I know what you’re thinking. How could someone even consider writing an article about club footy with only 96 hours (or so) until Origin?
Well you’re right. All I want to do is put your mind at ease, so there is no surprises for you come Round 19, when your side has dropped ten spots on the ladder.
But you came here to put your state coaches head on a pike, taste the blood of incompetent selectors and slay anyone who thinks Nathan Merrit didn’t deserve a spot in the NSW line up?
Calm down. See how your team is going to go over the Origin period, then pick up your pitchfork and switch back to one of David Lord’s stories and smash your keyboard to your heart’s content.
Settled? Good.
Now, over the Origin period there are six bye rounds: 12, 13, 15, 16, 18 and 19. Origin is played on the Wednesday following rounds 12, 15 and 18.
All of your team’s Origin players will be in camp for these rounds, so if your team is playing they could potentially struggle.
As each side has two byes, the ideal draw for your team is to have both of their byes on these pre-Origin weekends. It means they will only endure one game without their Origin stars, assuming the players back up the weekend after.
Taking this into account, along with the players selected and the draw, I have ranked the teams in order of the ease of their Origin campaign.
For the most part, I have assumed players will backup, with a few exceptions.
1. New Zealand Warriors. Origin players: 0. Games without Origin stars: 0. Byes: Round 15 and 18
The Warriors just get the nod for the best Origin draw.
With no-one selected for Origin I, it means they’ll have a full strength team to take on the Baby Broncos in Round 12 and even if Jacob Lillyman or Feleti Mateo get a run later in the series, their byes mean they won’t be affected.
2. Penrith Panthers. Origin players: 0. Games without Origin stars: 0. Byes: Round 12 and 15
The ‘Panfers’ can be confident coming into the Origin period. Currently placed eighth and only two points behind the fifth placed Knights, it will be a great opportunity for them to position themselves for finals footy.
At present, they have no Origin representatives, so will go through the period unscathed. If Tim Grant gets a call up through injury, they will only miss him for Round 18.
3. Canberra Raiders. Origin players: 2-3. Games without Origin stars: 1. Byes: Round 15 and 18
With just the two players definite starters for Origin and favourable byes, the Raiders won’t suffer too much disruption over Origin.
With Joel Edwards and Jarrod Croker to return before their Round 15 fixture with the Tigers minus Robbie Farah, they shouldn’t suffer too much with the loss of Blake Ferguson, David Shillington and, potentially, Josh Papalii.
4. Manly Sea Eagles – Origin players: 1-4 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 12 and 18
At present, Manly only have Anthony Watmough as a certain starter for Origin.
There’s a good chance though that Daly Cherry-Evans, Brett and Glenn Stewart will appear in Origin colours over the series.
The good news is that even if they are all playing game three and unavailable for Round 18, Manly are taking on the incredibly understrength Cowboys.
5. St George-Illawarra Dragons – Origin players: 2 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 15 and; 18
Despite having two players miss their clash against the Bulldogs in Round 12, I don’t think the Dragons will be too hindered.
For mine, the loss of Brett Morris is cancelled out by the absence of Josh Morris from the Dogs. Workhorse Trent Merrin is a big loss but the Bulldogs squad is in big trouble this week.
Merrin, typically a 60 minute player, and Moz should both back up.
6. Wests Tigers. Origin players: 1. Games without Origin stars: 1. Byes: Round 12 and 18
Just the one omission for the Tigers, but what an omission.
Captain Robbie Farah will miss the clash with the Raiders in Round 15 and playing 80 minutes for the Blues will likely see him getting reduced minutes when backing up.
Coach Mick Potter has already shown his willingness to rest Farah this year and if it was ever going to happen again, you’d expect it to happen during Origin.
Aside from this, they have a favourable draw, though it’s difficult to see them taking advantage of it.
7. Newcastle Knights – Origin players: 1-2 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 15 and 18
The Knights will only miss Darius Boyd for Round 12, however, they lost to the ladder leading, albeit under strength Rabbitohs side.
Under an injury cloud, it could be the Knights will go weeks without their Origin star. Even if Boyd plays Origin I, it would be hard to see him backing up.
8. Sydney Roosters – Origin players: 3 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 12 and 18
The Roosters are in a similar position to the Sharks, though all of their Origin players are backs. This would suggest they may have a little more petrol in the tank in terms of backing up after Origin.
The big challenge for the Roosters will be their Round 15 clash with the Bulldogs, who will be short Josh Morris and possibly Josh Reynolds. With no halves it could go either way.
9. Cronulla Sharks – Origin players: 3 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 12 and 15
The problem for the Sharks is all their Origin players are forwards.
Paul Gallen, Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis will be run ragged during Origin and I can’t see Shane Flannagan fielding an exhausted pack.
They have favourable byes and meet the Baby Broncos in Round 18, where they will definitely be without their stars.
10. Gold Coast Titans – Origin players: 3 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 13 and 18
The Titans probably have it easiest out of the teams whose stars will miss two games for the club.
Despite losing three of their back row in Greg Bird, Nate Myles and Ashley Harrison, the versatility of their side will get them through relatively comfortably.
Remember at the beginning of the season when you were asking why the Titans bought so many back rowers? This is why.
They will play a heavily depleted Cowboys and Storm without their Origin stars in Rounds 12 and 15 respectively.
11. Parramatta Eels – Origin players: 1 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 12 and 16
But hang on… the Eels only have one player selected, why so low? Well I’m glad you asked sir/madam.
That player is Jarryd Hayne. You’ve seen how bad the Eels play with him, wait ‘til you see them without him.
The Eels will be without Hayne for their home games against the Rabbits and the full-strength Panthers, a game they might otherwise have pencilled in for a win.
I hope they prove me wrong but to Parramatta, the Hayne Plane on home tarmac is one heck of a loss.
12. South Sydney Rabbitohs – Origin players: 3-4 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 13 and 18
Souths are a real concern over the Origin period. While they could probably cover Ben Te’o and Chris McQueen, losing Greg Inglis could cause them real headaches.
Earlier in the year, coach Michael Maguire stated Inglis is carrying an injury. I’m concerned he won’t back up and potentially miss five games for the Bunnies.
For mine, the fate of the Rabbitohs over Origin will hinge on whether Inglis backs up. They will play, at the very least, the Knights and the Eels without their stars.
13. Brisbane Broncos – Origin players: 4 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 15 and 19
Ransacked by Mal Meninga, the Baby Broncos will make another appearance this year.
The Broncos have four players in great form: Justin Hodges, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Matt Gillett, and Mal picked all of them. They will take on a full-strength Warriors and a weakened Sharks without these blokes.
The big problem for the Broncos is coach Anthony Griffin has a history of resting his Origin players, meaning they could be without them for four matches, rather than just two.
The Broncos play away games against the Raiders and the Warriors in these back up rounds.
14. Melbourne Storm – Origin players: 4-5 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 15 and 19
The Broncos and the Storm are in a similar boat, though the quality of the Storm’s outs is much higher.
Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Ryan Hoffman are definite Origin starters, with Justin O’Neill standing by for Darius Boyd.
The return of Ryan Hinchcliffe will ease the pain of Hoffman’s loss, but nothing will help with the loss of the big three.
With over a third of their squad out, the Storm will struggle against a strong Titans outfit in Round 15, and even a depleted Bulldogs outfit could get over the line in Round 18, once Krisnan Inu and Tony Williams have returned.
Whether their stars will back up is also a concern, with Craig Bellamy’s policy on the issue seemingly changing week to week.
15. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – Origin players: 1-3 – Games without Origin stars: 3 – Byes: Round 16 and 19
The Bulldogs have the worst draw in the competition over the Origin period. They are the only team who will be without their Origin players for a guaranteed three games.
They can take some solace in the fact that Josh Morris is the only certain starter for Origin, though Josh Reynolds will also probably get a run and an injury to T-Rex as well as a suspension to Inu will see them struggle early.
They play relatively strong Dragons and Roosters sides in Rounds 12 and 15 but should have Melbourne’s number, despite missing Origin stars, in round 18. J-Moz should back up, barring injury.
16. North Queensland Cowboys – Origin players: 4 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 15 and 19
You’ve gotta feel for the Cowboys. Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott, James Tamou and Brent Tate all selected for Origin.
Round it off with six week injuries to Matt Bowen and Gavin Cooper, plus an unfavourable draw and you’ve got a rugby league clusterf**k of epic proportions.
The Cowboys will get belted by the Titans in Round 12 and Manly in Round 19 without their stars.
With the engine room likely to get limited minutes after Origin, it’s very likely they will get spanked right throughout the Origin period.
So that’s it. Looking back through the list, you have to say that the likes of the Broncos, Cowboys and Storm, who are hit hard by Origin every year, still aren’t getting any favours when it comes to the draw.
Things might get easier for them when the Blues are up 2-0 and Mal decides to blood some new talent.
Here’s hoping.
Bearfax
Guest
Ace you are well off the mark mate. The Sharks have just entered a deal that will in a few years make them one of the wealthiest clubs in the League. Manly after many years since the SuperLeague wars are again in the black and trading quite comfortably. The League has given an assurance to the Titans that they will cover their debts if need be. Having said that I also hope Souths are trading well and this is one individual from another club who doesnt want to see Souths bite the dust and am [pleased with their present success. I also want Norths revitalised on the Central Coast. We need the traditional clubs and their history for the future of the game.
Bearfax
Guest
Fair enough Three Hats and thank you for your comments. Like I said I certainly dont want Souths to go down hill, because they do represent part of the heart of the competition. I suspect your comments about Piggins may not be correct though and this comes from another source that knows the man personally. But that's by the by. I wish your team well.
THREE HATS
Guest
First of all Russell Crowe has not put any additional funding in since, I think 2009! Shane Richardson has done a magnificent job with the finance and the organization of the front office. He has increased revenue 4 fold since arriving. Shane and Russell are responsible for the increase in Memberships and Season ticketed members. Last year the revenue from Memberships alone was $3.5M, this year about $5M It is my understanding that George has been paid in full, about 2.3M through the Sale of 6 X 2 bedroom apartments in Chalmers St at "the site of the old car park", that the Football Club owned and soled at the time of the Leagues club refurbishment. Don't get confused with the debt of the Leagues Club, they are separate entity's and wont affect the viability of the Rabbitoh's. It is a bit messy with Trivest, the construction Company responsible for the refurbishment going into Liquidation. there are some concerns for the Leagues club which is closed and not completed. I am informed it is Valued at $26M. I hope this info is helpful
ace of
Guest
There will be many clubs over the next 5 years that will fall apart finacialy. Sharks, Manly and Titans are almost gone, they owe much more money than Souths ever have. You must remember that the Rabbitohs team isnt part of the actual club finance. Other teams are directly attached to their failing clubs. Its sad that NRL supporters were happy when South Sydney were down and out and opposing fans could guarantee that their teams would give Souths a mass scoreline flogging. Now that over the past few years Souths are very well off and are a very hard team to beat, other team supporters just want to dog South Sydney.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Yes, but I am just saying that Bulldogs at 15th over this period is rubbish considering how much easier the draw is for them due to playing weakened teams.
Bearfax
Guest
Hope you're right Three Hats. Hate to see my second favourite team fall apart again. My understanding though was that they owed $8 million and in fact even owe George Piggins a few million that has never been paid back. They do have the basics in place, that being a good team, good coach, strong junior league and strong supporter base. But I have heard that Crowe is under increasing pressure from his family to withdraw from such a strong financial commitment to Souths and I'm not much of a Richardson fan. The club itself is almost in receivership with barely a decent club area now existing in the new construction. Here's hoping they make it through the next few years.
THREE HATS
Guest
It wont be another 1971, Bearfax!!! "Only the on field performance" The difference is Souths were going broke in '71 and many International players left for huge money contracts. Coote, Walters, Cleary, Morgan to Easts. Branighan, O'Neill, Honan to Manly. The 2013 version has a yearly revenue of $23.5M and increasing. In 2002 it was $8.5M ALL of our TOP players are signed up till at least 2015, and are re-signing for less money than they could get at other clubs. This Sizable debt you talk about is in fact, some LOW INTEREST loans made by Peter Holmes a Court and Russell Crowe at about $6.5M, I believe and is due to be re-payed in full in about 4 or 5 years? Not sure of the timing! Russell and Peter will be with Souths for the long haul. MANAGEMENT? Not bad for a Club with NO financial backing from a Leagues Club. Other clubs receive between $2M and $6M per year from their Leagues Clubs.
Bearfax
Guest
At this stage Souths certainly look the goods for the '13 premiership. Danger is, if they win it will it be a pyrrhic victory, because will Crowe be then sufficiently satisfied and withdraw. They have great player strength at present, good junior resources, good supporter base and a good coach. But I'm not sure they have a good management sans Crowe and I understand their debt now is quite sizable. They'll probably win this year, maybe next year, but are they approaching another 1971.
Felix
Guest
Item 1 - until you can spell Caviar you shouldn't be quoting it. Item 2 - Broncos are hardly at the losing end of the SOO this season, try being a NQLD supporter, 4 from 12 with our roster? Hopeless. #Henryhastogo
Three Hats
Guest
As a Souths man, I was upset at our Origin Draw at the beginning. However after winning 10 from 12 games and being the top performing team, then without our Stars and beating the Knights with ease and then facing Parra, Rd 15 "away game" but at ANZ I am confident with our depth. Your wrong about Inglis! Merritt is a great back-up and would be the first choice Fullback at several other clubs. Souths won both games without Origin players last year. We are way better this season and have Massive and fantastic Forwards! INJURY'S? Luke Burgess and Crocker both due back Rd 14 or 15. Champion a loss but we can cover for him also. We will smash the Titans in Rd 14 at 98% strength, only Champion out. Before Origin 2 starts after Rd 15, Souths would of already qualified for the Semis 12 wins 2 loses 1 Bye
Silvertail
Guest
Wouldn't you rather play these side at full strength ? Or you happy just kidding ya self !
Bearfax
Guest
The big problem will be if a club gets a number of short term injuries. One or two long term injuries, except for the very best players, you can cover because the side becomes settled with the new players. But a lot of short term injuries effects rhythm and injured players often take a few weeks to reach their peak again (look at Glenn Stewart). The danger for one of the top sides, is that the loss of a number of players could cause them to drop down the table making it difficult to stay ni the top four, positions that have the obvious advantage now. When their best players return, it again may not be at immediate top performance (Canterbury's stuttering recent performances as an example after absences). A team must get into a top four position to realistically have a good chance of winning the trophy. They can win it from 5-8 but it will take an herculean effort to win from there with the new structure
blackcavier&broncos
Guest
All good.. My broncos are always at the recieving end of SOO impact. I just hope they dont miss the finals this year and Raiders dont put 50-0 on that game
itsuckstobeyou
Roar Pro
When I wrote this on Wednesday night, I was really concerned about the Bulldogs game against the Dragons. With no JMoz, T-Rex, Inu and Reynolds, I was concerned they were going to lose a game they would have otherwise won comfortably. It turns out I got it wrong (just) and I can tell you I blew a few $$$ in the process. With 2 of the 4 back next week, they'll see a much easier run throughout the rest of Origin.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Not sure the Bulldogs being that low is correct. When they play games during the origin period, they get to play some big teams without their origin players. Roosters will be missing both their halves when they face each other, and the Storm will be missing the big 3. If anything they should be laughing at how the draw has favoured them, any time you get to play teams whose whole attack has to be restructured just to be in the contest, is a big bonus. Not to mention that guys like Morris not having to back up after the origin game means that they will be fresher at the end of the series as the teams start focusing on the finals. As well next week they face a Cowboys team who played this week, and will also have players backing up from Origin which will also be a bonus. Byes towards the end of season will see the Bulldogs team fresher. So overall I would have had the Bulldogs as one of the big winners from how the draw worked out over this period. We pretty much got given 3 wins.
itsuckstobeyou
Roar Pro
My bad. Storm byes 12 & 19. Sorry. I strugled to get this article done without my cavier.
blackcavier&broncos
Guest
Storm. Byes: Round 15&19 "Storm will strugle against a strong Titans outfit in round 15" It definitely suckstobeyou
Vivalasvegan
Guest
Another example of the draw making no sense to fairness again... Maybe it should be worked through based on Origin representation the previous year? Storm fixtures this year gave been hopeless...
itsuckstobeyou
Roar Pro
Having given this some more thought, I think that Penrith and New Zealand may have benefited more from having their byes on the back-up rounds. Seeing as how they aren't affected by Origin, they would have benefited more by playing teams who were depleted of their Origin stars. Regardless, they have no excuses over the Origin period and the Panthers have a real opportunity to turn the top 8 on it's head.
itsuckstobeyou
Roar Pro
Yeah, they're looking pretty good. As I'm sure you're aware, Glenn Stewart made himself unavailable due to a lack of fitness. Once he and his brother are fit I'm certain they'll get a crack and Manly will have 3-4 representatives. I'm sure "Horhay" isn't far away either. The fact is their whole first grade side could be selected and it wouldn't have an impact. The only game they have to worry about is the Cowboys and they will be pathetic over the next 2 months.