State of Origin 2013: Advantage Queensland

After the announcements of both Game I State of Origin teams, many are suggesting that New South Wales cannot win with the team they have picked.

On paper, it is hard to see New South Wales winning. Here is why:

FULLBACK: Jarryd Hayne vs Billy Slater

Hayne is returning to the form of 2009 that won him a Dally M medal, and catapulted him into the ‘best in the game’ category. If it wasn’t for the three ordinary seasons in between then and now, he might still be spoken about that way. Always plays well in sky blue, though doesn’t have the support around him that Slater does.

Slater is not playing as consistently as he has in previous seasons. While Melbourne has been out of sorts, Slater has still been solid at the back though he has lacked his usual penetration through the middle third of the field, but is almost guaranteed to rise to the occasion, and remains the premier fullback in the game despite Greg Inglis’ form.

ADVANTAGE: Queensland.

WINGERS: Brett Morris and Blake Ferguson vs Darius Boyd and Brent Tate

Ferguson makes his debut after an electric month and a half leading into the series. Despite normally being a centre, Ferguson has the size, penetration and strength to test his Queensland counterparts. Morris is coming back from injury, though was solid in his return. Questions remain about whether he is one hundred percent.

Boyd has just been cleared of a suspected broken leg to take his place on the Queensland flank. The experienced winger – who plays fullback for club side Newcastle – has never let Queensland down, and it can be assumed that he won’t this year, despite the injury cloud.

Brent Tate, like Ferguson, plays centre for his club and is one of the NRL’s most consistent players. After his return to the representative scene last season, Tate has once again become an automatic selection for the Maroons. Despite lacking the flair of the New South Wales wingers, it is hard to go past Boyd and Tate’s consistency, and proven records.

ADVANTAGE: Queensland.

CENTRES: Josh Morris and Michael Jennings vs Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges

Josh Morris did an incredible job defending Greg Inglis in last year’s series. Unfortunately for Morris, Inglis is bigger, stronger and fitter than last year, and is in career best form for South Sydney, despite playing fullback. Morris has not been at his best this year, but is still an automatic pick for Laurie Daley and will do his job admirably.

Jennings is in career best form at the Roosters, and his pace and penetration, and ability to create something from nothing will test the Queensland centres and wingers.

Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges continue one of the most deadly centre pairings in Origin history. With Inglis in the previously mentioned form of his life, and Hodges playing good football as well – despite being under an almost permanent injury cloud – the New South Wales backs have their work cut out for them. It is hard to see the Blues winning this battle.

ADVANTAGE: Queensland.

HALVES: Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney vs Cooper Cronk and Jonathon Thurston

Pearce has now played nine games at this level, and is yet to stamp his authority, or even impress. His defence is a plus, but he is on his last chance. He needs to perform, and control the game if New South Wales are any chance. Maloney makes his debut, and at club level is in stellar form.

He defends well, is tough and plays a straight up and down game that will test Queensland. His combination at club level with Pearce is an advantage.

Cooper Cronk is the premier halfback in the NRL and Thurston, the best five-eighth. Nothing more needs to be said.

ADVANTAGE: Queensland.

PROPS: Paul Gallen and James Tamou vs David Shillington and Matt Scott

Gallen has proven himself as an Origin hard-man. He continually turns in legendary performances in sky blue, whether is be at lock, or prop. His grinding, straight up and down style of play will complement the enforcing style of big man James Tamou. This pairing will be a handful.

Matt Scott remains one of, if not, the best prop in the game. He is proven at this level, and will lead his pack with aplomb. Shillington has been a regular at this level for a few seasons, though has rarely started.

He has performed admirably when he has played, and his aggression and size is welcomed in a small, but mobile Queensland pack, however he will need to lift his work rate. Expect him to move back to the bench when Ben Hannant is fit again.

ADVANTAGE: Draw.

BACK ROW: Luke Lewis, Greg Bird and Ryan Hoffman vs Sam Thaiday, Nate Myles and Ashley Harrison

Lewis, Bird and Hoffman form one of the strongest origin back rows in recent memory. Hoffman is in unbelievable form for Melbourne, and would have been one of Laurie Daley’s first picked. With Lewis and Bird, both proven performers at this level alongside him, expect this big, aggressive back row to dictate terms to their Queensland counterparts.

Thaiday, Myles and Harrison form a formidable back row the Maroons, however, both Myles and Harrison are defensive players, relying on their strong tackling to control games. While this will serve them well against Lewis, Bird and Hoffman, they will struggle to make inroads with ball-in-hand against a mammoth Blues starting pack.

ADVANTAGE: NEW SOUTH WALES

HOOKERS: Cameron Smith vs Robbie Farah

Farah is currently one of the best players in the NRL, on form, despite playing in a lowly Tigers outfit. He showed what type of Origin player he can be in Game III last year, and needs to repeat this performance this year. He doesn’t control the ruck the way Smith does, but is New South Wales best option by a long way.

Smith is the best hooker in the game, and is guaranteed to be named an immortal after he retires. He controls the ruck in a way no one else does, and creates opportunities for Cronk and Thurston to exploit defensive lines.

It is no coincidence that Queensland’s streak has coincided with Smith wearing number nine, expect him to dominate.

ADVANTAGE: Queensland.

BENCH: Anthony Watmough, Trent Merrin, Andrew Fifita and TBA vs Corey Parker, Ben T’eo, Chris McQueen and Matt Gillett

The New South Wales bench is in incredible form, Fifita rising to become the Sharks enforcer, and one of the game’s most fearsome front rowers. New South Wales will lose little when these three, and their TBA counterpart – rumoured to be John Sutton – enter the fray.

McQueen makes his debut while T’eo and Gillett are inexperienced at this level and Parker is continuing his return to the representative scene. A distinct lack of props on this bench is evident as normally Queensland carry two, however Thaiday, Myles and McQueen can all play front row. Inexperienced, but solid.

ADVANTAGE: NEW SOUTH WALES.

Despite New South Wales picking what is an almost complete outfit, it is hard to see them overcoming this Queensland team. While the Maroons have lost a number of their stars from previous seasons, on paper they are still a formidable line-up.

With two games in Sydney this year New South Wales at least have a home ground advantage, which will make Queensland’s job harder.

But, even so, it seems the Blues will need to do something special, almost miraculous to stop the Maroons series streak becoming eight.