French Open preview: Men's draw most open in years.

By Jocelyn McLennan / Roar Guru

Injuries to top ranked players and stunning form from some of the lower-ranked players have made the lead up to Paris most intriguing. Picking this year’s champion is a very difficult task.

Rafael Nadal has taken up residence on court Philipp Chartrier since 2005 and has won seven of the last eight opens. For the first time since his reign began, however, he will not enter the tournament as the clear cut favourite.

He showed solid form in his return on the South American clay, then on the hard-courts of the USA after his six month injury layoff.

It was obvious, though, that long, strenuous matches still punish his troublesome knees.

Nadal withdrew from the Miami Masters after winning at Indian Wells in March to rest his knees in readiness for his beloved spring clay-court season.

Nadal surrendered his unbeaten crown at Monte Carlo to world number one Djokovic two weeks ago.

Federer’s surprise loss to Kai Nishikori in Madrid has done not only his French Open preparation some damage but also his ranking. He could slip to number three as he will lose considerable points for not being able to defend his Madrid title.

The monkey on Roger Federer’s back was always the French Open until his win in 2009. Always slightly vulnerable on clay, Federer surprised many in the lead up to the 2012 French Open with his win in Madrid.

Nadal criticised the new blue clay as being very fast and slippery in his defeat, so perhaps we cannot use this win as a true indicator of Federer’s ability to win on clay.

The French Open has always seemed to be more of a test of Federer’s patience than his ability. However, his reduced tournament schedule of 2013 may help him arrive in Paris as fresh and eager as ever. Realistically, this is his last genuine shot at the title.

It is difficult to assess the chances of world number three Andy Murray. He rose to number two briefly on the back of his Miami win, but his form since then has been underwhelming.

Like Federer it appears to be his patience on the slow clay that has let him down in the past.

World number one Djokovic proved at Monte Carlo that he has the measure of Nadal on clay, but it is his troublesome ankle that will be his biggest threat.

Djokovic first badly twisted it during the Davis Cup match against USA in April, and again in his match this week against Dimitrov.

Two weeks of long matches on clay could take its toll in Paris, where fitness is such a must-have weapon.

While it is difficult to go past the big four, there will be some worthy dark horses to contend with lurking in the draw.

Stanislav Wawrinka, who won in Barcelona, showed that his near upset of the world number one at the Australian Open was no one-off. The Swiss number two is dangerous on any surface.

Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, who caused a sensational second round defeat of Novak Djokovich this week, is blossoming into a big time contender in all tournaments.

Blessed with a stunning single-handed backhand equal of that of Federer, Gasquet or Wawrinka, he is a big threat. A kind draw could see him go deep into the second week.

Ditto the comeback kid, German Tommy Haas. The grand veteran is moving around the court with the ease of someone 15 years his junior. Self-belief does not seem to be a worry either, after he came back from 5-2 and set points down against Tommy Robredo in Madrid.

Apart from Nadal there is a bastion of Spanish conquerors, led by world number four David Ferrer, ready to grind it out for long hours to get through matches. These are names that no players want to see next to their own in the draw.

Australia’s male chances are sparse on Parisian clay, although Marinko Matosevic has showed some stellar form on the hard-courts so far in 2013.

Bernard Tomic will be just glad to be playing tennis and making that the focus of his life in the wake of all his off-court dramas.

The French Open runs from May 21 – June 2, at the Stade Roland Garros. Paris.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2013-06-12T03:58:29+00:00

Jocelyn McLennan

Roar Guru


it means that he has lost on clay to other top ten players than any OTHER suface.

AUTHOR

2013-06-12T03:57:12+00:00

Jocelyn McLennan

Roar Guru


Joel you missed the point....does not mean that Nadal was a no chance...just meant that this year he was going into the tournament more vulenerable than any other....and IF there was a chance of an upset...THIS was the year...take note that I wrote my article on May on your comment was on the eve...when Murray had pulled out....nice to see my predictions fo Wawrinka and Haas both donig well and that Djokovic's ankle did bother him considerably in the semi loss.....but lets see how much that two weeks of punishment took out of Rafa's knees and how he plays an Wimbledon... remember how flat he was after last years win the French....

2013-05-24T08:01:41+00:00

Joel Tiller

Roar Rookie


Roland Garros is not open at all this year. Fed is miles off the pace, by his standards. Murray isn't playing. Ferrer as always will give his all and fall short to one of the top 5 or 6 who all have more firepower and raw ability. The tournament is blatantly a two horse race. Nadal the hot favourite with Djokovic breathing down his neck.

2013-05-13T09:00:35+00:00

Frankie Hughes

Guest


I think it's the greatest upset of all time, as two weeks prior to Soderling achieving the 'Holy Grail' Nadal destroyed him 6-0 6-1 in Rome No one gave Soderling a chance, he was until that match a career journeyman. Nadal had never lost at Roland Garros and it was deemed that only Federer could ever do if.

2013-05-12T23:53:54+00:00

clipper

Guest


Certainly it was one of the greatest upsets, but I don't know if it would be THE greatest. After all Soderling got to the final the next year, was an up and comer that ended up as a top 5 player. Rosol when he ousted Nadal at Wimbledon, although he played a great game, has never risen to the same heights as Soderling. But I agree that it is a very tall task to beat Nadal at RG and he is rightfully favourite this year

2013-05-12T02:14:58+00:00

ohtani's jacket

Guest


How has Federer been "slightly vulnerable" on clay? Realistically, he was the second best clay court player of his era and if not for Nadal would probably have won Roland Garros multiple times. At this stage of his career, he's vulnerable on all surfaces. He's only really a chance to win RG if he gets a lucky break. Nadal will have a trickier draw than usual, but there's no way he won't win the French Open with the success he's had since returning. His knees would have to be giving him a lot more trouble for him to lose. After all, injury was the reason he lost to Soderling in 2009.

2013-05-11T22:47:32+00:00

Frankie Hughes

Guest


Djokovic beating Nadal at Monaco in a best 3 set match has no bearing on what happens at Roland Garros Nadal's only ever lost one best of 5 set match on clay, Soderling in 2009(the greatest upset ever in the history in major history) Nadal's only ever been to 5 sets at Roland Garros, 2011 against John Isner. Beating Nadal over 5 sets on clay in impossible...nearly.

2013-05-11T22:43:28+00:00

Frankie Hughes

Guest


Nadal is the huge favourite Djokovic slightly behind The rest have no hope

2013-05-11T17:01:03+00:00

ak

Roar Guru


It surely is the most open draw in years. 2005-2012 was a period when anyone could guess the French Open Champion. And also nobody expected Nadal to lose in 2009 too. This year though Djokovic has a better chance. Still apart from him there is no one else to really test Nadal. And somewhere I have a gut feeling that Nadal will still edge out Djokovic.

2013-05-11T09:04:03+00:00

RMC

Roar Pro


Jocelyn: Good article, its nice seeing a quality analysis of tennis when there are so many articles about rugby and cricket Nadal and Djokovic will be the favourites no doubt. But it is certainly a lot more open than in previous years when Nadal and Federer were making almost with ease. It will be interesting if players such as Murray, Ferrer and Warinka can take this opportunity to make the final or even win it. For Ferrer in particular he may never get a better opportunity to win a grand slam. He's the type player who can grind his way into the semi finals without getting much attention. If gets a good draw and a bit of luck, who knows. The only thing I think holding Ferrer back is his inability to win over the top guys - he seems to lack a bit of penetration in his groundstokes.

AUTHOR

2013-05-11T02:31:37+00:00

Jocelyn McLennan

Roar Guru


I agree Justin...hard to go past those two but just dont know about Rafas knees lasting two weeks of five setters on clay...he will be hurting after this week in Madrid...I am not sure Nole will play rome to rest his ankle...whoever, gets through next week the best will be the one to beat...I like you am loving the blossoming of Dimitrov...some of that shot making against Novak this week was breathtaking...i do like the look and form of Wawrinka at the moment...he could also do damage at Wimbledon...that backhand is lethal...just ask Djokovic...the French Open alwasy throws up a miracle run by an outsider to get to at least semis...it is where the upsets of top seeds can happen at any time...didn't Becker and Edberg both lose in the first round one year?

2013-05-11T00:12:30+00:00

Justin Cormick

Roar Guru


I think it'll go down to Rafa or Nole, even with their injuries it is hard to look past these two players. But it would be amazing to see a player outside the top four win.

2013-05-10T20:59:07+00:00

Salada

Guest


Good rundown Jocelyn. The French Open is the hardest Slam to win according to the players. Even the greats found it difficult. Rosewall, Hoad, Laver, Agassi, Federer only won it once although Fed has a shot at improving his record. Borg won it six times and Rafa has won it seven times. He'll be 27 in June. If his knee holds up he could win it a few more times. What a player.

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