State of Origin I: where it will be won

Finally, it’s here. The build-up, the banter and the selection shocks all count for nothing come this evening, when the real action finally kicks off.

As I look over the team lists, the statistics and absorb as much of the hype as I can, I ponder what will be the difference in tonight’s game.

For all the mastery of Greg Inglis, Billy Slater, Justin Hodges and co., we all know that a great backline cannot do its job without an even greater forward back propelling it up the field.

So as cliché as it may sound, I roll out the favoured sound-bite of many a league pundit, ‘tonight’s game is going to be won in the middle’.

Although I was bemused Laurie didn’t add another prop to his side when presented with the opportunity, I can see where his reasoning lies.

Just as his predecessor did, Daley hopes to win the arm wrestle for field position through mobility and footwork.

Another big body like Tim Grant doesn’t fit into this system of a smaller, more agile forward pack.

Ryan Hoffman and Luke Lewis will start on the edges and there is no edge forward on the bench to replace them, Andrew Fifita, Trent Merrin and Anthony Watmough all predominantly playing through the middle at their respective clubs.

Greg Bird will likely shift wider to accommodate a fresh forward in the middle at some points, but Lewis and Hoffman are likely to be seeing some big minutes for the Blues.

This will allow Laurie to use his interchanges rotating his middle men, Tamou and Fifita playing the traditional hard and straight charging prop role as a supplement to the roles of Merrin, Watmough, Greg Bird and Paul Gallen as smaller forwards who will make their metres up the park through footwork, quick play-the-balls and ball movement.

If young Reynolds gets on the park at hooker, I’m sure the message will be similar: take advantage of a tiring pack and look to steal metres out of dummy-half at every opportunity.

Queensland seem to have been reading from the same operations manual as the Blues, choosing two traditional props in Matthew Scott and David Shillington, who will be joined in the middle at various points by the smaller forwards Ashley Harrison, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Nate Myles.

However, the inclusion of three predominantly edge forwards on the bench in Matt Gillett, Ben Te’o and Chris McQueen, Queensland look like they will employ a slightly different strategy through the middle.

They will be looking for big minutes out of starting back rowers Thaiday and Myles, as only Parker can play through the middle from the bench when Shillington and Scott need a spell.

Hodges is famed for his dummy-half running and I expect Queensland will be after Hodgo and his fellow outside backs to get involved often from the ruck to make the required metres and give the middle forwards a bit of a spell.

The forwards on the edge will also be asked to do some more of the grunt work than their opposite numbers, maybe a bit wide of the ruck.

Since each of their playmakers has such an incredible kicking game, seeing the Maroons kicking early for field position rather than making the forwards do the lions’ share would not be too surprising in my eyes.

In that particular battle, I give the edge to the Blues. The forwards for the Maroons will be required to do a lot more work individually than their fresher New South Wales counterparts, which will fall right in line with Laurie’s likely modus operandi of using fresh legs and footwork to get the Canetoads on the backfoot down the centre of the park.

There is one variable in all this which could tip it back in Queensland’s favour: Cameron Smith.

For all the superlatives and praise thrown Smith’s way, very little of it is tangible.

Often admirers will just spray ‘leadership’, ‘smarts’ and ‘calmness’ around rather than any specific footballing jargon.

But in comparison of hookers, many analysts and fans miss the forest for the trees and forget what the hooker’s most important job is.

It isn’t a running game, it isn’t a playmaking game, it’s service from dummy half.

And Cam Smith is the best at it. He has mastered that degree perfect flat pass from the base of the ruck which gives his forwards the absolute best chance of getting over the advantage line strongly.

Many imitate it, but none can truly emulate it.

Forward passes from trying to do it seem part and parcel of dummy halves, but Smith very rarely makes an error.

It’s part of the reason why park football props like Bryan Norrie and Jaiman Lowe look ten times better playing as a part of the Storm.

As well as some quality coaching, Cameron Smith is feeding them the best ball in the world.

So, with all due respect to Smith’s rightful no. 2, Robbie Farah, it could be Captain Cam who proves the difference in the battle for middle dominance.

And from there, it’s up to the halves and the backs to orchestrate the victory, but they cannot do it without owning the middle of the park.

It really is neck-and-neck as to who will gain the upper hand, but as a proud New South Welshmen, I’ll say we’ll dominate the Queensland pack and from that Michael Jennings, Jarryd Hayne and the rest of our attacking stars will continue on with the job.

Blues by 10.