The Wallabies have a number of advantages in their favour at the moment as they prepare to host the British and Irish Lions – the first being the Lions’ squad.
Big and strong yes, but largely one-dimensional and conservative.
No Johnny Wilkinson, who has the experience of winning in Australia, and they are only taking two fly-halves, neither of whom are in their best form right now.
Several players who could have added some variety and flair, some dash and bit of the unknown, were overlooked.
Try-scoring speed merchant Christain Wade, dynamic Irish back Simon Zebo and English pair Freddie Burns and Billy Twelvetrees all could have added something different to the Lions style. The same with Steffon Armitage and fleet-footed scrum-half Danny Care, who should also count himself unlucky.
Warren Gatland has gone for a lumbering, physical presence, so the Wallabies should know exactly what they’re in for.
The captain, Sam Warbuton, has also been a controversial choice. Some doubt surrounds his suitability as skipper, a role he has struggled with before, and this could be an issue for the Lions later on.
The pressure on the 24-year old will be intense, and there already has been some criticism from the English and Irish quarters.
Apart from being at home, the Wallabies will be basically back at full strength at last. Touch wood at the moment, there is almost no serious injuries to contend with and many of these players are in great form.
The return of Will Genia and James Horwill to the green and gold is massive. Genia is the world’s best 9 and captain Horwill will add steel and smarts to a what has become a troublesome second row.
Fellow Queenslander Rob Simmons is also in impressive form, so an all-Reds locks line-up appears likely.
David Pocock is of course out, and he will be missed. But if there is any position the Wallabies have real depth in, it is at openside flanker.
George Smith is back and can fill the job superbly. Smith is the complete footballer. And then there are young guns Michael Hooper and Liam Gill to back him up as well.
At 8 there is Wycliff Palu, Scott Higginbotham and Ben Mowen fighting it out. All are good candidates.
At 6 Dave Dennis and the barnstorming Fotu Auelua are ready to go, with Higginbotham also able to play on the blindside flank.
Tahs Kane Douglas and Sitaleki Timani add to the options in the second row, alongside Hugh McMeniman if fit, while the Australian front row is in better shape than it has been in recent years.
Young props Scott Sio and Paddy Ryan are doing well and pushing for spots, while both the Brumbies and Waratahs starting 1, 2 and 3 will probably provide the bodies.
In the backs, the fly-half position is getting crowded.
Does Robbie Deans forgive Quade Cooper and pick him, because Cooper and partner-in-crime Will Genia work so well together?
Or does he put the versatile James O’Connor in at 10, who has been playing strongly in that role for the Rebels?
Or does he go with Kurtley Beale, recently back to full fitness, who filled the playmaker slot so admirably in the European tour at the end of last season?
Berrick Barnes is also now ready to make his way back on the field and throw his name into the hat.
It’s a good dilemma for Deans to have.
In the centres Adam Ashley-Cooper is having a great season, Christian Lealiifano is on fire, Pat McCabe has returned from injury and Ben Tapuai started the year very well for the Reds but has, admittedly, dipped a little of late.
Add Rob Horne and Anthony Faingaa into that 12 and 13 mix.
At fullback and on the wings, Digby Ioane is a lock for one wing spot and then you have Joe Tomane, Israel Folau, Jesse Mogg, Nic Cummins and Drew Mitchell fighting out for the other spot.
Tomane has to be a strong contender because of his blistering Brumby form. Folau gets better every week, has that X-factor and is line for either 15 or a wing jersey, while Cummins and Mitchell are coming back from long stints out of action.
And then you thrown in the mix of 10s – if Beale or O’Connor miss out at five-eighth, expect them to appear at either fullback, on the flank or on the bench.
It’s hard to remember when Robbie Deans had this type of strength to choose from. It’s also hard to remember the last time two Australia sides were up around the top of the Super Rugby table.
The performances of the Brumbies and Reds this season, under the brilliant coaching of Jake White and Ewen McKenzie, can only be a good thing for the Wallabies.
You add in the Waratahs, who are starting to climb the table now and come good under the influence of new coach Michael Cheika, and a ray of optimism shines across Australian rugby.
The shape of the Lions tour, in terms of its structure and design, is also in the Wallabies’ favour.
The Lions start off with the pointless game against the Barbarians in Hong Kong, followed by matches against the Force, the Reds, combined NSW-Queensland Country, the Waratahs and then the Brumbies before the first Test.
Strangely, there is only one other mid-week game, versus the Rebels between Tests one and two, left in the tour. It will be hard for any of the Lions players outside the regular 22 to get any more game time after the Brumbies match.
The Lions will arrive at Suncorp for the first Test with the Wallabies battered and bruised after six tough games. In the case of the Force, there’s a very good chance their team will be completely full strength when they the face the Lions in Perth on June 5.
The Lions could be in for a real battle with Matt Hodgson, Ben McCalman, Richard Brown, Chris Alcock and co. offering the kind of sturdy opposition the Waratahs gave them back in 2001.
The design of the Lions tour weirdly sees virtually all of the provincial matches at the very start and then the three Tests right at the very end. This gives Gatland little time for experimentation after the first Test.
While there are some positive signs for the green and gold, it would be foolish for the Wallabies to be over-confident.
The Lions will be no pushovers. They are backed by huge support and are burned by their experience in South Africa four years ago, losing a series they never should have lost.
Their motivation will be storng. The Wallabies also seem to never play well when they have have the favourites tag.
All in all, this should be a fascinating series and one the Australians, on home soil and in good touch, should win 2-1.
Unless they cannot stand up to the rough onslaught the Lions will dish out, or heavy rain mars all threet Tests in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, an air of quiet confidence may be appropriate for the Wallaby faithful come June-July.
Follow John Davidson on Twitter @johnnyddavidson
ScotandProud
Guest
Yeah I struggle with the squad the Lions have picked. Especially in midfield = 2 fly halves is a mistake and from what I can see they've picked a bunch of piano players in the forwards and a bunch of piano shifters in the backs. The Wales midfield is not that subtle or creative, Tipuric's importance as a runner and handler in the 6N clash with England almost highlighted that by default and Roberts' destructive running at 12 during the last Lions series owed alot to having BOD outside of him drawing defenders. I personally think that BODs play is tending toward the physical rather than the fleet footed this season and I wonder about his advancing years and this tour. If he gets injured it would be hard for a Twelvetrees to join the tour and between Roberts, Tuilagi and Davies I don't see that much creativity. One thing about Lions teams in the past (apart from 2005) they've never tried to kick their way out of trouble, even in defeat they've moved the ball well on the back foot. I wonder about these players when route 1 fails. Laurie Mains said that ahead of the 2005 lions visit that that squad was the worst Lions squad ever. I wonder if that tag doesn't apply to this squad. POC has been a Tarzan/Jane letdown for me on other Lions tours, who else is there thats a Martin Johnson, Dooley, Richard Hill, Keith Wood, Ieaun Evans, a player thats commanding in his position / returning for a second Lions tour. Possibly Jenkins and Jones but I think that they lack the dominance - I hope I'm proved wrong on all of these points.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
The 2009 series was brutal because that is the Springbok way. The Lions backs played some superb rugby that series, just as they did in 1997 and 2001. I agree with your general point, however. Lancaster is quite a conservative selector, and even if Twelvetrees is excellent in Argentina I'd be surprised to see him nail down the 12 jersey for England.
bananas
Guest
Ben S Its been a long time since the likes of JPR and JJ WIlliams, Phil Bennett Gareth Edwards, Barry John, Mervyn Davies and Gerald Davies dazzled the rugby world with honest graft,skill and running rugby. Actually footballing 12 indeed. Watching Twelvetrees I thought England had uneathed a player to rivive the days of yore.Then they shift Barritt and drop "36" to make way for Tuilangi. Fittingly they lost their way. His lions omission along with runners like Zebo and Ashton speaks volumes for their selection process and mentality. The lions mantra will be "Put your best brute forward". They did it in the 1989 second test bloodbath and won. They were still at it in South Africa 2009. The games were magnificantly brutal but SA won the series. I only hope that in this series honest graft, skill and running rugby triumphs over brute force, brickwalling and the boot. May the best rugby win.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Sexton is quite trappy apparently. I'm not massively sold on him, but he's an aggressive defender, and he likes to involve the midfield and back three far more than Farrell - but the way he does this is running across the pitch looking for inside runners or trying for a loop. Sometimes it works, but he tends to try it down the blindside which isn't always the cleverest. It hasn't helped that Ireland have been playing in such an automated way recently. For Leinster he is pretty special. If he plays with Roberts and Tuilagi it will be a huge 10-12-13. I also think that if Halfpenny is the kicker that that will improve his game as his tee kicking is hit and miss. I do like Farrell, but he's still learning his trade. He's got a long, long way to go and Lions tours aren't the place to take rookies. People forget his awful injury minute drop goal attempt against the Boks last summer. Granted he has come a long way since then, and his style of play is a good contrast to Sexton. I certainly think he could become a special Test 10, but for England I'd like to see him next to an actually footballing 12 like Billy Twelvetrees and not that bosher Brad Barritt. How Barritt used to be a 10 in SA is mindboggling... or not.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Preaching to the choir. Again I haven't been watching a lot of the NH rugby over the last month or so, but I've been watching enough to know that wilko is an odd one. He's he Berrick Barnes of NH rugby. Also not sure why here is h@te for Farrell. He seems to be far more composed than sexton. Lets be honest sexton is just as yippie as Quade.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
I can't fault the the man, but some of the pro-Wilkinson talk as a player is totally revisionist. I think Martin Johnson made a huge mistake reverting to Wilkinson during the 2011 WC, and I think it would have been an even bigger mistake had Gatland selected him for this Lions tour. Personally I also think he held the 2000-03 side back a bit too. I sincerely think that Dan Carter is far and away the better 10. Also, imagine how Stephen Larkham would have gone playing behind that England pack, and with Catt and Greenwood on his inside.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Care hasn't had an incident off the pitch for months, and his spark off the bench is far superior to anything that Phillips or Murray can bring. One incident does not make him a bad player.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Hardly rare as a hen's teeth. As an England fan I can point to numerous close wins, some wins in style, some close losses and a single big loss in recent seasons.
Worlds biggest
Guest
Kev, " brainwashed supporters " who are these people ? I don't know anyone who rates Deans. There is certainly not many on the Roar either. I agree JOC at 10 and McCabe at 12 will doom us. AAC is in great form so shouldn't be lugged with the other two. The Lions should never be under estimated, they bring a very strong squad across the park. A lot is said of their physical backs which is true, however there is plenty of skill with Sexton, BOD and Halfpenny who is electric. As others have alluded to, if we carry the favorites tag we generally under perform. There is optimism in Australian rugby but important to keep a lid on it. After the Reds won the the Super title in 2011 there was much hype that this would transfer to the Wallabies which of course ended in a lack lustre World Cup. The Lions will have the edge in Coaching, tight 5, 5/8 and possibly the back three depending who the Wallabies select. They are going to be very tough to beat.
Red Kev
Guest
Well since I've never seen any evidence of you engaging your brain it's fair to assume you can't be brain washed.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Ben I can't really fault that assessment of Wilkinson. If I may summarize, he was the right 10 at the right time for England. That 2001-2003 period. I agree he's an absolute gent. In 2008 I was in London for work and I tagged along with a mate to a corporate doo and had the pleasure of sitting at Wilkinson's table for the night. Now as much as he ruined a certain night for me in 2003 in Sydney (I only attend really important games with my father btw, think Reds 2011 ;) ), I must say he's an absolute gent. Even though he isn't much of a drinker he was happy to sit there and chat away with a few Australians who had a few too many. Class act.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Wilkinson was/is a model professional and a great team man. He displayed great loyalty to the Newcastle Falcons and in every game played like a warrior and was capable of great moments. However... people tend to forget his poor periods: in the 1999 WC (although young) he was no great shakes; during the 2001 Lions tour he was erratic (wobbly kicking and crucial intercept pass to Roff); in the 2003 WC he had a very, very poor tournament apart from the SF against France. People forget how many drop goals he actually missed in the final; the 2007 WC his kicking was appalling, and he simply sat back behind a huge pack; the 2011 WC his kicking was terrible as was his game management. For example, on a more specific level - Australian Roarers always cite Giteau's missed kick against England during that homes loss in 2010. Well Wilkinson came on and missed a dead-sitter in front of the posts too. But people never mention that. Ever. Wilkinson had a great passing game, and was capable of throwing out some wonderful passes on the gainline, but he often stood far, far too deep, persisted in involving himself in rucks he had no business being involved in, and drew his midfield down blind alleys with his predictable little foot shuffles. Granted he has suffered terribly from injuries, but the mark of a great player is how they adapt over time (Michael Jones, Jason Leonard, Tana Umaga etc) but Wilkinson has basically not changed one iota of his game since 2003. His performances from 2009-11 on the Test arena proved that he simply was out of touch with the game at that level. He is playing very well in France where big kickers are idolised, and he can stand back and play behind a huge and excellent pack. When not on the front foot with England he couldn't stand up and take control, hence the huge significance of Mike Catt to the WC side. I don't think it's any coincidence that England's best attacking games since 03 have come with Flood at 10.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Exactly: a couple of seasons ago.
soapit`
Guest
except that catt was usually on the bench for tindall
A Different Cat.
Guest
Ughhh god. "Woe is me, the Wallabies dont win in style...Deans will pick a bad team...the Wallabies are still weak" Give me a moment while I put the violin away and wipe the tears from my eyes. Australia, the poor little rich kid of international rugby.
Bob
Guest
You are being typically one eyed.... Example a ... 2003 world cup final. england one try from broken play start by him from just in side his half... Australia a NRL style kick for a try. 2003 Six Nations... England scored tries for fun and the centres were greenwood and tindal. 2003 v Australia = I can't remember the score the Australia got stuff by England at home (Melbourne I think) 30 -14 or something and England butchered 2 other great chances... Who was the fly half..Wilkinson. The boy gets bad press but only from people that aren't knowledgeable.
mattocks
Guest
Scott Higginbotham. Looking good in captaining the rebels. Has improved him i think.
TembaVJ
Guest
Ill add that Wilco is a real professional, the type of hero young kids deserve. Calling him boring is as dumb as calling a stallion a donkey.
TembaVJ
Guest
Gary Russell, you will find little catch phrases on the roar like "Wilkinson is not creative" yet this year "good to see Cooper under playing his hand" or my favorite "Dan Cater does not attack the line much but when he does..." Roarers will twist a tong to make things sound right to them. Wilkinson is one of histories finest 10's, because he didn't do a hop skip before avoid being touched does not make him boring. He did not have the privilege of playing in the worlds most exciting team like Carter and he certainly does not hide at 15 in defense. He has done some amazing things on the rugby field. I rate him just as much as I rate Dan Carter, and light years ahead of Cooper.
decs
Guest