State of Origin 2013 Game 1 preview: NSW or Queensland?

The opening game of the 2013 State of Origin series kicks off tomorrow night at Stadium Australia in Homebush, with the New South Wales Blues facing off against the Queensland Maroons.

The Maroons are riding an historic seven-year winning streak, with the Blues desperate to turn the tide against a rampaging and ruthless Queensland outfit that has no intention of easing up anytime soon.

Who will win game one will be dictated by the answers to four key questions:

Does NSW have enough creativity?

NSW have selected an impressive pack and a potent backline. I expect the Blues forwards to supply plenty of go-forward, while there are plenty of points in Jennings, Morris, Ferguson, Morris and Hayne.

That inevitably puts a lot of pressure on the Blues halves, because everything else is in place for NSW.

Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney are the keys for NSW. It’s that simple.

Pearce is a much-maligned selection at number 7. Going into his 10th Origin match, he’s yet to stamp his class at this level of football. His biggest issues have been in attack, where he has lacked dynamism and creativity with the ball, and his tactical kicking has also been poor.

James Maloney has been selected outside him at five-eight, and coach Laurie Daley revealed that part of his selection was because he has calming effect on Pearce.

Maloney is a cheeky little five-eight, and whilst he may lack Todd Carney’s creativity and x-factor, he nonetheless knows how to get his outside backs some quality ball, and considering the talent in the backline, that’s all he – and Pearce – should concentrate on doing.

It’s worth noting that Robbie Farah’s attacking skills from dummy-half will also be heavily utilised, and that Josh Reynolds will be sitting on the bench, itching to get into the action.

All the Blues playmakers just need to keep it simple: kick to open space, take the right option on the fifth tackle, and utilise the speed and size of their backline.

They also shouldn’t be afraid to take on the line: creativity isn’t always ‘sleight of hand’ with the ball or flashy tricks; it can simply be a case of keeping the defense guessing on what option you’re going to take.

Are the Blues a prop short?

The fact that Paul Gallen and Andrew Fifita can play in the front and back row is a fantastic asset for Laurie Daley. But did he get a bit cute in not picking another specialist frontrower?

Kurt Gidley was preferred on the bench because of his utility value and leadership skills, but was then ruled out through injury. Josh Reynolds took his place, but I can’t help but think the Blues may have been better served with Aaron Woods, Tim Grant, Willie Mason or Tim Mannah in an interchange role.

The Queensland pack is big, and though the Blues surprised them in game II last year with a quick, mobile and rangy bunch of second-rowers, the Maroons were ready in game III and used their size to bash up the smaller Blues pack.

Selecting another prop on the bench would have been insurance against the same thing happening in game I this year, but the Blues hierarchy decided on a utility role instead.

Surplus to requirements, or a masterstroke?

Are the Maroons in-form?

During Queensland’s seven-year dominance, I believe last series was the worst I’ve seen the Maroons play. In many respects, the fact they still won may make it their most impressive victory; they really had to fight for it.

Looking at the squad the Maroon’s have picked – which contained no real surprises – Greg Inglis is the only player I can nominate as being in truly brilliant form.

That, combined with last year’s series, raises the question, are Queensland in-form?

The easy answer is that, no, they are not in the best form of their respective individual careers, and one might therefore deduce that the time is ripe for a NSW victory to be snatched.

However, the complex answer, and the more prudent one, is that it doesn’t matter.

Form is often irrelevant at Origin level. Time and time again we’ve seen players picked who were not setting the world on fire at club level, whom then produce scintillating efforts for their state team.

I’m therefore inclined to take very little notice of Origin performances from 12 months ago, nor the club form of the selected Queensland players. Once they pull on that maroon jersey, they’ll be ready to rumble.

What weaknesses will Queensland target?

The most impressive aspect of the Maroon’s recent dominance is how calculating they are in identifying and then exploiting NSW weaknesses. They are simply brilliant at doing their homework, and then executing their plans.

Teams at every level of rugby league have game plans of varying degrees, but it’s the ones that can actually execute them that succeed, and that is the Maroons greatest strength.

For example, you rarely see Thurston or Cronk (and Lockyer before him) take the wrong option on the fifth tackle when inside their opponent’s 10 metre line. Almost without fail, the Maroons will either score a try or get the ball back when in a position to pressure the NSW line.

In general play, the halves and Cam Smith always kick with a purpose. You seldom see a New South Welshmen take a kick on the full, or be given the ball with an opportunity to immediately counter-attack.

Methodical. Strategic. Intelligent. Extremely talented. It’s a formidable combination.

So, what will Queensland target this year?

My suspicion, and it’s not rocket science, is that Blake Ferguson can expect some serious attention. Apart from the fact that he’s a rookie and would therefore be targeted anyway, Ferguson is also playing on the wing, when he’s predominantly been selected in the centres for the Canberra Raiders this season.

I’d expect the Maroons to run plenty of action down his side of the field early in the match in an attempt to get him involved and moving up early in the line, before then putting in kicks behind him when he least expects it. Either way, Ferguson will be tested early and often.

The other player Queensland will look to pressure is Jarryd Hayne.

Not because they think he’s a poor player, because the Maroons in fact fear him. But rather because he can occasionally be found slightly out of position at fullback.

I expect Cronk, Thurston and Smith to be wary of Hayne’s location at all times, and be extremely well prepared to catch him off-guard or out of position.

Prediction:

The Blues have picked an in-form team with plenty of versatility, attacking potency, and stingy defense. They are woefully outmatched in the halves, but Maloney and Pearce only need to play solidly – not great – for the Blues to have a chance.

Meanwhile, Queensland’s class will rise to the top at some stage, but I think it may take a game for them to get into the series – as crazy as that sounds for an accomplished, experienced and champion side.

As such, I think the Blues will steal the opening match.

New South Wales: 22
Queensland: 18