Like some revenge-fuelled fisherman in one of those godawful ‘I know how you batted last summer’ movies, the horror of the Ashes are bearing down on us, threatening to gut our hopes of victory with the bloodied hook of 2AM batting collapses.
Or some other, less strained metaphor not built on a 90s teen horror movie franchise best left forgotten.
But with Darren Lehmann now inserted as the BUPA healthier version of former coach Mickey Arthur, there’s plenty of fresh fodder for speculation in the last fortnight before the series actually begins.
Will Chairman of Selectors John Inverarity be replaced by a flea-ridden sock puppet? Will incumbent Test captain Shane Watson unveil some Machiavellian scheme to retain the team leadership he worked so hard to stumble ass-backwards into on the tour of India? Who, exactly, will be next to punch Joe Root upside the head?
And the big one: what are Australia’s chances of winning the Ashes (or ‘returning the urn’ as some rhyme-happy Twitter hashtags would have it), really?
I can’t answer any of the first three, but I can take a quantifiable stab at the last.
First, let’s note that of the 94 non-drawn Test series between the top eight Test nations over the past decade or so, only 31 have been won by visiting teams. That’s a little less than a one in three chance.
Next, let’s add a little bit more smartitude to this. The ICC publishes Test ratings, which attempt to quantify the relative strengths of the Test nations. With a little bit of digging I was able to find the ratings for all teams for all those series over the past decade or so. How useful are those in predicting the winners of Test series?
Pretty darn useful as it turns out.
Like Duckworth Lewis targets or the running between wickets of Phil Hughes, it’s probably simplest to skip the tedious details of the mathematical calculations and cut straight to the results.
(Although, if you must know, I derived the proportion of the visiting team’s rating to the sum of the two teams’ ratings, converted it to log-odds, then performed a linear regression against a similarly log-oddsified proportion of Tests won by the visiting team [using a Laplacian rule of succession for whitewashes, obviously], with the regression constant factor retained to adjust for home ground advantage. Because what else would one do?)
The result of this quick and dirty analysis? Turns out the team ratings allow you to predict the likely number of wins by the visiting team and get within 0.5 of the correct number a little over 76% of the time.
How does this translate for the Aussies in the upcoming Ashes?
The most likely result by this formula is that Australia will ‘win’ two Tests out of the five. Since draws count as half a point, those two ‘wins’ could be one actual win and two draws. Or four draws. Or, as strange as it may seem, two actual wins.
Whichever way it shakes out, England win the series by a one-Test margin and Australia fail to regain the Ashes (‘spurning the urn’).
What about a drawn series? To draw the series, Australia need to get 2.5 wins out of the five Tests. According to the formula, there’s roughly a 13% chance of that happening. But even if it does, the Poms keep the Ashes, at least until the Australian summer (‘adjourning the urn’).
And what are the chances of Australia winning the series and actually returning the urn? About 6%. Which, by any standard, isn’t great.
But, on the positive side, we’ve smashed the Poms in the pre-series fiasco-a-thon (‘upturning the urn’). And that’s got to count for something, right?
Macca
Guest
Exactly Andy - Ponting & Hussey have retired, Khawaja hasn't played since, Warner is 50/50 to play the first test, & Starc is no sure thing with Bird & Faulkner pushing for his spot. I would say at least 4 of 11 possible 5 will be different - that is significant
James
Guest
whats the weakness at the top of the order? im disappointed compton only made 81 but i wouldnt call that weakness
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
Scant Resemblance Macca AUS team vs NZ in Hobart was Warner Hughes Khawaja Ponting Clarke Hussey Haddin Siddle Pattinson Starc Lyon I think the team for the first ashes test will contain at least eight of these players.
Macca
Guest
Disco - The New Zealand test are Englands most recent form, they were very lucky to escape New Zealand without losing that series and it took an amazing spell form Broad for England to win the last test in England against the Kiwi's. Yes Australia lost to New Zealand in Hobart over 18 months ago with a side that will bear scant resemblence to the side that plays in the Ashes plus the Kiwi's had Vettori playing in the Australian loss. On the Indian - yes England won there and Australia lost but Australia played pretty good cricket for extneded periods in that series, just had some terrible sessions. And playing in England is very different to playing in India - the form doesn't transfer very well. As for Englands form in their last 7 series dating back to 2011/12 England have lost 3-0 in Pakistan, Drawn 1-1 with Sri Lanka, beat teh West Indies 2-0 (a third test drawn) not very convincingly from memory, lost 2-0 to South Africa, beat india 2-1 (with a fourth drawn), had a lucky draw against NZ 0-0 and just managed a 2-0 victory against NZ - not exaclty dominating like they were in 2009-11
Disco
Roar Guru
Straws. Clutching. At. There were actually three drawn Tests played away in NZ, one of which England was in the ascendancy. The facts are England didn't lose a Test to NZ like, say, Australia did in Hobart. And let's ignore the relative form of the sides showcased in India shall we?
Macca
Guest
Australia do have their troubles but England is hardly in sprakling form - lucky not to get done by New Zealand in both tests away and were less than convincing against them at home.
Dan Liebke
Expert
Hopefully nobody will remind him.
Disco
Roar Guru
Quite.
Disco
Roar Guru
So too might Pietersen's comeback knock of 177* (188)
Brett McKay
Expert
"Will incumbent Test captain Shane Watson unveil some Machiavellian scheme to retain the team leadership he worked so hard to stumble ass-backwards into on the tour of India?" Ho, ho, ho. Like he's smart enough to even remember he's the incumbent Test Captain.. :lol:
Dan Liebke
Expert
You're right. The details of those lost series in England have clearly blurred together in my mind. The point is, we lost both of them 2-1, which I'd gladly accept this time.
JGK
Roar Guru
I think that was 2009. In 2005 we need to win the last test to draw the series and retain the Ashes. BTW - JMW is smoking dope.
Dan Liebke
Expert
1-1 going into the final Test, with England winning it? Very 2005 of you. This time around, though, I'd gladly take it.
JMW
Guest
An acceptable result to me would be England 2 narrow wins, Australia 1 well earned win and 2 well fought, dramatic draws. This would suggest to me that there was improvement and an opportunity of reversing the scoreboard ( accepting the home team rule) when we return to our home environment. I think I'll punt on the following sequence...England, Draw, Australia, Draw, England. What a series that would be!
Jayden
Guest
I'd drop your mentals to perhaps 7, England is a confidence side. The Champions Trophy might impact you, just a little bit.
Dan Liebke
Expert
You are wise to be cautious.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
I am Irish that has resided on your shores since 1971 without ever getting citizenship. So I am always fearful of deportation. And talk down anything to do with Aussie sport is tantamount to treason in this fine land
Dan Liebke
Expert
Tim, I'm surprised you didn't give us a negative Mental score. We are a basket case. Hopefully Boof can sort things out on that front, at least.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
Sadly no chancem Lehmann might make a difference in the long run ( if he is allowed too )- key point that. But in the short term he is still dictated too by others decisions ( ie squad selected ) and indecisions ( ie retaining warner after his brain fades and watson after india ) Plus if you ran the rule over the Teams departments this would be my judgement Batting- 3/10 ( without Clarke 1/10 ) Bowling 7/10 ( potentially higher, but susceptible to injuries and no class spinner ) Mental 0/10 Depth 3/10 ( has many pace options, but no batting options or spin options ) Know How 2/10 ( The bowling has some real Test prospects, but the batting outside of Clarke has T20/ODI mindsets throughout- a true accident waiting to happen ) Compare this to the same rule run over England Batting 7/10 ( weakness at the top that can be fixed by moving Root there ) Bowling 7.5/ 10 ( probably an under stated rating for them in their home confines ) Mental 9/10 ( Great belief as individuals and in each other- very tight group that has been there and done that and is so hard to beat ) Depth 7/10 ( very strong in all departments ) Know how 8/10 ( most, if not all have Test mindsets and know what is required to succeed in Test Cricket ) i can see it getting very nasty for the Aussies with even a whitewash on the cards if the weather is true