Many British rugby scribes are trumpeting the Lions’ pack, predicting they will steam-roll the Wallabies in the three-Test series.
Think again fellas, the Lions’ men-mountain will have their hands full Down Under.
The tale of the tape and the scales among the tight five provide the proof.
Lions props in cms and kgs:
180 – 130 – Mako Vunipola
180 – 122 – Matt Stevens
188 – 120 – Gethin Jenkins
183 – 120 – Adam Jones
183 – 118 – Dan Cole
183 – 112 – Cian Healy
185 – 109 – Ryan Grant
Total 731 kgs
Wallaby contenders in cms and kgs:
189 – 120 – Ben Alexander
188 – 120 – Sekope Kepu
189 – 120 – Paddy Ryan
185 – 117 – James Slipper
183 – 113 – Benn Robinson
180 – 112 – Dan Palmer
183 – 112 – Greg Holmes
Total 714 kgs
Behemoth Vunipola gives the Lions an edge, depending on how many minutes he’s on duty.
Lions hookers:
183 – 114 – Richard Hibbard
185 – 110 – Dylan Hartley
175 – 102 – Tom Youngs
Total 326 kgs
Wallaby hookers:
181 – 113 – Tatafu Polota-Nau
185 – 112 – Stephen Moore
187 – 103 – Saia Fainga’a
Total 328 kgs
Line ball, perhaps a shade in the Wallabies’ favour.
Now the telling numbers.
Lions locks:
208 – 128 – Richard Gray
198 – 119 – Alun-Wyn Jones
203 – 116 – Ian Evans
198 – 114 – Geoff Parling
198 – 110 – Paul O’Connell
Total 587 kgs
Wallaby locks:
202 – 123 – Kane Douglas
203 – 120 – Siteleki Timani
201 – 118 – Hugh Pyle
201 – 117 – James Horwill
200 – 115 – Rob Simmons
Total 593 kgs
Not a lot in that either, but Gray at 208cm has a significant lineout advantage, again depending on game time.
To offset that, all five Wallaby contenders are 200cm or taller, giving the men-in-gold a far wider spread.
The crucial factor will be the Wallaby hooker finding his lineout target on a regular basis. That, as we all know, is a lottery.
Where the Wallabies will enjoy a huge advantage is the backrow, and especially the flankers.
None of the Lions 7s and 6s – skipper Sam Warburton, Tom Croft, Dan Lydiate, Sean O’Brien, and Justin Tipuric – can match George Smith, Michael Hooper, or Liam Gill for reading the play, speed around the park, and ferreting.
Smith is still the maestro open-side flanker, with the two youngsters learning fast.
And you can bank on Ben Mowen, Wycliff Palu, or Scott Higginbotham to out-play the Lions’ selected 8s – Toby Faletau and Jamie Heaslip.
So we are set for a bone-crunching series of collisions up-front – a look at the backs tomorrow.
Colin N
Guest
It's amazing how short memories are. 2009 and 2001?
Atawhai Drive
Guest
Not always, Tui, not by any means.
Tui
Guest
The Lions are what they have always been a big brutal pack but with average backs.
A Different Cat.
Guest
Former OS. Australia has won 5 games against the Lions. The Lions have won 15 against Australia. I dont agree that having Welsh players in the squad means that Australua has the advantage because Wales got beaten by a razor thin margin in all of the 4 tests in 2012. Infact those Welsh players strengthen the squad with their knowledge of Australia and know they are capable of beating them. Wales should have won at least 2 of those 4 and the players will know that. The fact that the Lions havnt won a series since 97 is completely irrelevant.
A Different Cat.
Guest
Colin N
Guest
Indeed, I just chose the obvious ones because, although Hooper, Gill and Smith are great athletes, they can't match Croft and Tipuric for speed. As for O'Brien, though, I'm a huge fan but I don't think you get the best out of him at seven and, maybe with the Lions having genuine opensides, that will allow O'Brien to move to blindside and bring the best out of him. He can be a destructive force at his best.
PiratesRugby
Guest
The Waratahs have the biggest pack in Australian rugby and they are going nowhere. On your analysis we should not pick James Horwill because there are heavier and taller second rowers to take his place.
Lilrossy
Guest
Yes, just look at McCaw in 2011... lol
PxD
Guest
Wet as in slippery ball or wet as in quagmire? The former is an issue for both backlines and the latter is no longer relevant as the drainage and roofs take that out of the equation. Fitness however will be the undoing of the Lions - the Wallabies from the Reds and Brumbies are possibly the fittest players in world Rugby (possible exception of the Chiefs) - the last quarter of each game will be an eternity for the Lions with Hooper and Mowen as the swap in/drop in replacements in the forwards.
colvin
Guest
It's congratulations, of course, to Sam Warburton for winning appointment as Lions skipper, but you have to wonder, given his age of 24. When you look at the last few big rugby occasions the skippers have been old, grizzled and experienced. Look at Richie McCaw at the 2011 RWC. The 2007 RWC was John Smit for SA. The 2003 RWC was England's Martin Johnson. Great teams which pull off great results at the very top level all have great captains. When the pressure comes on the captain has to be someone who's been there before and knows how to take charge. I wonder whether Sam Warburton has enough of that on-field bloody mindedness to really pull it out in the end.
formeropenside
Guest
WB, I still think it is easier to beat the Lions over a 3-test home series than SA or AB's. The only reason its a great big deal is the money.
Dean Vincent
Guest
Rather strange comment. The point re the 7s is a matter of opinion. I concede with Palu you have a point. Faletau was not at his best in that series and at the start of the northern season he was way off the pace but he's young and learning all the time so I wouldn't read a great deal into last years games Lydiate/Higginbotham? Higginbotham may have shaded it but there are other 6s in the squad aside from Lydiate and there was little between Lydiate and Higginbotham anyway in my opinion. What is the relevance of TPN outplaying his opposite number? Matthew Rees and Ken Owens aren't even in the Lions squad. Timani outplayed the Welsh locks???? What on his own? You must have was watched different games to me. Again though Bradley Davies and Luke Charteris who played in the first test last year aren't in the Lions squad. The December test didn't include Timani or any locks in the Lions squad. So to turn your question on its head why will Australia be better on that "evidence"?!?!
Lilrossy
Guest
Yeah... you're using Spies as an example.. Spies is an awful show pony and undeserved of his Springbok let alone Bulls spot. You're missing the point. All professionals lift weights, correct. Some players have natrual strength though, while others (majority of the Wallaby forward pack) do not. They have conditioned, fake muscle. Similar to body builder muscle and yes, Pierre Spies muscle - which is weak.
Justin2
Guest
Its got less to do with toughness, more to do with technique and nous to play the game.
Rod
Guest
Lilrossy how does Mowen's fake 20 kg compare with Spies gym buffed body. or did that just come naturally. Most union, league, hell even AFL footballer these days start lifting weight in there mid teens. All rugby players have fake gym muscles. Very few are just naturally massive. Though I do agree with your general comments.
Lilrossy
Guest
Can't edit my comment for some reason. Natural size and strength will always beat a player like Ben Mowan for example, who was a skinny lock/8th man before putting on a fake 20 kilos a couple of years ago.
Lilrossy
Guest
Lol, what a noob article. You often get bigger Wallaby packs than the Springboks, they still got dished up front though. It isn't about fake gym muscle, it is about ingrown toughness.
Rusty
Roar Guru
As long as Adam Jones stays off the chocolates then the Wobs are in for some heat up front.
rl
Guest
AD, you are on fire lately!!!
Pyes
Guest
David Lord - how is this guy an expert? There's not one single piece of good rugby knowledge in here - just a bunch of erroneous comparisons and trumped up opinions all tied together with spelling mistakes that suggests the author doesn't know who he's talking about. When the differences are so negligible, height and weight having nothing to do with forward dominance - motivation and technique are far more influential factors. Australia does have a competent front 5 on its day (and more so when Horwill is fit) but their problem is consistency - they never have their forward pack firing consistently together. Higginbotham, and Palu are still woefully up and down and they are supposed to account for Australia's go forward. Australia have 7 covered nicely but you need your loose forwards to work as a unit and George Smith can't cover everyone. You can put most of Australia's props in the inconsistency bin too. However, in saying that, I think the Wallabies will win this tour - they have too much fire power in the backs and their forwards should be motivated enough to front for 3 tests. The main factor, however, is the fact that it's in Australia and home advantage counts for a lot, esp on long tours.