How hard is your NRL team's draw?

Before the 2013 NRL season kicked off, I penned an article for The Roar that look at how hard each team’s draw was for 2013.

To do this, I used a basic formula to analyse how hard the draw was for each team. I gave each a team a score reflecting how hard they are as an opponent, using the 2012 NRL ladder as the determining factor.

With 16 teams in the NRL, I gave each team a score ranging from one to 16 (with the higher number reflecting the difficulty of the opponent).

So the 2012 Premiers the Storm were given the score of 16, the runners up the Bulldogs were 15, third-placed Souths were 14, etc.

This approach was followed all the way down to the team that got the wooden spoon (the Eels) with a score of one. I then plugged these numbers into the NRL Draw for 2013.

The results were pretty interesting, but the conversation that followed was even more interesting.

Some of you fellow Roarers put forward a series of good suggestions on how I could improve this analysis.

Taking some of the suggestions on board, I have have crunched the numbers for the remainder of the 2013 season by using a modified approach.

A special mention must be made of Roarer ‘Itsuckstobeyou’, who made the clever suggestion that rather than use a team’s position on the ladder to give them a score, a team’s NRL competition points would be a more accurate way of scoring each team.

For example, if third place and fourth place both finished on 30 competition points, both teams would be given the same score of 30.

I have taken on that suggestion and tweaked it a little, using a team’s for and against points differential as an even more accurate way of measuring the difficulty of an opponent.

So I have gone through the rest of the NRL draw in 2013 and given each team a score that reflects their current points differential (after Round 14).

For example, the current leaders of the competition (Souths) have a points differential of +127.

The team that is running dead last (Eels) have a points differential of -161.

In case you don’t have the NRL ladder handy, here are the points differential for each team (after Round 14).

Before I get on to the results, I concede this approach has some flaws:

1. A team’s point differential could be skewed by the difficulty of their draw so far in 2013. For example, a team with a high points differential may have just had a very easy draw so far this year.

2. A points differential may not accurately reflect the difficulty of a team going forward. The Doggies for instance are one of the form teams in the competition right now, but because of their bad start to the 2013 season, they have a poor points differential; and

3. This analysis excludes all kinds of other variables that are relevant to assessing the rest of the 2013 draw, such as the impact of the two remaining Origins and the injury tolls that each team have to deal with etc.

The results

Below I have placed the teams in order of where they stand on the NRL ladder at present.

Remember the lower the number, the easier a team’s draw is. So Souths and Manly, with scores of -190 and -191 respectively, have the easiest draws heading into the finals.

The Storm also have a very easy run home and I think there is a massive chance that Souths, Storm and Manly will be the top three teams at the conclusion of the regular season.

Below I have placed the teams in order of how hard their draw is. Remember, the higher the number the harder a team’s draw is.

So as you can see, the Titans clearly have hardest draw in the run home. The Titans have to play the Storm twice, Souths, Manly, Roosters and Bulldogs.

This means that the majority of the Titans remaining games this year will be against the NRL competition heavyweights – though this week they catch a break by taking on the Storm without their Origin stars.

The Doggies also have their work cut out for them, but this is where a little closer analysis is useful. The Doggies’ score does not as accurately reflect the difficulty of their draw in my opinion.

This is because they have two byes remaining and one of their ‘toughest’ clashes using my system is this weekend against an Origin-depleted Roosters outfit.

It’s bad news for Wests and Eels fans, as these two cellar-dwellers still have a lot of difficult teams to come, with Eels needing to take on Manly twice, Souths, Bulldogs and the Storm.

Wests don’t have it much better, with games against Storm, Souths, Manly, Roosters, Sharks, Warriors and Cowboys.

I think there is a distinct chance that Wests and the Eels will finish with only a few wins for the entire season. It’s a two-way battle for the spoon in my opinion.

Here is the table above in graph form.

Other aspects of the draw worth noting

• Although the Cowboys have a tricky road ahead with their upcoming draw scoring 97 on my system, they have two byes to come and seven of their remaining 10 games are at home. The Cowboys may easily storm home this year, as we all know how good they can be at home.

• The Roosters’ run home is ok, recording a score of only 15, but out of their 11 remaining games, only four of them are at home.

• The Storm also have only four of their remaining 11 games at home, with only one of their next six being played at home.