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I know what you’re thinking. How could someone even consider writing an article about club footy with only 96 hours (or so) until Origin?
Well you’re right. All I want to do is put your mind at ease, so there is no surprises for you come Round 19, when your side has dropped ten spots on the ladder.
But you came here to put your state coaches head on a pike, taste the blood of incompetent selectors and slay anyone who thinks Nathan Merrit didn’t deserve a spot in the NSW line up?
Calm down. See how your team is going to go over the Origin period, then pick up your pitchfork and switch back to one of David Lord’s stories and smash your keyboard to your heart’s content.
Settled? Good.
Now, over the Origin period there are six bye rounds: 12, 13, 15, 16, 18 and 19. Origin is played on the Wednesday following rounds 12, 15 and 18.
All of your team’s Origin players will be in camp for these rounds, so if your team is playing they could potentially struggle.
As each side has two byes, the ideal draw for your team is to have both of their byes on these pre-Origin weekends. It means they will only endure one game without their Origin stars, assuming the players back up the weekend after.
Taking this into account, along with the players selected and the draw, I have ranked the teams in order of the ease of their Origin campaign.
For the most part, I have assumed players will backup, with a few exceptions.
1. New Zealand Warriors. Origin players: 0. Games without Origin stars: 0. Byes: Round 15 and 18
The Warriors just get the nod for the best Origin draw.
With no-one selected for Origin I, it means they’ll have a full strength team to take on the Baby Broncos in Round 12 and even if Jacob Lillyman or Feleti Mateo get a run later in the series, their byes mean they won’t be affected.
2. Penrith Panthers. Origin players: 0. Games without Origin stars: 0. Byes: Round 12 and 15
The ‘Panfers’ can be confident coming into the Origin period. Currently placed eighth and only two points behind the fifth placed Knights, it will be a great opportunity for them to position themselves for finals footy.
At present, they have no Origin representatives, so will go through the period unscathed. If Tim Grant gets a call up through injury, they will only miss him for Round 18.
3. Canberra Raiders. Origin players: 2-3. Games without Origin stars: 1. Byes: Round 15 and 18
With just the two players definite starters for Origin and favourable byes, the Raiders won’t suffer too much disruption over Origin.
With Joel Edwards and Jarrod Croker to return before their Round 15 fixture with the Tigers minus Robbie Farah, they shouldn’t suffer too much with the loss of Blake Ferguson, David Shillington and, potentially, Josh Papalii.
4. Manly Sea Eagles – Origin players: 1-4 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 12 and 18
At present, Manly only have Anthony Watmough as a certain starter for Origin.
There’s a good chance though that Daly Cherry-Evans, Brett and Glenn Stewart will appear in Origin colours over the series.
The good news is that even if they are all playing game three and unavailable for Round 18, Manly are taking on the incredibly understrength Cowboys.
5. St George-Illawarra Dragons – Origin players: 2 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 15 and; 18
Despite having two players miss their clash against the Bulldogs in Round 12, I don’t think the Dragons will be too hindered.
For mine, the loss of Brett Morris is cancelled out by the absence of Josh Morris from the Dogs. Workhorse Trent Merrin is a big loss but the Bulldogs squad is in big trouble this week.
Merrin, typically a 60 minute player, and Moz should both back up.
6. Wests Tigers. Origin players: 1. Games without Origin stars: 1. Byes: Round 12 and 18
Just the one omission for the Tigers, but what an omission.
Captain Robbie Farah will miss the clash with the Raiders in Round 15 and playing 80 minutes for the Blues will likely see him getting reduced minutes when backing up.
Coach Mick Potter has already shown his willingness to rest Farah this year and if it was ever going to happen again, you’d expect it to happen during Origin.
Aside from this, they have a favourable draw, though it’s difficult to see them taking advantage of it.
7. Newcastle Knights – Origin players: 1-2 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 15 and 18
The Knights will only miss Darius Boyd for Round 12, however, they lost to the ladder leading, albeit under strength Rabbitohs side.
Under an injury cloud, it could be the Knights will go weeks without their Origin star. Even if Boyd plays Origin I, it would be hard to see him backing up.
8. Sydney Roosters – Origin players: 3 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 12 and 18
The Roosters are in a similar position to the Sharks, though all of their Origin players are backs. This would suggest they may have a little more petrol in the tank in terms of backing up after Origin.
The big challenge for the Roosters will be their Round 15 clash with the Bulldogs, who will be short Josh Morris and possibly Josh Reynolds. With no halves it could go either way.
9. Cronulla Sharks – Origin players: 3 – Games without Origin stars: 1 – Byes: Round 12 and 15
The problem for the Sharks is all their Origin players are forwards.
Paul Gallen, Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis will be run ragged during Origin and I can’t see Shane Flannagan fielding an exhausted pack.
They have favourable byes and meet the Baby Broncos in Round 18, where they will definitely be without their stars.
10. Gold Coast Titans – Origin players: 3 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 13 and 18
The Titans probably have it easiest out of the teams whose stars will miss two games for the club.
Despite losing three of their back row in Greg Bird, Nate Myles and Ashley Harrison, the versatility of their side will get them through relatively comfortably.
Remember at the beginning of the season when you were asking why the Titans bought so many back rowers? This is why.
They will play a heavily depleted Cowboys and Storm without their Origin stars in Rounds 12 and 15 respectively.
11. Parramatta Eels – Origin players: 1 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 12 and 16
But hang on… the Eels only have one player selected, why so low? Well I’m glad you asked sir/madam.
That player is Jarryd Hayne. You’ve seen how bad the Eels play with him, wait ‘til you see them without him.
The Eels will be without Hayne for their home games against the Rabbits and the full-strength Panthers, a game they might otherwise have pencilled in for a win.
I hope they prove me wrong but to Parramatta, the Hayne Plane on home tarmac is one heck of a loss.
12. South Sydney Rabbitohs – Origin players: 3-4 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 13 and 18
Souths are a real concern over the Origin period. While they could probably cover Ben Te’o and Chris McQueen, losing Greg Inglis could cause them real headaches.
Earlier in the year, coach Michael Maguire stated Inglis is carrying an injury. I’m concerned he won’t back up and potentially miss five games for the Bunnies.
For mine, the fate of the Rabbitohs over Origin will hinge on whether Inglis backs up. They will play, at the very least, the Knights and the Eels without their stars.
13. Brisbane Broncos – Origin players: 4 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 15 and 19
Ransacked by Mal Meninga, the Baby Broncos will make another appearance this year.
The Broncos have four players in great form: Justin Hodges, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Matt Gillett, and Mal picked all of them. They will take on a full-strength Warriors and a weakened Sharks without these blokes.
The big problem for the Broncos is coach Anthony Griffin has a history of resting his Origin players, meaning they could be without them for four matches, rather than just two.
The Broncos play away games against the Raiders and the Warriors in these back up rounds.
14. Melbourne Storm – Origin players: 4-5 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 15 and 19
The Broncos and the Storm are in a similar boat, though the quality of the Storm’s outs is much higher.
Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Ryan Hoffman are definite Origin starters, with Justin O’Neill standing by for Darius Boyd.
The return of Ryan Hinchcliffe will ease the pain of Hoffman’s loss, but nothing will help with the loss of the big three.
With over a third of their squad out, the Storm will struggle against a strong Titans outfit in Round 15, and even a depleted Bulldogs outfit could get over the line in Round 18, once Krisnan Inu and Tony Williams have returned.
Whether their stars will back up is also a concern, with Craig Bellamy’s policy on the issue seemingly changing week to week.
15. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – Origin players: 1-3 – Games without Origin stars: 3 – Byes: Round 16 and 19
The Bulldogs have the worst draw in the competition over the Origin period. They are the only team who will be without their Origin players for a guaranteed three games.
They can take some solace in the fact that Josh Morris is the only certain starter for Origin, though Josh Reynolds will also probably get a run and an injury to T-Rex as well as a suspension to Inu will see them struggle early.
They play relatively strong Dragons and Roosters sides in Rounds 12 and 15 but should have Melbourne’s number, despite missing Origin stars, in round 18. J-Moz should back up, barring injury.
16. North Queensland Cowboys – Origin players: 4 – Games without Origin stars: 2 – Byes: Round 15 and 19
You’ve gotta feel for the Cowboys. Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott, James Tamou and Brent Tate all selected for Origin.
Round it off with six week injuries to Matt Bowen and Gavin Cooper, plus an unfavourable draw and you’ve got a rugby league clusterf**k of epic proportions.
The Cowboys will get belted by the Titans in Round 12 and Manly in Round 19 without their stars.
With the engine room likely to get limited minutes after Origin, it’s very likely they will get spanked right throughout the Origin period.
So that’s it. Looking back through the list, you have to say that the likes of the Broncos, Cowboys and Storm, who are hit hard by Origin every year, still aren’t getting any favours when it comes to the draw.
Things might get easier for them when the Blues are up 2-0 and Mal decides to blood some new talent.
Here’s hoping.
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