Every year at around this time we see a swathe of articles suggesting that the top eight is set, and that no team currently outside the eight can break in.
If you’re anything like me, you probably find these articles premature, and even a bit on the annoying side, especially since only twice in the 18-year history of the current 16-plus team competition has this actually proven to be true.
That being said, I am extremely confident that this year it’s true.
Ok, I can already hear the outraged yells brewing. Let me explain my reasoning.
First, let’s take a look at the current top eight sides and assess if any are a realistic chance of falling out of the eight.
Then, we’ll see if any sides not currently there have a chance of breaking in.
The Current Eight
I think we can all agree that Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney are 100 percent safe.
Hawthorn have just notched up a 10th consecutive victory, the first time they’ve achieved this feat since 1975, and are red-hot flag favourites. They’re set.
Geelong continue to amaze the football world with their longevity and self-belief and will undoubtedly be around come September.
And Sydney? Well, anyone who doubted the reigning premiers’ chances in season 2013 has been well and truly silenced after the blistering form they have shown in their last three outings.
How about Essendon? Ah yes. Though the Bombers don’t exactly have the best record in the latter half of recent seasons, a quick look at their draw reveals they aren’t going very far.
While a tough run home including the Hawks, Pies, Blues and Tigers may see them fall a few places, their next four against West Coast, Port, the Doggies and the Giants should see them get to round 18 with at least 12 wins.
It would be a far cry to fall out from there.
What about Fremantle? Despite a horror injury run, the Dockers have shown amazing maturity and mental toughness this year, typified by their last quarter fightback against the Swans in Round 8.
With many of their injured stars set to return soon, and considering they play only three of the current top eight teams in their final 11 matches, there should be no doubt they are a genuine top four contender.
Collingwood? Much has been made of the Pies’ inconsistent and scrappy performances this year.
While part of this can be attributed to injury, many have speculated that it is more likely the result of growing pains as the playing group adapts to Nathan Buckley’s coaching style.
In any event, the Pies are well-placed to make a genuine run come September, with several key players set to return, and a next five that includes Port, the struggling Crows, and both expansion clubs.
Richmond? The mood down in Tigerland at the minute is one of restrained excitement.
After 12 rounds, they can smell their first finals appearance since 2001, but are being careful not to count their chickens – they’ve been burned before.
Alas, it appears that this might just be their year, with six of their final 11 against current bottom-10 sides.
Even assuming they lose all the others, notching these six would get them to that magical number of 13 wins, which would almost certainly be enough. It would take a real capitulation to drop out from here.
Carlton? Hmm. The Blues are probably the only current top eight side with a realistic chance of missing September.
They have their work cut out for them with games against the Pies, Swans, Dockers, Tigers and Dons in their last 10.
They will probably need to beat at least one of that group to make the eight. But judging from their near misses against high flyers Essendon and Hawthorn in recent weeks, the Blues are adapting well to Mick Malthouse’s high pressure game plan, and look set to make a real run in the latter half of the year.
The Best of the rest
That’s the first reason I think the eight is set: the teams currently there won’t lose their spots.
But what is even more compelling is the teams outside the eight. Of those 10, do any have a reasonable chance of breaking in? In my opinion, the answer is no.
Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, and the Bulldogs are all sitting on three wins or fewer, and cannot make it from here.
North Melbourne, while appearing dangerous early in the season, have fallen out of the hunt in what has been a well-documented series of narrow losses. Which leaves only four: West Coast, Port, Gold Coast and the Crows.
At just five wins, and with a next five that reads: Suns, Eagles, Magpies, Cats and Dockers, Adelaide are all but done and dusted.
It would take a serious turnaround for last year’s preliminary finalists to make the eight from here, and considering their recent form, that seems highly unlikely.
Port Adelaide were the surprise packet early this season, jumping to a 0-5 record under new coach Ken Hinkley.
But after their lofty start, five straight losses brought them back down to earth, and while they now sit on a healthy six wins at the halfway point of the season, a horror next four against Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn will likely see them at 6-9 come round 17, with a run home that will still include Carlton, Freo and Geelong.
Finals appear to be out of the question.
What about West Coast? The Eagles have this year gone from flag favourites in many people’s books, to stragglers.
Though injuries hurt them early, they have since regained most of their stars and yet look as flat as ever.
Their ‘fortress’ of Paterson’s Stadium has crumbled, having lost four games there this year already.
And with seven games against current top eight sides to come, they would have to pull off a miracle to make September from here.
Which leaves just one team, and for mine the one with the best chance of cracking the eight at this stage: Gold Coast.
We all knew the time would come when the Suns ceased to be a walkover and became a genuine threat, and yet it has seemingly taken everyone by surprise.
Guided by the evergreen champion Gary Ablett, and with a host of young players who look set to become the next generation of stars, the Suns have not only managed five wins to date, but even more impressively, have been ultra-competitive in games against top sides Geelong and Hawthorn.
If the Suns can replicate this impressive form late in the season, and win the lion’s share of their last 10, which includes only three of the current top eight sides, they are an outside chance to scrape into the eight.
Boy would Andrew Demetriou love to see that!
However, a much more likely scenario will see them finish with somewhere around 10 wins, which will not be enough to make September.
And so the top eight is set in stone. And I couldn’t be more excited for the finals!
Rombo
Guest
Deep thinker is talking rubbish. Eagles are an old and slow side going nowhere. Time for a rebuild
Michael
Roar Rookie
I think you're right. They are are a fantastic side, with many star players. I just think they're too far gone this year. Same goes for North Melbourne in my opinion Also a quality side, but they've dropped too many crucial games. I reckon both of those teams, despite missing finals, will challenge in almost every one of their remaining games.
Deep Thinker
Guest
WCE are a champion side who are woefully out of form. If they find form - they will be very dangerous. I still think they are a flag contender - even from outside the top 4. I expect them to be in the 8. If they aren't, they would have to go down as one of the best teams not to make the top 8 in the history of the game. They need to click soon as they have a very tough 5 games ahead of them. But they are good enough - there's no doubt about it.
Brendon
Guest
I did the ladder predictor on afl.com.au today, it had port in 8th and Carlton in 9th, its not all over yet
Michael
Roar Rookie
Thanks. I'm relatively new here, so I didn't realise the comments were so out of the ordinary... But good to know nonetheless.
dockersfan
Guest
Article was pretty good, makes a lot of sense. I am most impressed, however, with the comments. Never seen so much sense on this site, it's quite surreal. I put that down to a well researched article that has dotted the i's and crossed the t's.
Michael
Roar Rookie
Thanks. Regarding Collingwood, see my comment below. I agree that Richmond are also inconsistent, but their last two wins have been very convincing. I think they are poised on the edge of a patch of very good form. Interestingly, Richmond have done both Carlton and Collingwood a great service in the last two rounds by beating top-8 contenders Adelaide and WCE. That alone could be enough to get those teams in. The whole situation adds even more excitement to the Richmond-Gold Coast game coming up! Wonder if Richmond can finally break through for a win at Cazaly stadium...
Michael
Roar Rookie
Interesting point you raise. I would tend to disagree though. The Pies have lost badly to 3 teams this year: Essendon, Hawthorn, and Sydney, all of whom are top 4 contenders. They also dropped a game against Freo when they fell away in the last quarter. But again, Freo is a top-tier team. Collingwood have beaten Carlton, Richmond and, in their best win for the year, Geelong. While they have been inconsistent in almost every game this year, they have shown that they have the ability to knock over quality sides. Unless their form drops off significantly, I can't see them losing to many teams below them, like North or WC (they've beaten North once this year already). Also, sitting on 8 wins, they really only need another 4 or 5, most of which should come in the next 5 rounds. Their final 5 games will probably only determine if they finish 5th or 8th... On the other hand, Carlton is yet to claim a big scalp, their best wins have been against WC and Adelaide, both of whom are struggling. Add to that the fact that the Pies are 2 games clear of Carlton and I think it's unlikely that they will fall out and Carlton stay.
Simon
Guest
Well researched article and difficult to fault any of the arguments except for one. I think that the Pies are actually the most vulnerable team in the top 8. While their next 5 are relatively easy games, their run into September will include tough return games against Sydney and Essendon, as well as a final two rounds against North and WCE who may still be fighting for a position in the 8. The Pies will have their hands full in each of those games unless they start putting 4 quarters together. Their percentage is the lowest of the top 10 and this is unlikely to change greatly unless they find a way to increase the hunger and fitness to run out games. You would hate to think that a side would miss finals because they were complacent too often and just didn't work hard enough to run out games. If you think about it, on current form they are probably only 1 quarter of football better (per game) better than North. North fades after the 1st, the Pies after half time. While Carlton faltered in their first few games under Malthouse, they are improving by the week and will undoubtedly be primed to push deep into finals under the experienced guidance of their senior coach. Richmond have been a surprise packet and should win enough games inside the 8, even if they are a bit inconsistent. Their midfield is top class and their list is really settling in together to play some footy that is great to watch. For the Pies, it is theirs if they want it. Buckley needs to really push his troops and weed out those who are not onside with his game plan or pulling their weight. And if that happens, then watch out...
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Nice article. You back up your statement with evidence. The Suns indeed are the only chance and you have to look at Richmond and Collingwood as being the potential drops. This is because they lack consistency and can be beaten by lower and upper teams by these slips. Collingwood are the major risk though, with Richmond more hungry and less pressure (I mean by the media) then Collingwood will be. The Suns draw is what keeps them in there. They basically have all of those 8 point games with those in the hunt with them. They win those and their first finals campaign is here.
Michael
Roar Rookie
I agree. I wouldn't even be surprised if that top 4 berth came even sooner. I could see them just missing finals this year (I have them and WC in 9th and 10th interchangeably), making finals next year, and pushing for top 4 in 2015.
Avatar
Roar Guru
I think the Gold Coast Suns are a real chance this year. Nobody would have believed what they were trying to achieve when they announced that they would be pushing for a flag in the next five years. Still, this is a young team and now they aren't afraid to confront anyone now. As you have pointed out, they have been competitive in matches against Geelong and Hawthorn (and Sydney to a lesser extent) and are also starting to beat Victorian teams other than Richmond (St Kilda, Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne). I think maybe the Suns have learnt their lessons from the first two years and perhaps in say three or four years time, the Suns could push for a top four spot. As the Adidas ad says, "Nothing is Impossible"!
Michael
Roar Rookie
Thanks! You're right that the top 8 is largely determined early in the year, but historically, in 12 of the last 18 seasons the final member of the eight has only been determined in round 20 or later (5 times it actually happened in round 22!) You're right that either Carlton or Richmond could theoretically drop out, which puts huge pressure on games between them and the other possible contenders (Suns, Eagles, Crows, Power). Those will be the proverbial 8-point games. Your comment about Essendon is interesting, and I admit I didn't think about it. However, my guess is that the AFL wouldn't actually dock premiership points from them, even if they are found guilty. I would think sanctions are more likely to be in the form of fines or lost draft picks.
Griffo
Guest
Pretty good assessment. Actually in reality the top 8 usually doesn't change much from about round 7 or 8. However from time to time you get a team who's form really drops away in the back half of the season. I know that was Essendon last year but I see them as a bit more experienced and mature and i think it unlikely. Carlton and Richmond both have the potential to do that though and these coming months will be a good test of their mettle. The one thing I'd keep in consideration is what happens if it's found Essendon have gained an unfair advantage through their use of banned supplements. I'm sure if this was found to be the case the AFL would have to dock points from them