Throughout more than a decade of covering AFL for the Sydney Morning Herald, I was frequently asked questions about the game, but none as regularly as the one which – despite my departure from the newspaper – has continued to follow me.
It’s a simple, yet popular query, posed by both fans and foes of the game: “Will GWS make it?”
There are a few versions: Will GWS survive? Is GWS a waste of time? Will GWS ever be successful?
But the question about the future of the AFL’s newest club is effectively the same.
And despite common sense arguing with me, my answer over the years since the Giants were little more than a glint in the eye of AFL chief executive, Andrew Demetriou, has been the same.
Yes, they will make it/survive/be successful, because the AFL won’t have it any other way.
As the club makes its way through it’s second season, I stand by that assessment, although I know other like-minded souls in the sport have wavered in recent times.
The facts are these.
Firstly, it’s not about winning a war of the codes in Western Sydney. It never was, but it was good publicity.
Rugby league will always be the premier sport out west, but as the Wanderers showed this year in the A-League, there is abundant room for other codes to succeed and nurture support for their own games.
GWS have almost 12,000 members, nearly 2,000 more than they managed in their opening season. Their merchandise sells well, and I know of many AFL fans west of Homebush who would love to have their own team to follow.
But when will they follow?
Having seen it all before, the reality is Sydney does like winners, and it’s still going to be some time before the Giants are winners.
I have no doubt there are AFL fans in western Sydney who follow the Swans, and could jump to the Giants at some point.
But tell me, would you switch from supporting a team which is always in the finals, to one unlikely to be there for some time? Well, maybe, but not just yet anyway.
Some initial projections with the talent they would be able to stockpile from the drafts, were the club would be pushing for a flag in five years. We’re not hearing those same suggestions at the moment.
I have no doubt they will snatch a win or two in 2013, just where and when it will come I’m not so sure. The two teams they beat last season – Gold Coast and Port Adelaide – have both taken steps up in 2013, and both have already beaten the Giants.
Melbourne was tagged a potential winning game, and it looked promising for three quarters, only to end in disappointment. But they will catch someone off guard.
A high-flying Essendon, in Melbourne, this week – with Giants’ captain Phil Davis and forward Setanta O’hAilpin to miss through injury – could potentially be ugly, and from then on you wouldn’t be backing GWS in too many of the upcoming matches until perhaps Round 19 at home against Melbourne.
Winning seasons at this time seem a long, long way away.
It was pleasing to see chief executive David Matthews recently quoted saying they would try and sign two or three mature-aged recruits for 2014.
They badly need them. But, while money talks, it will still be interesting to see which quality mature players, answer in the affirmative.
While their membership base is solid across Sydney and Canberra, translating that to decent crowds will continue to be a challenge for the Giants until they can consistently be competitive enough to be a chance in most games.
And because the 12,000 members are split across Sydney and Canberra (and elsewhere), it appears Canberra members go to Canberra games, and Sydney members to Sydney games, and very few both.
The 6,832 who turned up in Canberra last weekend for the loss to the Gold Coast – the smallest AFL crowd at the venue since games began being played there in 1998 – was not a promising sign for the season, nor a good look for the club and game.
The 11,092 for the St Kilda game two weeks earlier at the same venue was however encouraging.
How many arrive for their first game at Skoda in two weeks against Adelaide will be interesting.
But anyway, back to point, the question which follows me.
Yes, I still think they will make it. Yes it is still going to take time. Yes, it’s going to be a bit longer than many first thought, and yes, eventually, they will have a strong fan base in Sydney who will come to the games and watch them win.
Those are the easy answers.
The hard question to answer is how rough will the ride be for players, officials and fans before they do actually make it.
The Roar welcomes Michael Cowley as an expert writer on the site. Michael spent 30 years working with the Sydney Morning Herald, covering a variety of sports and events including Olympics, World Championships and football grand finals. He covered AFL for more than a decade.
Jez
Guest
Funny all this talk..not dissimilar to all the talk surrounding the swans 20yrs ago. Funny how times change. I'd bet my house on it that the giants will be a success. Crowds & premierships are around the corner! All this criticism coming from rugby and soccer flogs is pretty rich..when u have a comp that gets AVERAGE crowds of 35000+ then u can critise.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Canberra sport fans are fickle, I should know I live here. Examples of this is when the Raiders and Brumbies are doing bad the whole team puts a knife in their back. When the teams are doing well everyone gets around the players as if they are heroes. It'll be the same here in Canberra, majority of the crowds that filled the seats at the St.Kilda game were Saints supporters hoping to see the teams first win. Until GWS is successful they won't pull the crowds in it's sad to say.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
i actually feel like they have very little to offer the region that other sporting teams are not already offering. I think they are doomed to be a money pit for years, and I think the AFL have failed. I dont know when they will turn it around but I think it could be 10 years from now, which is too long, and too expensive. one thing people fail to see, is that the AFL have money *now*....what about in 10 years? or 20? You can't crack every market. Swans as I explain below some 75k max one would think. embarrassing for something as loud and obnoxious as the AFL. __ daryl, you forget that back in the day, the swans did not come in and basically insult everyone and tried to steal things, ect and insult peoples intelligence. this is the AFL's vietnam. The trouble is, in 2011/12 rugby league, the sleeping giant stood up. In 2013, the Juggernaut took its first lumbering step. 250% increase in central revenue virtually overnight. And plans and increases, and crowds like never before. Up on web traffic, up in revenue, up in crowds, up on tv.... the nrl average has virtually doubled since 1998. its on course to be avg 30k per match in 10 years. The NRL has more blue sky in front of it. In AFL I only see problems and limitation, because the NRL has a solid expansion lined up for perth in a far less resistant market than Sydney is for the GWS. You tried to kick us while we were down (we all heard and read it and saw it) and you tried to strangle us in western sydney (and apply all this to soccer as well)...people worked it out, you want to have oz all to yourself.... ....and the slogan 'australia's game' is highly insulting to most people. Yeh, and I am just telling you how it really is. Outside your little AFL-bubble, people want you to wake up.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
omg, spare me. they are playing worse than GWS for starters. Parramatta are one team that will skyrocket. They have that much dormant support, GWS would be shocked. they drew 75k to one of their matches in 2009 i think it was and the entire region was "buzzing" on parramatta eels for months before and after -- what a short memory you have.. dont you worry about parramatta.....buddy
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
mate, you don't have to be insecure to have such an opinion. You can't just try and walk over the top of everyone People must beat monopolies with a stick until they bleed out. This is what people do. And the AFL has shown time and time again it doesn't want to share - even when they say they do. People pick up on this, and they don't want AFL doubly so. Western Sydney will be a money pit for AFL with no ladder out. Keep pumping it in, meanwhile NRL and soccer will be making money, lifting crowds I predict soccer to be number 2 sport in 2040, with rugby league at number 1 (but league being number 1 by 2030 in all metrics). Afl's day is done. And the thing about that is that the AFL (and no one else) brought it about. Its crumbling. in 5 years I think many of the consequences of the actions of this year and the last 2 will be felt. __ And INSTEAD OF GETTING ANGRY AT THE AFL, you support them blindly. Its how the AFL has conditioned you no doubt. You guys should be marching -- its NOT a competition anymore, its a synthetic reality tv show
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
dude,. mat's post is true and on the mark. I know many people and have into many more who think just like he has. They dont't want to be force fed AFL - sick of seeing it in the papers, from a base of some 70k people. Its ludicrous and NO, money cant buy you everything. Welcome to Nam, and by the way, thats 200m, is like a Brisbane tunnel , it will be 1 billion before you have a significant effect. Im not joking - it will be like Northern Scotland or Ireland. You WON'T CRACK IT meanwhile the nrl is more popular far sooner in melbourne than swans are in sydney.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
nonsense. so how many soccer juniors are life long supporters? I played baseball in my youth, but do I support openly any baseball team? I played soccer and cricket too. never catch me supporting them directly.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
lol the broncos and most clubs (maybe not melbourne central or sydney central clubs) bu the broncos have about 500-1000 promotional ticktes each week for radio and newspaper and corportate "winners" of various competitions and work events. lol, thats the fun thing for many people. gawd, dont be so harsh because its rugby league. keep going oikee!
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
Of course there is only one way to go. But thats like saying "the sun will rise tomorow" is it not a self affirming statement? But I mentioned a more even comp, not a synthetic one, and someone ridiculed the suggestion. the only question you will be left answering is this---->> : will people care if they win a synthetic comp they were penciled into to win 6 years in advance? BY then, it will be a laugh. People are not stupid. There is only one sport setting up its comp to be the best in this country, and its not from melbourne.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
such a dubious claim, Ahmed. yeh sure, all those auskickers who were suckered in by afl marketing, had it come to the school, ect, yeh right, just like all those soccer juniors -- they goto A league games each week.....and buy foxtel to watch a league. for sure.....auskick.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
what a joke. look at the basketball teams in sydney. and yatching? overnight? we didn't love yachting, we loved beating big america for once. name one person you've met you loves yachting? its very simplistic to say someone loves a winner.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
There it NOT is, Australian Rules. Nice little alternate argument. How about you address the actual topic? The man was talking about different commentators, dermet, and an afl official, not necessarily the CEO of the AFL. Then, you realigned his context for him. He is talking about popularity -- while you are talking about being slighted. AFL is caught with its pants down.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
I like 'warm the jets' and 'Australian rules little spat far above, it raises a big point. AFL support in sydney is very low. Still -- after 30 years. Australian Rules said that he didnt really like Warm the Jets. Reckoned he's a soccer troll. Well, A-Rules, He's a lot like you in the rugby league section of the website, isnt he? Gee, familiarity breeds contempt hey, especially when you in this case are looking in the mirror at yourself..... __ You can spin it anyway you like, 37k in sydney!! I think you need to read that as much as possible. NOT everyone has foxtel, only 1 third of households. So, lets say that there were 50k more on foxtel watching. Thats 80k -- after 30 years. Not good enough. And I am probably inflating that. A closer look, at the risk of getting a bigger number , but lets see anyway (I will try as I have nothing against AFL, to get a bigger number) 37k in sydney out of 1 million lets say (ratings, not viewers, 990 was the highest ever). And then consider that those who have foxtel would be 1 third of households in sydney (and we may be counting twice, but anyway....) ...that would suggest that 600,000 people have foxtel in sydney...but high rating AFL and NRL matches get rougly 400k. So the percentage of 37k from 1 million is. 0.037%....and lets use that in the 600k foxtel figure = 22,000..... so all up, going by the level of popularity from FTA, thats a total of about 50,000 people watching the swans, plus 25 at the ground, = 75,000 interested people. 30 years. Its truly amazing though--- that the AFL gets so much coverage in sydney in the papers, on tv, live fta, simulcast, money thrown at it, 3 decades of effort, and only 75k interest (we suppose) week to week. BUT when people flirt with it, you get 990k around 2006, and 660 last year. But people flirt, yet they never F - if you take my meaning. Yes. ___ So in my response to the article, I say, well done on the article, however -- I don't believe the AFL will let them fail, but at the end of the day it could get really grim. Starting new is one thing, but to gain momentum from here is going to be years of hard, continuous work. And will it be worth it. My spin on this tale is not a positive one. Good on the AFL for trying. what else is there to do really. If the swans are getting 75k week to week interest roughly, then what on earth will the gsw get week to week? * See, it must be around 25k atm..... * so this is why I took offence (not personal) at a comment made to say "warm the Jets" comments were nonsense about clubs losing 20% year on year -- he just made the wrong club, he should have said gws, and maybe he meant that. I think the GSW's road is long and gloomy. Thats not a positive for me. Such a tough ask. I think the AFL was afflicted by hubris. This is just my opinion * I do not beleive in roy morgan polls, ect, i think they are rubbish and you can't sample something like sporting support properly in a survey for varying reasons.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
Here come the warm jets:: nice spin you put on that one. The fact remains that no one in sydney ever really wanted the team. It might be bankrolled by the AFL, but it will be a money pit. With no ladder out of it.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
Long john silver, not to burst any bubbles, but a canberra team would not be viable in the AFL. for many reasons, including market saturation, lack of support, ect. Your premise that they climb gloriously to number 1 - i do believe you carried out that fantasty and built a situation to fit it. not to be bad, but we all make these logical failures at times. even myself. but I can assure you canberra AFL won't be for a long time, if ever.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
You would be naive to think this kind of rorting does not go on. I want to add one more thing: rugby union conversation (paraphrasing but context correct, as facts) "So how much money would it take to make this a ground record and take it *off of* the NRL?" SFS Of course the GSW and gold coast crowds are inflated. Its the thing to do for smaller matches because people don't/cant think critically, or go to the lengths. I have heard many conversations however about people saying the AFL crowds are inflated. I only know they want to give the impression.
Daryl Adair
Guest
Some pertinent news today: the opening of the Tom Wills training ground at Olympic Park. Story and video here: http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/2013-05-06/giants-honour-tom-wills
Simmo
Guest
It's true though
Simmo
Guest
who cares? Comparing Sydney AFL to Melbourne RL is a tallest dwarf competition. There are no real winners
Daryl Adair
Guest
Lots of interesting (and not so interesting) discussion here. As an old bloke and someone living in Western Sydney, I cast my mind back to the early 1980s when South Melbourne relocated to "become" the (Eastern suburbs) Sydney Swans. They were pretty hopeless on the field for 10 years and just as bad off it. In the 1990s things slowly picked up; they recruited some players with form and reputation and started to play the "hard at it" brand of football the Swans are so famous for today. But it took until 2005 to win a flag. That's a good 25 years until "real" success was tasted. And, thankfully, repeated in 2012. The sort of discussions here could well have been transplanted back in time to the early 1980s and the start of the Sydney Swans. Few people here or in the major Aussie Rules states gave them much of a chance to make inroads into the Sydney sports market, yet alone win games. The Greater Western Sydney Giants will take years to be really competitive - but hopefully less than the ten years it took the Swans. The approach is different: rather than relocating an existing club, it's about starting with a bunch of highly ranked youngsters and a few old hands. As with anything in Sydney, when success comes their way so will crowds. I've seen with the Parramatta Eels and I saw it last year with the Western Sydney Wanderers. Let me assure you, there is great anticipation in this part of the city for sports teams to do well. Some will flourish quicker than others; others - like the Eels - will promised an rarely deliver. But it's giving this part of the city a bit of a buzz that was absent just two years ago. A long journey lies ahead for the Giants, but they have something positive to add to this region, as did the Wanderers last season and Parra a few seasons back.