I asked a mate for his opinion after the series-levelling Wallabies victory on Saturday.
“1-1 seems fair,” he said.
“The Wallabies did not deserve to win this last game with all their handling errors and they should have buried the Lions in the first game with the number of shots on goal they were awarded”.
A fairly succinct summary of the series so far.
I have found that Robbie Dean’s rushed gameplan is hard to define and cannot be ascribed to a particular known strategy (like the kick-and-chase or territory or counter-attacking gameplan).
I suppose “play-what’s-front-of-you” would be the plan, but by it’s very nature, it lacks consistent characteristics.
As such, in evaluating Dean’s performance as a coach, one should look to the personnel selected and their effectiveness in a given game.
What has worked:
1. Ben Mowen. The Brumbies skipper had a barnstorming debut in the first Test and picked up where he left off in the second test. The incumbent blindside seems to have mastered the art of giving away penalties in the right zones of the field.
Smothering the ball 55 metres out after fulltime was a calculated gamble and arguably one that secured the win for the Wallabies. A kick on the halfway would be on the very edge of Halfpenny’s range (without factoring in the angle. As shown on Saturday, Halfpenny’s a 50 metre kicker) and it’s arguable that the Lions would have to take the shot at goal as there was no guarantee that they would hold onto the ball to work it into a more favourable position.
There were a few other occassions where Mowen went in to effect a turnover that resulted in a penalty against, without the Lions getting points. Additionally, Mowen’s workrate in the tight-loose was second to none. And that’s not even mentioning his sterling work at lineout time.
2. Christian Lealiifano. There was no Lealiifano in the first test, result: Wallabies loss. Lealiifano played the entire second Test, result: Wallabies win.
Excellent distribution and flawless kicking should result in Lealiifano locking down the Gold 12 jersey for the forseeable future. Lealiifano’s effectiveness was somewhat hampered by a flyhalf who stands too deep and who takes on the defence a little too often.
3. Israel Folau. Most profitable roll of the dice for the ARU, NSW Waratahs, and Robbie Deans in recent times. The Wallabies should be looking to bring him into the game more often. Most telling, a cross-kick in Folau’s direction was only attempted once that I could recall and it was by Beale. The kick was a little too shallow for it to result in points, but possession was retained. The Wallabies should be working on a first-receiver-Folau combination this week.
4. The Wallaby pack. I’ve never given the Wallaby pack much ‘street’ credibility. In my mind, their job is to strive for parity in the set-piece to give the flashy backs as decent a crack with good ball as possible. This series has been an eye-opener.
The targeting of Mako Vunipola in the scrums and the stability in the line-outs are both merits for the Wallabies low numbered players. The only problem for them was the Lions rolling maul off lineouts.
However, in typical Aussie style, a work-around was found by competing the throw-in strongly to prevent the Lions forwards setting their maul.
What warrants a re-look:
1. James O’Connor at 10. James O’Connor is a definite talent and a player that should be in the Wallabies XV. However, he is not a 10 after the Australian tradition of 10s. He stands too deep. His distribution is poor (barring the try-scoring pass this weekend). He turns over way too much ball at 10.
That said though, I believe O’Connor would make a valuable contribution at 11 where he can run at defences to his heart content without a thought for putting another player into space. O’Connor has a decent boot (though I don’t expect him to be kicking much ball) and is strong in the tackle-bust. Additionally, Tomane did not have a blinder of a game (probably due to the ball being passed down the line very seldomly).
2. Michael Hooper. Again, a great talent. But so far, very little impact on the series (barring his ability to cover 12 in a pinch). Consider the impact of Heinrich Brussow on the 2009 Lions tour. Now try to remember if you’ve seen Hooper effect a critical turnover.
Contrast with Liam Gill securing loose ball seconds from fulltime in the second test off a Lions throw-in. I think it’s time for Deans to rotate Gill and Hooper or preferably swap Hooper for George Smith.
Throughout the first two Tests of this series, I’ve felt that the Lions are there for the taking.
They play a very structured game that lacks magic – except for George North’s efforts in the first Test. That was pretty magical.
This lions team lacks a Shane Williams. Their midfield threat is well-contained by Lealiifano and Ashley-Cooper (who has put in consistently high quality performances this series) and their setpiece is not as dominant as expected.
Where they do have the wood on the Wallabies is at the breakdown (which is easily remedied with the introduction of George Smith) and the kicking power of their 10 and 15 (which would be more than countered by Jesse Mogg who could restore some parity in the kicking duels and bring an extra running game to boot).
Where the Wallabies will beat the Lions is on the counter-attack, in broken play and by individual brilliance. It’s how the All Blacks beat the Northern Hemisphere teams, and it’s how Australia has beaten Wales in recent history.
With Deans, this means getting the selections right for the deciding test. I would play the same 1-8 as the second test with George Smith in for Hooper. Backline as follows: Genia, Beale, O’Connor, Lealiifano, Ashley-Cooper, Folau, Mogg.
At the start of Series, I predicted a 2-1 victory to the Lions with all the games being close and no dead-rubber games.
At this stage, I think my prediction will hold, unless Deans gets the selections for the team for the decider in Sydney right.
stanley grella
Guest
mowen got tackled 3 times by ben youngs, a halfback. drop him, drop him now.
stanley grella
Guest
watching the old replays on fox I was amazed by how much space that kefu and co had even just a decade ago, modern defensive lines are moving up so quick that the one out hit up by the 'bopper' no#8 is a pretty overrated thing these days. the All Blacks are the master at just getting the ball to reed on an angle or with an extra little pass that puts the defence on its heels. its something Australia has never done well in the current era. Palu, ulike kefu & finno has played the majority of his international football behind a beaten pack. he has been an absolute rock and his involvement is criminally underrated in my opinion. watching Higgers run in a bit wider channel and make a ton of ground is an absolute joy but it isn't the same thing. Palu is a working man, doing the tight stuff and not getting noticed. it will be a sad day when he moves on.
stanley grella
Guest
again, if he isn't fit, why is he involved in more work than mowen? I love mowen, always have, but you cant put the boot into palu about being unfit at all. his work in tight allows the mowens, hoopers & gills of this world to make breaks out wider.
stanley grella
Guest
the lions have had the upper hand in the forwards in the first half of both tests but havnt lasted the whole game. comparing the guys starting like palu and hooper who are doing a ton of work to the guy coming on with 20-30 to go against a defence starting to tire is always risky. there is no garuntee that gill could do the defensive work hooper is getting through and there is absolute clarity that he would never make the metres hooper does. hooper is light years ahead in that regard. all bringing gill on early would accomplish is an increase in turnover ability, something uneeded when the opposition keep kicking the ball to you.
Pick & Go..!!
Guest
Ted, So because Palu got tackled by a winger off the kick off he should be dropped?? In that same game I saw Horwill get cleaned out at the breakdown by a winger should he be dropped?? If Palu made errors like knocked the ball on in contact.Etc Than you could argue him being dropped. But to say he should be dropped because he got tackled is laughable & a joke.
Ted
Guest
Palu took one ball off kick off, two steps and was tackled sideways by Lions 14.....hardly the battering ram that is needed..... 6. Smith 7. Hooper 8. Mowen
stanley Grella
Guest
gill has played half an hour both games and has also failed to secure a turnover.
mania
Guest
cruise missile does it with style and a lot more accuracy
Pick & Go..!!
Guest
While I agree in part of your assessment of Hooper at the breakdown, & that Smith would bring a more effective presence on the ball in defense. But the problem was in our attack, our forwards weren't accurate enough in cleanouts. So we weren't able to string phases together & that was not the fault of Hoopers alone. But our whole pack in general, mostly the tight five. I also don't believe Kimlin would provide more physicality & a better lineout option to the pack, then what Palu already brings. I also don't understand the negativity Palu gets?? Palu's physicality & workrate is underrated. In the 1st test It was a Palu cleanout on Paul O'Connell in the 76th min that ended the talismanic Irish locks tour. In the 2nd test his 61 mins he had 12 hit ups (tied with Moore for most in the game) and hit 11 rucks/mauls (second most in the game).
Anthony Hird
Roar Guru
We did look good in the 7 mins of attacking that produced a try. Hopefully JOC gets some confidence and runs at the line. Wouldn't mind seeing CL shifted to 10 and JOC to 12 for a plan B. CL seems to be in the mould of a future Dan Carter (massive complement I know) Thoughts?
Anthony Hird
Roar Guru
Hooper has been fantastic. Hs running and offloading game is something that no other 7 possesses. I quite like the two opensides and Mowen at 8 playing at the same time. Palu just doesn't have that impact he used too. Still great I should add.
Justin3
Guest
Rubbish, I'd back the rebels back 5 over any Aussie back 5 next year, without hesitation.
Justin3
Guest
They don't actually it just happens to be that much of the time if you have gained ground in the middle then there is space wide. The Brumbies and reds/tahs in particular showed that there is enormous space wide and in behind early. You just need the right skillset to find the space and that isn't in the wallaby squad or plan at this point.
ACT
Guest
Toomua@10 is a talent for the future perhaps the Spring tour & into the WC2015, MT has already toured as a Wallaby in 2010 albeit got injured. Lealiifano is the long term 12 I think most would agree. My bet for 13 is their teammate Kuridrani. Brumbies are comparing TK talents to that of Mortlock.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Hooper does get through a mountain of work but his speciality is not the breakdown, an area we got exposed badly on Saturday. In any case I would be bringing in Smith regardless. Tough on Hooper yes but he can still play a big part off the bench. I think Gatland will pick SOB at 7 now Warbarton is out. SOB is a tank and will be hard to combat the breakdown. This is why I would bring in Kimlin for an all Brumbies backrow, more physical presence in the pack and another Lineout jumper in the event Horwill is suspended. Of course Deans will not entertain such radical change ! My second row replacement would be Timani if fit. He brings grunt and bulk to the scrum. Douglas, Mowen and Kimlin Lineout jumpers.
Crash Ball2
Guest
Much has been made of the Wallabies less than inspiring ball-in-hand attack over the last couple of days. Understandably so - though others have covered this topic sufficiently. That said, it wasn't as if the Lions borrowed the Randwick early to mid-80's playbook for the Second Test either. While ineffective, we weren't outgunned. For mine, the Wallabies were more noticeably outplayed at the breakdowns in the Second Test. The Wallabies lacked timing, accuracy and weight at the clean out, as well as effective competition at the offensive tackle contest. This isn't a comment simply about pilfering pill but rather protecting possession and making it as difficult as possible for your opposition to do the same: the invisible work often unrecognised or disregarded. Sometimes a seven can't afford the luxury of being second man in and simply needs to be able to apply an educated hard shoulder to dominate a collision. Snaffling opposition ball will get you on the highlight reel, but blasting a would-be jackal out of the impact zone, allowing your halfback to release quick ball is every bit as important. In these instances: size counts. Instinct and timing, counts. The willingness to stick your head into all the dark places any sensible human avoids, counts. A great openside makes those around him look good as well. Time for George Smith.
bennalong
Guest
The big question about the breakdown and the scrum is the ref I found Joubert's reffing puzzling. Too many scrum penalties which caused too many interrutions which suited the Lions. This is unusual as he likes to let the game flow Then at the breakdown he seemed to favour the Lions and gave the tackled Wallaby no time to place the ball, and blew it up when a ruck was formed by the arrival of a gold jersey almost immediately I would really liker it if the ref was required to make public his rules for the match since they clearly vary. So if the benefit of the doubtt at the breakdown goes to the pilferer, Hoopy is benched But if not he should stay......top run metres, top tackles. The blokes a machine and shouldn't lose his spot easily If Horwill goes, it's a conspiracy so the last game will require us to smash them.
jutsie
Guest
cully was reporting early last week that deans was considering the brumbies backrow to start. wonder if that will be the case this week.
Dally M
Guest
The work he did in the first test was pretty much all in the first 15 minutes of each half, he dropped off after that. It's not anti-NSW, I'm a Tahs supporter, but he wasn't fit & he always takes a few games to work up to that fitness.
The Irony
Guest
@ Fox Molder "These are quotes are from the very same person who said Quade Cooper would not be in the team for doing exactly those things he just said he wanted done. Is the Aust. Rugby media asleep at the wheel?! Why has no-one called Deans to account on this? He says Quade is too risky and can’t make the squad….then says it is ok the Wallabies took risks and made errors as that is part of the plan". GOLD!