Where has it all gone wrong for Collingwood? After Round 14 last year they had put together a nine-game winning streak, and were a game clear on top of the ladder with 11 wins from their 13 matches.
Since that point in time, they’ve got a winning record of exactly 50 percent – ten wins and ten losses.
Partly, this has been due to a favourable fixture in the middle stages of 2012, followed by a tough run home, finals, and a searching draw to start this season.
The Pies were the dominant home and away side of 2010 and 2011, with one flag and a losing grand final to show for it.
The premiership side of 2010 had an average age of 24 and average games played of 101, the lowest in both facets since Adelaide in 1997-98.
Only three players from that flag-winning outfit are no longer on the list, none of them better than solid AFL players – Sharrod Wellingham (traded to West Coast), Chris Dawes (traded to Melbourne) and Leigh Brown (retired).
This was a group that should have been building a Geelong-style dynasty, yet they’ve gone backwards every year from 2010, and are on track to do so again.
There has been a lot of talk about the differing gameplans of Mick Malthouse and Nathan Buckley, boundary versus corridor, the press, etc, but if truth be told, this area of the game is vastly overrated in the assessment of most media commentators.
Intensity is the number one non-negotiable of all successful teams. It is the foundation upon which all else is built. Without it, any gameplan becomes irrelevant.
Sydney, with maybe one or two exceptions a year, delivers it on a consistent basis, but Collingwood under Nathan Buckley does not.
The intent and ability to apply pressure without the ball is a trademark of Ross Lyon sides. St Kilda in 2009-10 were the best I’ve ever seen at it, and Fremantle is the current benchmark, though they currently have trouble doing it for four quarters.
The Magpies under Mick Malthouse and his famous press were exceptional in this regard, but under Nathan Buckley they are not.
Gut running also has nothing to do with gameplan, and feeds off intensity. Pushing back to help defenders out, pushing wide to create an option, pushing up to create space behind for a teammate to run into, and pushing forward to apply pressure.
Doing these may not add a stat next to your name or increase your value on the open market come trade or free agency time. Most of the time it will go unrewarded.
But this sort of running is a key ingredient of a successful team. It’s also the first thing to break down when a side drops off intensity, and it was a glaring absence for the Magpies on Friday night against Sydney.
Steele Sidebottom does it week in, week out, and is a leader in this regard, but I’m not sure how many teammates are prepared to dig as deep as he does. Dane Swan was famous for it, but has been nowhere near his best this season.
The other element that sometimes gets lost in all the empty talk about gamplans is the simplest one – players.
Collingwood has always prided themselves on their depth. Malthouse was renowned for blooding young players on the big stage, and allowing them to keep their place in the team if they earned it.
He was always mindful of having up to 30 players ready to play at AFL level come finals time.
The Pies depth has been tested this year, and most of the replacements have performed well at different stages, but with inexperience comes inconsistency.
Jamie Elliot, Sam Dwyer, Paul Seedsman, Josh Thomas and Ben Sinclair have all had their moments. Elliot and Dwyer in particular have had some marquee games, but also matches where they’ve had no impact whatsoever.
On Friday night, missing from the Pies’ best 22 were arguably three of their best half dozen players – Dayne Beams, Dale Thomas and Heath Shaw.
Add to this Tyson Goldsack and Alan Toovey, two role players who provide important versatility and toughness.
Throw in one of their hardest outside runners in Ben Johnson, plus Clinton Young who will also be filling that role, and any side would be struggling to cover the losses of these experienced, hardened AFL players.
Nick Maxwell and Luke Ball have also missed significant football, although both are back now. They provide hardness, smarts and outstanding on-field leadership, another aspect that’s been missing over the course of the season.
All of this would be bad enough, but some of Collingwood’s senior players are also down on their best form, which has been a flow-on effect of the missing top end talent and lacklustre intensity.
As stated previously, Swan has struggled, and his hunger has to be questioned. He’s achieved it all in football, and has always appeared a character that doesn’t live for the game.
I love him as a bloke, and think his perspective is fantastic – the all-encompassing nature of AFL football has gotten too serious for him, and I can see him retiring before his time. I won’t begrudge him.
With the lack of depth through the midfield this year, Scott Pendlebury has found life tougher than in the previous few seasons.
In my mind he’s the second-best midfielder in the AFL, and we all know he oozes class. His third quarter against the tide on Friday night was magnificent, while most teammates had turned it up.
Prior to 2013, Pendlebury had 30 or more disposals in 22 of his previous 31 games, but this year, he’s only reached that mark twice in nine matches.
While getting the ball less, he’s also been under a lot more pressure when in possession. He’s still been the most impactful Magpie, but it’s a tough load to bear with a much lesser support cast.
Darren Jolly can still be an important player, and uses guile and experience like few before him, but in his worst moments he’s looked old and slow, unable to jump above ankle height.
Although three years older, Ben Hudson is a worthy, robust alternative, and Jolly shouldn’t think his spot is completely safe.
Quentin Lynch has lost momentum after a hot start to the year, and has inexplicably struggled playing as a pure forward since Jarrod Witts has come into the side.
Lynch has always mixed his form, but can do some fine work between the arcs as a lead-up target when on song. Witts isn’t ready for senior football yet, adding precious little from stints in the ruck, and even less up forward.
The problem the Pies have is if they don’t go in with a third tall option up forward, they become too reliant on Travis Cloke inside 50.
The best sides have quality key defenders, and a back six or seven that work well together to allow a third man up, and the Pies haven’t been able to counter this consistently.
Cloke is still the most powerful key forward in the competition, and if not the best in that role has only one or two ahead of him.
His work ethic was on display against Sydney, and he was one of the few Pies who should have walked off with his head held high.
When the Pies have their best side on the park, they have the skill and experience to remain a top four quality side and premiership contender.
When they don’t, their intensity must be at 100 percent as it was in their victory over Geelong in Round 8, or they’re exposed as being in the second or third tier.
Nathan Buckley must find a way to get the best out of whatever side he puts on the field week after week, or his men simply won’t cut it in September.
Simply put, Collingwood can still win the premiership. But they need their best side to do it, and they need to find the mental discipline to ensure their intensity is befitting the quality team they are.
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
All undone now Cam, Eddie's latest faux pas is breathtaking in its stupidity. Anyway, he's never going to go quietly once past his use by date, not like Jeff Kennett at Hawthorn who put in a succession plan whereby the Presidency is moved on seamlessly after 2 terms. McGuire is rusted on as the pies president and woe betide anyone attempting to prise him off his born to rule throne. It might be sooner than he thinks but it will be UGLY when it happens
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Kasey throws a hand grenade then heads for cover :)
nicko
Guest
Nice article Cam. Summed it up beautifully- you missed out a mention of Fasolo being out though- he definitely adds to the firepower up forward. I think my Pies have done okay all things considering. I'm not so confidant of our finals chances given the big out's we've got for most of the season: Daisy, Beams, Toovey, Young and Fasolo. Of which 2 will back back sooner than later, 2 are likely 50/50 at end of season (any point?) and 1 is written off. The young guns have done okay too, thanks to the coaching they blooded most of these players early enough. So things could be much worse. Concerns: I'm giving Russel the season to improve but he is leaving me wanting more- maybe i just have to accept he is as good as it gets.Still worthy of plenty more senior games though. Coaching: Bucks and staff are in my mind still yet to prove they can rope a crew and plan together to keep us in the top four and flag contention. I'm enthusiastic but still a little skeptical. Dwyer is going well and will stay there. Maybe a lift by next year but his contribution is all i'd want him. Wouldn't want to see hime slide though- would be saddening. Final thoughts: Malthouse should have been kept on as senior coach in 2012 to have the opportunity to have one more crack with the team he put together. For every subsequent premiership he won then he should have been given a double chance to redeem. Change the guard if for two season he couldn't get them there or lost two GF's in a row. Bucks coming in then would have been fairer. I think Ed was trying to create a fantasy scenario for Bucks never wining a flag as a player. Thats not how i'd want to win as coach- i'd want there to be fair proof that the last guy had not quite got the job done so i'd come in to tweak things. I reckon Bucks would have had more opportunity to learn and it may have meant Malthouse would stay on from 2013as director. It was pretty inconsiderate. I like Ed but it was a mistake- too good to be true. I realise there's heaps more variables than this but these seem to stand out most for me.
Jimbo
Guest
As a pies supporter my answer is I don't know. But even when we won 10 in a row last year they were againsed mostly bottom 8 sides. A lot of the games we won last year and even to an extent this year have been on 10-15 minute bursts. I'm deeply worried about my pies and as much as I love the son of collingwood, bucks coaching must come into question. I said up until Geelong game that I don't wanna judge him until he has a full strength team. But after seeing what they can do eg. Cats and what they do the next week the coaching has to come under the microscope. Good article by the way. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Nathan
Guest
Irrespective of any personal beef with Eddie McGuire he's a fantastic President and his brilliant management of the club steered them out of dangerous waters and effectively delivered them a premiership just 3 seasons ago. Not to mention the good PR he brings. He's Collingwood through and through and that's just fine - stuffy Presidents like Newbold or Nisbett from WCE don't cut it - McGuire is interesting, passionate, a little self-absorbed but a great guy in the end. Replacing him would be a backwards step. I'm a Western Bulldogs supporter who is very happy with our President Peter Gordon, but it doesn't matter whether or not they are liked, particularly by supporters of other clubs/codes. The quality of the job they do is what matters, and you can't argue on what Eddie has produced.
Michael
Guest
Celtic FC is an easier comparison to make. In 2010/11, they had the 12th highest average home attendance in Europe (its stadium seats around 60,000), according to Wikipedia. Glasgow has a metro population of about 2.8 million and Scotland has a population of about 5.2 million. In 2003, they were estimated to have a global support base of around nine million.
Rob
Guest
Hey Johnno, I think the pies made a $6 million profit last year & carlton lost $600,000,gee eddie must be doing a bad job? Who have carlton beaten this year? Mebourne ,Brisbane,Pt Adelaide, West Coast & Adelaide? Pt Adelaide beat West Coast & Adelaide. West Coast missing 8 to 10 of their best players & kicking 7.24 & Adelaide had won 1 game when they played carlton? If carlton had collingwoods draw this year i'm sure u would have zero wins!
Jimbo
Guest
Considering the population of Collingwood is 6, 467, pretty sure with a membership base of around 80,000, that is something of a world record. Pretty sure WCE with a membership of 45,000 and a waiting list of 12,000, and every member on the waiting list whose name comes up is entitled to 4 memberships, and BTW they all take the offer up, which in reality is a waiting list of 48,000, is somewhere up there as well. That is of course the ones who could be bothered paying for the priveledge to wait
Franko
Guest
Well not exactly comparable Brendan, it costs $200+ to be a member of Barcelona, and this does not get you a ticket to a match (there is a waiting list for season tickets). They also restricted membership in 2010 to relatives of current members as it was expanding too rapidly. In order to be a member, you must also be a person. In contrast to Collingwoods $42 pet membership, which despite what I thought I saw on Friday night, does not mean you can take animals to the MCG. Again, Collingwoods support in Australia is fantastic, they should be very happy. But on a world scale they are not.
Macca
Guest
Brendan - I still think the natural improvement the list had plus a better run with injury would of seen the blues in a not dissimilar position regardless of the change of coach - (possibly even a little better as they might of pinched 1 of the first three narrow losses if they weren't adapting to a new plan) but I am happy with Malthouse (could be the love the one you're with mentality). I did fear he would bring the terrible to watch boundary chipping approach he had at Collingwood but that has failed to materialise. I think the St Kilda game was the only real case of terrible selection when they went with the three ruckmen which was tried and failed under Ratten and that blunder was accentuated when Yarran & Ellard wnet down and Murphy got hobbled a little. I think they will get better as the season goes but there is real competition for spots, Cachia, Bell & Curnow are playing pretty solid football and Lucas has really stepped up this year but Carrazzo, Yarran & Betts will all come in so someone has to go out. They still have to osrt out the best Ruck/Forward combo but they do have plenty of options, Casboult has been playing good footy in the 2's, Kreuzer has been getting plenty of shots on goal just can't kick them, Hampson had 68 hit outs in the 2's last time out, Mitchell & Laidler aren't too far off and Warnock has been pretty solid as the number 1 ruck from what I have seen. Plus Rowe looked handy at times when he was playing and could be handy with Waite taking the better defender.
Swampy
Guest
johnno, Eddie is actually pretty well liked in the AFL fraternity - it is the Sydneysiders that tend to be more dismissive of him. Most fans here appreciate his passion for the AFL - we have a fair bit of a laugh at his expense when he tries his hand at things outside of footy or when the Pies are struggling but overall we know the game would be poorer if there weren't characters like Eddie involved. I honestly can't see how sacking Eddie would have any effect on the Pies on field performance. He is elected to his position by the members anyway so it's not like he can be sacked technically.
BigAl
Guest
I also am also keen admirer - basically because he gets up so early !!!!
Brendan
Guest
That is true Macca when Collingwood get beaten they lose by a lot.Are you still pining for Ratten or do you think Malthouse is taking them places? I think Malthouse is getting his team selections pretty right and can see Carlton as a tough match up in the finals if they get there.
Macca
Guest
The difference between Collingwood & the blues this year is their losing margins, Carlton have lost their 4 games by an average of less than 2 goals, the Pies losing margin is over 7 goals. It will be interesting to see how the blues go against Essendon, Hawthorn, Sydney & Collingwood in the next few weeks and how their forward line will function once they get Waite, Betts, Yarran & Garlett in the same side.
Brendan
Guest
Franko Spain has 47 million people so if Barcelona has 170/000 members that is comparable to Collingwoods 80, 000 members out of a population of 23 million.(also remember the biggest city in the country isn't an Afl stronghold).I think it is amazing that a suburban team out of one city has such support .
Brendan
Guest
Macca Collingwood form in 2010 and up until the finals in 2011 was as good as i have seen from any side in a similar time- frame.I thought at the start of the season Collingwood was a big chance for the flag but i think im wrong.Your correct some of there lesser lights are being shown up but i find it astonishing the number of players under six foot they select regularly.Dawes and Leroy Brown had there best seasons in 2010 and i don't think the magpies have found replacements for them.They might follow a similar pattern to your Blueboys where they get a roll on against the lesser sides but there not the team i thought they were.
Anthony D'Arcy
Roar Pro
If Collingwood manage to sneak into the eight with all these injuries and have some players coming back for the finals, they'll do a lot of damage.
c
Guest
why was my and redb quality posts deleted ?
Macca
Guest
Brendan - They have had some quite average players in the side for a few yers that their structures, work rate and tlanet of the others have been able to paper over now they have been exposed. O'Brien was exposed defensively last year and has been forced up to a wing, Maxwell is being exposed defensively this year (and also last year) and teams are really making sure they use his opponent, with Toovey missing (and to a lesser extent Keefe) they just can't hold sides to a score under 100. In the midfield the absence of Beams, Thomas & Wellingham has (as you pointed out) crippled the engine room and allowed oppositions to tag Pendlebury & Sidebottom in the knowledge that if they keep Swan out of the forward 50 he won't hurt you too much without the runners. And up forward again I agree, and even Cloke is up and down
Australian Rules
Guest
By "their" behaviour, I assume you mean Dayne Beams.