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I asked a mate for his opinion after the series-levelling Wallabies victory on Saturday.
“1-1 seems fair,” he said.
“The Wallabies did not deserve to win this last game with all their handling errors and they should have buried the Lions in the first game with the number of shots on goal they were awarded”.
A fairly succinct summary of the series so far.
I have found that Robbie Dean’s rushed gameplan is hard to define and cannot be ascribed to a particular known strategy (like the kick-and-chase or territory or counter-attacking gameplan).
I suppose “play-what’s-front-of-you” would be the plan, but by it’s very nature, it lacks consistent characteristics.
As such, in evaluating Dean’s performance as a coach, one should look to the personnel selected and their effectiveness in a given game.
What has worked:
1. Ben Mowen. The Brumbies skipper had a barnstorming debut in the first Test and picked up where he left off in the second test. The incumbent blindside seems to have mastered the art of giving away penalties in the right zones of the field.
Smothering the ball 55 metres out after fulltime was a calculated gamble and arguably one that secured the win for the Wallabies. A kick on the halfway would be on the very edge of Halfpenny’s range (without factoring in the angle. As shown on Saturday, Halfpenny’s a 50 metre kicker) and it’s arguable that the Lions would have to take the shot at goal as there was no guarantee that they would hold onto the ball to work it into a more favourable position.
There were a few other occassions where Mowen went in to effect a turnover that resulted in a penalty against, without the Lions getting points. Additionally, Mowen’s workrate in the tight-loose was second to none. And that’s not even mentioning his sterling work at lineout time.
2. Christian Lealiifano. There was no Lealiifano in the first test, result: Wallabies loss. Lealiifano played the entire second Test, result: Wallabies win.
Excellent distribution and flawless kicking should result in Lealiifano locking down the Gold 12 jersey for the forseeable future. Lealiifano’s effectiveness was somewhat hampered by a flyhalf who stands too deep and who takes on the defence a little too often.
3. Israel Folau. Most profitable roll of the dice for the ARU, NSW Waratahs, and Robbie Deans in recent times. The Wallabies should be looking to bring him into the game more often. Most telling, a cross-kick in Folau’s direction was only attempted once that I could recall and it was by Beale. The kick was a little too shallow for it to result in points, but possession was retained. The Wallabies should be working on a first-receiver-Folau combination this week.
4. The Wallaby pack. I’ve never given the Wallaby pack much ‘street’ credibility. In my mind, their job is to strive for parity in the set-piece to give the flashy backs as decent a crack with good ball as possible. This series has been an eye-opener.
The targeting of Mako Vunipola in the scrums and the stability in the line-outs are both merits for the Wallabies low numbered players. The only problem for them was the Lions rolling maul off lineouts.
However, in typical Aussie style, a work-around was found by competing the throw-in strongly to prevent the Lions forwards setting their maul.
What warrants a re-look:
1. James O’Connor at 10. James O’Connor is a definite talent and a player that should be in the Wallabies XV. However, he is not a 10 after the Australian tradition of 10s. He stands too deep. His distribution is poor (barring the try-scoring pass this weekend). He turns over way too much ball at 10.
That said though, I believe O’Connor would make a valuable contribution at 11 where he can run at defences to his heart content without a thought for putting another player into space. O’Connor has a decent boot (though I don’t expect him to be kicking much ball) and is strong in the tackle-bust. Additionally, Tomane did not have a blinder of a game (probably due to the ball being passed down the line very seldomly).
2. Michael Hooper. Again, a great talent. But so far, very little impact on the series (barring his ability to cover 12 in a pinch). Consider the impact of Heinrich Brussow on the 2009 Lions tour. Now try to remember if you’ve seen Hooper effect a critical turnover.
Contrast with Liam Gill securing loose ball seconds from fulltime in the second test off a Lions throw-in. I think it’s time for Deans to rotate Gill and Hooper or preferably swap Hooper for George Smith.
Throughout the first two Tests of this series, I’ve felt that the Lions are there for the taking.
They play a very structured game that lacks magic – except for George North’s efforts in the first Test. That was pretty magical.
This lions team lacks a Shane Williams. Their midfield threat is well-contained by Lealiifano and Ashley-Cooper (who has put in consistently high quality performances this series) and their setpiece is not as dominant as expected.
Where they do have the wood on the Wallabies is at the breakdown (which is easily remedied with the introduction of George Smith) and the kicking power of their 10 and 15 (which would be more than countered by Jesse Mogg who could restore some parity in the kicking duels and bring an extra running game to boot).
Where the Wallabies will beat the Lions is on the counter-attack, in broken play and by individual brilliance. It’s how the All Blacks beat the Northern Hemisphere teams, and it’s how Australia has beaten Wales in recent history.
With Deans, this means getting the selections right for the deciding test. I would play the same 1-8 as the second test with George Smith in for Hooper. Backline as follows: Genia, Beale, O’Connor, Lealiifano, Ashley-Cooper, Folau, Mogg.
At the start of Series, I predicted a 2-1 victory to the Lions with all the games being close and no dead-rubber games.
At this stage, I think my prediction will hold, unless Deans gets the selections for the team for the decider in Sydney right.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.