At the start of the season many sections of the football media predicted the West Coast Eagles to win their fourth premiership, including yours truly.
My reasons were that I expected star youngsters like Jack Darling and Andrew Gaff to continue their natural improvement.
In addition, the brilliant Nic Naitanui in more ways than one would fly to the next level and that the Eagles seemed to have excellent depth in their player ranks.
However almost half way in, that tip is looking grossly inaccurate with West Coast outside the eight with five wins and battling to stay in touch with the top four, where the premiership is won.
Only twice since the top eight was implemented back in 1994 has a team outside the top four won the flag and that was Adelaide in 1997 and 1998.
They finished fifth at the end of the home and away season.
That was a mighty effort by Malcolm Blight and his men, but it was in a finals system that was flawed.
The Eagles have been hit by injuries since the season started and that much talked about depth doesn’t appear to be as good as first thought, with Naitanui in particular a huge loss.
He missed the first five games and his team has performed better on his return, but they are yet to beat a side above them.
Their victims have been four of the bottom five clubs, Brisbane, Melbourne, Bulldogs and the Giants and they had that unimpressive, but famous victory after the siren over North Melbourne when Naitanui was the hero.
But in their other matches they have been disappointing especially at home at Subiaco, where in recent years that venue has been a fortress.
However, they have lost four times there this year and actually were outplayed in all those losses.
So what has gone wrong for one of the pre season premiership favourites? Injuries as mentioned are a factor, but all teams get them.
It just depends on what stage your list is at as to how a team handles them.
If they are among your best players, all sides will suffer to a certain extent and Dean Cox, who has probably been the best ruckmen in the League for the best part of a decade was feeling the pinch at the start of the season without Naitanui.
The Eagles were losing at the centre bounces and clearances as Cox does his best work around the ground, while Naitanui with his massive leap generally dominates the ball ups and boundary throw ins.
Mark LeCras is one of the better small forwards in the league, but is still trying to get back to his best after missing all of last year with a knee injury.
Although he’s in the twilight of his career and hasn’t set the world on fire at Collingwood, West Coast seem to be missing the presence of the bullocking Veteran Quentin Lynch up forward.
And although Josh Kennedy, despite that almost comical run up when shooting for goal has kicked 34 goals, but Jack Darling is still getting used to being the second tall forward after a great start to his league career over the first two seasons as the floating third tall forward.
The midfield is tough and hard working, but seems to lack pace and outside run.
Sharrod Wellingham from Collingwood was seen as the ideal inclusion in that area, but keeps getting injured and has only played three games, while Andrew Gaff is yet to learn properly how to overcome taggers.
Their defence is ok, although they have been without one of their reliable tall defenders for a few weeks, will Schofield and haven’t really adequately replaced him, with Mitch Brown still not establishing himself.
Then there’s the issue of the Coach, John Worsfold. This is his 12th season in charge and he is out of contract at the end of 2013.
You would think there would be some lengthy discussions about his future, if they don’t finish top four and they are underdogs for that at the moment.
This is a club that has only missed the finals seven times in 26 seasons in the AFL, so they demand success and this team talent-wise should be premiership contenders, but Worsfold’s coaching at times from the outside appears to have been underwhelming.
He also hasn’t been proactive in some matches in making changes to try and turn the game and reinvigorate his side.
They would be favourites to beat another major disappointment, St Kilda this week, but then Essendon and Hawthorn in consecutive weeks will be tough on form.
If they lose both of those, the heat will certainly be on the Eagles and their favourite son.
haggis
Guest
After tonight's game against the Bombers, they are gone. I was down my local hotel tonight and a Dockers supporter ( of all people to here it from), commented that they probably will not win another game this year. starting to look like it. No speed in the midfield, and do not seem to have the drive when things get tough. Kerr, Embly, fantastic players for the club- time to go. Watters - decision making is ordinary at best. Butler - thinks too much, instead of acting. Play the youngsters and take the game on at all times. That's when we won in the past. Gutted, may not watch another game this year.
Martyn50
Roar Rookie
To slow against an average team in Richmond playing at home. So hard to see them knocking of the big guns in Melbourne and Fremantle at Subiaco
Blackwater Jack
Guest
Tend to agree with Lroy re woosha..i dont know if he's the sharpest coach going around,and his record isnt that flash really,although to his credit he had to steer a club ,and its wayward culture,through its darkest times,straight after the pinnacle of winning a cup...but something has gone terribly wrong since the end of last season..i was hoping to find the answer in Lonergans article,or in the replies above, but everything mentioned is no different for any other club,its all standard footy fare for all clubs..the cats have played many new young players and are doing well, freo has injuries to key players,and play well...essendon,richmond and even nth melbourne appear to be progressing, yet the WCE,one of the strongest clubs,is in dissaray...why? what happened in the off-season/preseason? they were expected to evolve/progress/step up from round 1..i was expecting to see a shining new model of a team,even more fine tuned than last season,and its a rabble? what does out of form mean-everyone keeps saying this-how can a team having just done a whole preseasons training be out of form? we lost lynch,swift and stevens,but gained wellingham,cripps,hutchings,morton..lynch was on the outer towards the end of last season..i think we gained more than we lost..swift and stevens werent going to save our bacon..stevens was dropped from a dogs game recently..has hardbody and not much else to date..so what can it be - the team is unsettled,no cohesion? a lack of confidence? these guys are highly paid professionals,as is their coaching panel...so the attention turns to the coach,has he lost his mojo-did he ever really have a coaching mojo ? have the players lost faith in him...i certainly dont know, but whatever it is,it is truly an enigma,and its an enigma to the coach himself it seems..,going on current form,with the games ahead,you'd have to say the seasons over...but 'IF' the injured return and settle in time,and IF we find our lost form and get all sticky with cohesion,and IF our stars in kerr,lecca,nicnat,cox,kennedy.darling (weliingham?) etc all shine together,then MAYBE we'll get to see some solid football finally,which is always a good start...as a sidenote its worth mentioning that Hawks were 5-4 going into round ten last year,then played richmond and got done by 10 goals (sound familiar?)..they then regrouped ,lost one more game,and played in the GF!? something to dream about. ((;
Brendan
Guest
Cannot see them winning flag but if they make the finals could get on a roll particularly if they beat Dockers in a home final.This is one of the most boring seasons ( I support Geelong ) so would love some team to get on a roll and beat some of the top teams.
Sir Bruce-alot of Tooting
Guest
After an already poor start to the season they had everything to play for against Richmond, Woosha stated before the game that wins against the Tigers and Saints would decide their top 4 chances. What transpired was an insipid performance which lacked any resolve. For whatever reason they are not hungry. Now they have face an even tougher ask- can they somehow get back the eye of the Tiger? Rocky did! Sadly for the Eagles that was the movies, this is real life. They have ageing stars in A Selwood, Cox, Embley, Butler & Nicoski who are all in poor form coming under large amounts of media scrutiny. The trade period has not paid dividends with the absence of Lynch costly, Wellingham, Morton and Cripps yet to make an impact. In addition Tom Swift's retirement from AFL and Koby Stevens departure has left their stocks of hard bodied midfields very slim. Injuries to A-graders Lecras, Waters, Nic Nat as well as a lot of other players Scofield, Hurn, Darling, Gaff, Shuey, Priddis looking out of form or well below their best has meant the Eagles have struggled. Now with the media blow torch being applied to Worsfold around his plans for next year and a horid second half of the season. At this point they will do very well just to make the finals.
Jax
Guest
Agree that injuries should not be an excuse but I disagree that Freo have had more injuries or to more key players, if your counting knee recos then Freo's has been more extensive. I won't name them here but WC have have had 50% of their best 22 missing big chunks of the season. WC have played 32 players this year, the most of any club and 3 ahead of Freo, those last 3 on your list test the depth more and the quality isn't there. WC just aren't switched on and that's the problem, too many players out of form and not gelling as they should. They need more pace and more decisive game day tactical coaching and on-field leadership. They can trechnically make the 8 but that would take some special and its to see it happening. What's the point if they get knocked out anyway? Too many people jumped on the WC bandwagon a year or three to early I feel. Dan you said they missed Schofiled but you forget to mention that the VC Waters has rarely been on the park.
Deep Thinker
Guest
These guys can play. They are off track for sure, but they have an A game that can match the best. The problem is, they are woefully out of form. They need to get their act together quick smart or they're going to struggle to make the 8. My feeling is they'll finish about 6th. I wouldn't want to play them 2nd week in September.
Brian
Guest
adelaide finished 4th in regular season 1997. adelaide 1998 are the only team to win flag from outside the top 4. i really rate the eagles i think they will improve but like hawthorn in 2010 st kilda 2011 and geelong 2012 a lot of talk won't amount to much in September.
Lroy
Guest
Mate.. agree.. WCE midfield is slow.. anyone who cannot see that is in denial. Priddis would struggle to beat a Galapagos tortise... Rosa isnt going to win the Stawel girt anytime soon. Embley is an old man.. McGinnity.. honest trier, but still takes him a week to run out of sight. The kid Brennan is quick, but he keeps getting picked in the back pocket. Luke Shuey is quickish.. but isnt any Cyril Rioli... the rest of them, including Wellingham are your run of the mill players. We dont have anyone who can burst away from packs the way Judd used to, or like Ablett, Jetta and a few others at other clubs can do. This has been a problem for a couple of years, the brilliance of Natanui has glossed over some of the cracks at the Eagles. The loose man across the half back line has been worked out by opposition coaches as well. Given our pedestrian midfield, Woosh should be pushing for a man on man game plan .. force a contest every time.. dont allow the opposition to have a loose man aroudn the contest.. turn the game into an arm wrestle.. we have the forwards to kick a winning score, and a backline capable of stopping hte opposition doing likewise... Is Worstfolds brother still the recruiting guy? What where the Eagles thinking with that one? Its a really really bad look. If we are brutally honest, Woosh's coaching record since 2008 is diabolical... I mean, thats 6 years of mediocre results.. the guy has had a good run.. maybe time to look for someone else.
joe blackswan
Guest
Agreed, I think they need a change in coach...woosha has been good but he needs to re-invigorate himself and so does the team.
perry cox
Roar Guru
No.
johno
Guest
top 4 is 16 wins. To do that they can only afford to lose 1 more game ..... ain't gunna happen! To get a home final in the bottom 4 they need to win 15 games - 2 losses. So, they won't get a double chance or a home final. IF they make the finals they will have to travel most likely to Melbourne to play Collingwood or Carlton or to Adelaide to play the Crows. Why are people writing articles about their flag chances? They are, as you say, GORN!
Matt F
Roar Guru
History says you need to make Top 4 and they won't do that. I don't see their best being good enough to beat the Hawks, Cats or Swans especially away from Perth, which they'll have to do. They could still make the Top 8 though they'd want to get themselves together
Mackenzie Stanley
Roar Rookie
My mistake, read a poor source of information.
Travis Noonan
Roar Rookie
As johno said you wouldn't fancy them to win 6 of those games. Can't see them winning the flag
Hawker
Guest
they're cooked
anon
Guest
The way the suns are playing not even that is a certainty. They took geelong all the way, the way the WC are playing they could run over the top. I'd say theyre Bulldogs game (they do have one of them left) and the suns maybe, but the rest they would really have to find some form
anon
Guest
Mackenzie, both Selwoods and Cox played last week so i dont know what your on about them "to return"
johno
Guest
To make the finals the Eagles I believe must win 13 matches (although last year 8th placed North Melbourne had 14 wins) So that's 8 from the final 12. They need to win 6 of these in that case; 1.Hawthorn @ MCG, 2. Collingwood @ MCG, 3. Sydney @ Patersons, 4. & 5. Essendon @ Etihad and Paterson, 6. & 7. Adelaide @ AAMI and Patersons, 8. Freo @ Patersons, 9. Geelong @ Patersons 10. Suns @ Patersons Can you pick which 6 they have a chance in? Suns they'd start favourites, but the rest .......
jess
Guest
im really sick of people using injury as an excuse for the eagles poor form. If you compare them to their cross town rivals, their injury list has a) not been as extensive and b) arguably not to as many key personel. Freo have played without Sandi for the entire season, without Pav for most, without their best small forward and leading goal kicker walters for a few games, without 2nd and 3rd string ruckman Griffin and Bradley and spent games without key midfielders Fyfe and Hill and still they find a way to win. The problem at the Eagles is they play without intensity and without a plan B. If Worsfold's plan isnt working, he doesnt try something new, he sticks to it, and that is not working. Theyre almost always second to the ball. Gaff hasnt laid a tackle in 3 out of the last 4 games. Their midfielders are too slow and their faster players arent skilled enough to entrench themselves in the best 22. Nic Nat does a lot of "highlight reel" things but the supposed superstar has gotten less than 10 touches in a few games this season. My personal opinion is that they believed the hype surrounding them at the beginning of the season and are now figuring out you have to work for it, and they just seem like they cant be bothered. You cant win a premiership only beating up on the teams sitting 13th and under, so in that respect, I cant see the Eagles making the top 8 and to say they might still be a chance at top 4 with the draw they have is severely naive. Who of the current top 4 would drop to make way for them? I couldnt see it happening