Matthew Lloyd’s statement on Footy Classified last night that Geelong are in serious trouble and unlikely to win the premiership had me asking one question, do people simply not learn?
The latest cry’s from many others than Lloyd ironically come after there second loss for the year to Brisbane, the exact same circumstances they came in 2009.
Granted the team is not as chock full of talent as 2009, but is being coached to its strengths extremely well.
Although many believe the Cats’ back six, consisting of three (or at times four) All Australians to be vulnerable.
The concerns about Geelong’s defence statistically are alarming, but in reality are far less daunting.
Geelong’s combined losing margin for this year is 11 points from two losses, with 10 wins. Enough said on that.
Yes they concede more scores in their wins than other contenders such as Hawthorn or Sydney (two contenders who they’ve beaten this year), but this has always been Geelong’s way. They simply do what needs to be done.
A few weeks ago Geelong were being credited for ‘just doing enough’ and there ability to win ‘close ones’, but are now being lamented for allowing teams to score against them too easily and not winning by enough.
And finally, surely people should realise by now that Geelong are masters of preparing for finals.
Despite last year’s Elimination Final debacle they where in extremely good form and peaking coming into finals, with Chris Scott still maintaining they could have won the flag if it wasn’t for a half of bad footy.
Geelong supporters, don’t get too worried just yet.
You’ve seen this situation many times before, Geelong ‘in danger with major issues at Round 13’ before they iron them out by finals time.
If Geelong supporters are seriously depressed after Brisbane’s stunning comeback, here’s a thought: that kind of wake-up call could be timely with clashes against Fremantle and Hawthorn in the next two weeks.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
They can. But in honesty, as the least likely of the current top 4 in my opinion.
Australian Rules
Guest
There is nothing on earth that would make Geelong more nervous, than meeting Hawthorn in a Grand Final...*especially* if the Cats beat them again in Rd 15.
Realist
Guest
Just read all that back, sorry for the novel..............
Realist
Guest
@Dean. While I agree with most of your comments, you mentioned Stokes as up and coming? which is an interesting perspective. Also, Hunt NOT listed as a veteran, no mention of the mecurial break out efforts of the star that is Stevie Motlop or last years all australian defender in Lonergan, and no mention of Caddy or McIntosh, both of which can certainly make a way into the best 22 by the finals. Further to them, Stephen Wells struck again. Blicavs has to be the biggest wild card / x-factor in the current game and a find that will go down in history as uniquely brilliant recruiting. at 6' 5" can cover the ground better than any player in the league (not by a little, his running capacity is FAR beyond anyone elses) he can contest at ground level, he is creating turnovers with his pressure and in his 1st 12 months of playing ANY football since he was 13, is playing at the elite AFL level, meaning his skills (already OK) have PLENTY of room to move. On top of that he has great pedigree, hunger to learn, desire to exceed expectation and is an astute guy that listens to his seniors and acts accordingly. (watch everyone follow suit and try out track athletes in the coming years) Since 2011, we have lost the best defender in history AND a highly regarded negating midfielder / leader in Lingy and a competition great in Ottens. Wojo and Mooney too, but they had little impact in that year. To compensate for these players we have Big Mac (if we can get him on the park) - remember he is an all australian ruckman when firing. Rivers (will be back in a matter of 2 weeks) - he was an impressive defender in a team that had no support for him. Caddy / Horlin Smith / Guthrie / Taylor Hunt - all fit and able to play negating midfield roles. The younger stars you mentioned have stacked on a heap more maturity, game time, muscle and endurance. The veterans (as you call them) still have 1-3 years in them if they stay fit. The game plan has had 2 more years of refining the Chris Scott Ethos (adding the defensive mindset to the already potent attacking game plan). There is a lot to like in the list and the whole crew. NOT TO MENTION, the VFL team won last year and are sitting a comfortable 3rd on the ladder indicating our Depth is Incredible. Being realistic: 1. There are a few things to be realistic about. Namely, Hawthorn have arguable as good depth & incredible talent, sit 1st on every ladder (AFL, VFL & the development league) They truly are a massive threat to anyones Premiership hopes. Lets hope we can meet them in the last week of September and get one back for 89 and 08. 2. We are incredibly arrogant against the lesser teams and we were finally found out this week. We were found out earlier against Collingwood, but put it aside as an anomolly and because we rate the Pies were OK losing to them. This weeks loss will shake the motivation and IF they dominate Fremantle this weekend, you can forget all the discussion of the last 3 days, because we are coming home hard and we all know how seriously the Cats take September (lets pretend last years loss to Freo didnt happen - refer to early comments about arrogance). 3. Another point is that there is no guarantee that Chappy, Big Mac, Rivers, Varcoe and Vardy will be right for September (ALL of which could stamp themselves in the best 22 when they are fit and firing.) Note: if they do make it LOOK OUT. Prediction: Hawthorn Vs Geelong Grand final 2013 and Geelong & Hawthorn 1st and 2nd for the home and away season in 2014. Geelong will be playing finals for another 5 years. LOCK IT IN THE CALENDAR. Geelong’s best team for 2013 (presuming everyone is fit and firing). Def: Rivers, Lonergan, J. Hunt Mackie, Taylor, Enright Mid: Selwood, Big Mac, Kelly Bartel, Corey, Stokes Fwd: Varcoe, Hawkins, Chapman Stevie. J, Vardy, Christensen Int: Blicavs, Motlop, T.Hunt, J. Pod Sorry to: Westy, Guthrie, Caddy, Smedts, Horlin-Smith (I rate you all and you could make your way in depending on the match-up, but it is a strong list). Who’s the sub depends on the match-up and also this is a tall line up and could be altered depending on the match up for each game. Whats your thoughts on this list? P.S: has anyone made mention that if we beat Hawthorn rd15, meet them in prelim and beat them, we may meet them in the GF for the 13th win in a row in 2013 and also keep our odd number run 07,09,11,13. I hope we win by 13pts in the GF. GO CATS....
Me too
Guest
Massive game, as it will reveal where both sides sit. Freo have been impressive, but aside from the draw with Sydney, haven't yet matched a top four contender. A win against the Cats in Geelong will stamp them as genuine and could well see them earn a top two spot. Get that and they are odds on to make the final.
Dean
Guest
If you count Joel Selwood and Harry Taylor as veterans, I suppose that would be true, but those two just turned 26 and 27 respectively. They're in their primes. Hawkins up front and they've got a strong young-ish core. The players you'd consider veterans are Stevie J, Bartel, Kelly, Corey, Pods, Enright and Chapman (who hasn't played many games this year). In any game, the cats have probably had 5 of these players in any one game. I think the cats have a great mix of these classy veterans with up and coming talent. Plenty to like about Duncan, Smedts, Christensen, Stokes etc who are all getting valuable game time in important positions, which is probably contributing to the closer score lines, as these players get the important time they need in the thick of the action. It meanst next year may well be as good as this year. Cats still have Rivers, Vardy and Varcoe slowly returning from injury this year. If all three of them are right by finals time they're potential key players across the park.
Dean
Guest
It will be a great game, the dockers are getting better at their brand and have some real talent and experience to come back in. They've also proven they can play the MCG in finals last year. I think they're a real chance. On their day, any team out of Freo, Swans, Hawks and Cats could win it.
dockersfan
Guest
We'll definitely see where Geelong are at this weekend. Freo will come over, understrength (no excuse) and hungry, so it will be interesting to see how Geelong respond. They have a lot to play for, revenge for last year, the shocking finish last week etc. Can they handle the Fremantle all ground pressure and on the flip side can they stop the Freo rebound footy and centre clearance domination.
Jsteel
Roar Pro
A dream run?? Don't call playing 3 of last years top 4 plus Essendon, North Melbourne, Carlton and RIchmond in the first 8 rounds a dream personally, plus only having the one game at Simonds up to round 13. Do have a nice run home however
johno
Guest
I think this weekends match against the Dockers will show exactly where the Cats are at. Both teams are likely to be missing a couple from their best 22 - Stevie J, Chapman, McIntosh for the Cats and Pav, Sandi, Mundy, Griffen, Bradley for Freo This will be one tough hit out
Avatar
Roar Guru
I tend to disagree. Geelong can win the premiership this year, it was just that they had to endure bad luck against an inspired and under-fire Brisbane Lions outfit on Sunday. It's normal for Geelong to have these kinds of losses, such as their losses to Essendon, West Coast and Sydney in 2011. They don't necessarily need to finish first or second to win the flag. Sydney proved that twice (finishing third in 2005 and 2012), and Brisbane did likewise in 2003. Geelong can, and will, win the flag, no matter where they finish on the ladder.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
I think they are playing without giving their opponents much respect. They just seemed to be playing at half of what people would expect them too, they really struggled to be mentally ready for GWS and required a big last quarter before winning by 59 points. Their lack of mental prep showed against Brisbane, you just simply don't let sides like that comeback from 52 points down to win, especially when they are 15th on the ladder you just don't.
Ash of Geelong
Guest
For some reason people think its fate the 07,09,11 & now 13. Cats still rely on their veterans more than ever and that is evident when the first four best are named they are usually veterans and they don't have as many as they did in their last premiership.
Chairman Kaga
Guest
Was a little surprised people were talking up Geelong to win so much. They have had a dream run this year so far. They beat Hawthorn when they were underdone, Carlton when they were still finding their way and the umpiring they seem to get is laughable. They will make the finals due to all those dodgy home games at Kardinia but they will fall away before the GF. It'll be a Hawthorn v ??? GF. Possibly Fremantle. So you could almost book your golfing holiday to Barnbougle that weekend because it will be a shocking match up for the big game. Borefest.