate support" flies in the face of the fact that the application made in 2008 shows otherwise. Also Tasmania has a died in the wool Aussie rules culture. I'm sure 515,000 Tasmania with the many others living interstate would support the team with a passion. We have two small & efficient stadiums cost wise so I think we would do well. Certainly better than other clubs seem to be doing.
Deep Thinker
Guest
Don't forget that there are a lot of Australian's in NZ. Not completely out of the question.
thebgl
Guest
Also...while I can understand why the AFL put a second team in Sydney based on population and economics of Western Sydney, they would have been better of putting the new team in Canberra. I see more people down here wearing GWS Giants merchandise than anywhere in Sydney's west, not to mention there is more genuine interest in Aussie Rules Football in the Canberra area and adjacent Riverina and Far South Coast regions of NSW. Although Canberra now is a Rugby Union and Rugby League area thanks to the past success of the Raiders NRL team in the late 1980s and early 1990`s and recent success of the Brumbies Super Rugby franchise over the past 15 years, I see a lot more Aussie Rules Football fields in Canberra and locals wearing team jerseys or AFL bumper stickers on their cars compared to anywhere in Sydney.
thebgl
Guest
I have been reading all the comments on here. Some very good points being made by most people. I don`t think Tassie has the population or enough corporate backing to support an AFL team at this point in time. Although I am from Sydney (now based in Canberra doing a University degree), I have been to Tasmania and the reports I heard from people across Tasmania is that the North and South don`t get along at times. It is not like catholic and protestants in Northern Ireland but there is a sense in the North of Tassie that the State Government favours Hobart and the surrounding areas while Northern Tasmania comes off second best. I would like to add some more proposals to this discussion. Something I would like to add regarding expansion based on putting a team in traditional aussie rules football market with a growing population and strong financial backing from corporate and other sources...A 3rd team in Western Australia entering the competition in 2017 or 2018 would have to be the most logical choice for a new team. The current population of Perth is around 1.8 million - 1.9 million people. The state of Western Australia has a population of almost 2.5 million people. The team can be based in Perth`s North Western corridor around the Joondalup area (and suburbs to the North such as Mindarie and Clarkson covering a potential supporter zone that could reach as far as 400 km north to Geraldton) where WAFL team West Perth Falcons are now located. There is a fast growing population in this area with lots of young families moving here, due largely in part to the Mining boom. Various mining businesses have already told the men running Rugby League they want to support an NRL team based in Perth. I am sure a most of those businesses would get behind a new AFL club in WA if given the opportunity.
SWANNY
Guest
A new tassie team would be a great idea, but then you have 19 AFL teams, so you need to create another one. There is the option of having a Hobart team and a Launceston team but theres no enough population. Northern Territory is another option but again population too small, or you could create a third WA side based in Karratha for all the miners to support. The last option is a team in New Zealand, yes it sounds crazy but like we saw 2 weeks ago, quite a few locals turned up to the game as well as all the aussie expats. A team in NZ and in Tassie would make the fixturing easier too You could simply play every team once, the comp will be better off and fairer as well
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
That is the most likely setup should this occur.
Norm
Guest
Attendance today only 10,265.........but better than Parramatta's 9,1567
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Well said Rufus!
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Richard has a very interesting local insight though. I've read all his comments and he is definitely passionate.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Richard I think it is inevitable. It might not be soon but in 50 years when there are 1 million plus people in Tassie do you think there will still be no team there?
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
That's the spirit Jason! I'm jealous that you've lived in Austin...it looks like an awesome city!
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Absolutely the VFL teams have as much right to be in the competition...they are equals. But several of them are very vulnerable.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Yeah Aurora is the better surface for AFL I think. Good win by the Roos though.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Haha If I had known you were a Pies fan I wouldn't have agreed with you! Boo Collingwood Boo!