Is Chris Froome too flighty? Is Peter Sagan staggering? Is Mark Cavendish unstoppable? Is Matt Goss gone?
The opening stages of this highly entertaining 100th edition of the Tour de France have raised many questions, the answers to which may provide us with the key to unlocking how the rest of the Tour pans out.
Let’s examine the four questions raised above and see what answers we can deduce.
Is Chris Froome too flighty?
Perhaps, but it will be to the benefit of the viewers.
Not surprisingly, given the nature of the first six stages, most of the focus has been on the sprinters. The general classification riders are yet to turn a pedal in anger, except for a brief moment towards the end of Stage 2 when a frisky Froome decided to get out of his saddle and stretch his legs in what many thought was a fruitless waste of energy on a small, meaningless hill.
True, he did gain a small break over his rivals, but it was never going to stick, and after almost misjudging a corner on the twisting descent, Froome sat up and merged back into the peloton.
He was widely criticised for his apparent rush of blood, but the criticism also came from the same people who bemoaned the boring style in which Team Sky wore down their opponents last year.
You can’t have it both ways people!
From the moment Froome launched his mini-attack on Stage 2, cycling fans should have been rejoicing. It was the first indication that Sky’s defence of this year’s Tour may not follow the same tedious pattern as last year, whether they want it to or not.
Chris Froome is his own man. He is a bike racer who rides to win. He may be awkward, he may be accident prone, but he’ll never die wondering. With nothing (or no-one) to hold him back, expect to see more of Froome testing out the legs of his rivals, especially when we hit the higher mountain passes.
Yes, Sky will try and wear down their opponents with that almost unsustainable steady pace at the front of the group – let’s face it, they still have the team to do it – but Froome, if he is feeling good, may just try and ride off into the sunset anyway.
Whether he wins the Tour or goes down in a flaming heap, you can rest assured that, even if we can’t work out the theory behind his tactics, he will ride with more panache than Sir Bradley Wiggins did before him.
In fact he already has. In that short couple of minutes of apparent madness on Stage 2, Froome has already been more exciting than Wiggins was throughout the entire 2012 Tour.
Is Peter Sagan staggering?
Has wonderboy’s form finally plateaued?
Probably not, but some questions do need to be asked.
Two seconds and a third are good reward for any cyclist, but for the Cannondale team leader who has a dedicated band of merry men dancing around him, protecting him from the elements, it may not be enough.
Sagan is not a pure sprinter, although he is a damn good one. His favourite parcours is one with a kick in its tail. The Slovakian is almost unequalled on an uphill sprint finish and his chance to stand on the top podium spot over the next two weeks will come.
However, one must question his timing over the frantic last few hundred metres of a sprint, and perhaps his tactical nous as well. He was beaten by marking the wrong rider at Milan-San Remo earlier this year, and had a string of minor placings in the spring classics before finally snagging a victory.
He was unlucky in Stage 2 to be beaten by Jan Bakelants’ last gasp breakaway win, but his failure to overcome Orica-GreenEDGE’s Simon Gerrans in a drag race to the line at the end of Stage 3 would have to trouble the young tyro.
Nine times out of ten Sagan should beat Gerrans in that scenario, so why didn’t he? Was it bad positioning leading into the sprint? A lack of legs? Overconfidence? A tactical error? Or just a bad day?
Two days later, he was beaten by a far superior sprinter in Mark Cavendish. Nothing surprising about that really, but consider this. The Stage 5 sprint looked to be a head to head battle between Andre Greipel’s Lotto-Belisol and Cavendish’s Omega Pharma-Quickstep, except that it was gate crashed by two ring ins.
Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen, led out beautifully by Gert Steegmans, timed his run perfectly and weaved his way beautifully through the milling throng to score himself second place.
The second gate crasher was Sagan, and the aerial shot of the finish was quite illuminating. Sagan accelerated into the picture from nowhere, closing down the advantage of Cavendish and Greipel almost instantly. But that was where it ended. He drew level with Greipel, but without a kick or the ability to sustain the speed he had used to get there, Cavendish just waltzed away.
Sure he beat Greipel to the line, but it was another minor placing that could have been a step or two higher had he entered the final hundred metres in better position or timed his run slightly differently.
This is a harsh assessment, as Cavendish has no peer when it comes to flat bunch sprints, and I have no doubt that Sagan was riding his guts out, but perhaps this is as good as it gets for the young Slovakian?
As I said, his time will come on the more difficult uphill sprints, where his amazing strength will see him triumph more often than not, but for finishes that require a little more tactical thought or timing, Sagan may have already reached his zenith.
Is Mark Cavendish unstoppable?
No he isn’t, but only when he is sick.
Seriously though, once again Cavendish has proved just how good he is. His victory over all the main sprint contenders in Stage 5 was stunning.
In what turned out to be a head-to-head battle with Greipel’s Lotto-Belisol outfit, Cavendish made the best of a scrappy lead out to win riding away from Greipel, Sagan and Boasson Hagen. Honestly, he made it look easy.
While he may never win another green jersey, he will almost certainly break the Tour stage win record currently held by cycling immortal Eddy Merckx.
Cavendish is all about winning bike races and I’m sure if you asked him whether he would swap his stage win for Sagan’s two seconds, a third and overall lead in the green jersey competition, the Manxman would elect to hang onto his stage win.
Pre-Tour I suggested that Cavendish could win six stages of this year’s Tour. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that that still isn’t possible.
Is Matt Goss gone?
If he isn’t than he is haemorrhaging badly.
No doubt the Australian is trying his hardest to break his run of poor form, and no one would be more frustrated than him at his below-par performances.
Whether it is from the weight of expectation, illness, a lack of conditioning, attitude or just plain bad luck, it is hard to pinpoint exactly where things have gone wrong for Goss.
Stage 5 neatly summed up the situation for the Orica-GreenEDGErider. He wasn’t the only rider to drop off the pace on the small, uncategorised climb that appeared with just 12 kilometres to go, but he was the only one of the major sprinters not to stay in touch with the peloton.
Even Cavendish, a notoriously dodgy climber, made it and with enough energy to spare to go on and win the sprint from Boasson Hagen, Sagan and Greipel.
Whether Goss is in shape or not, his confidence must be taking a battering. Not making the finish of Stage 5 confirms that he is not the rider he once was, and as a result Orica-GreenEDGE will be looking for other options in the sprints to come.
He is lucky his team has had such a successful start to the Tour, otherwise the glow from the blowtorch would be absolutely blinding.
Di Cunningham
Guest
BMC don't seem to offer Cadel the same support as other teams eg Sky, Cannondale, OGE, when all we see is a mass of their riders together all the time. As a rookie, my opinion is that Evans is not surrounded by the best!
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Thanks for clearing something up for me Sean. So Matt Goss is actually the riding in France somewhere this year. Just nowhere on our TV screens. And just a reminder people that Peter Sagan is 23 years old. Worth keeping that in mind. With more time and experience he will start to turn a lot of those near misses into big victories.
Sean Lee
Expert
I think a lot of the pressure would be self imposed. Goss knows that he hasn't brought the results that were expected of him when he signed on as one of OGE's marquee riders. No one would be hurting more than him and he must becoming extremely frustrated. I don't like being critical of riders, especially when they're out there giving their all and I'm at home sitting on the couch, but I think it is time for Goss to go back to basics and start again. He is too talented a rider to just fade away. If he has the drive and determination to work on his deficiencies then he can come back. The motivation will have to come from within though.,
Sean Lee
Expert
Doesn't matter how many times you read something, you always find new mistakes a day later....when it is too late! I agree with you that GreenEDGE probably weren't fully focussed on protecting Goss for the sprint, but the line is continually trotted out that Goss can usually get over humps and rises that other sprinters can't. He was on the podium a few years back at the Australian Nationals, a gruelling course with multiple circuits over Mt. Buninyong, so we know he can climb a little bit. Anyway, I hope he bounces back. It is easy to sit back and be critical from the comfort of our lounge rooms, but I certainly think there is a problem with Goss at the moment.
Sean Lee
Expert
Yeah, sorry Abdu, but Goss, along with Renshaw were two of the best lead out men in the world when they were working with Cav at HTC.
Abdu
Guest
Highly optimistic and good on you for keeping the faith, but I can't. He needs to get over some decent hills before the next sprinter's stage (10) then it's a long haul until the flat of the Champs Elysees. If Goss even makes it to stage 10 I'll be surprised, to Paris and I'll be eating my beanie... When Gerry says Goss has been under pressure, I reckon he means it's from the team (to win or get cut).
Bones506
Roar Guru
Unproven as a lead out man sorry but incorrect. Goss was regularly used as a lead out man for HTC highroad when they had Cav, Griepel, Renshaw and Goss. Goss and Renshaw used in the same way Hansen and Hendo are now used.
Abdu
Guest
Putting Goss into a secondary role would mean he needs to wind his salary and ego way back, which he won't (nothing against him, he's young and probably shouldn't be thinking that way yet). He's unproven as a leadout man (would rather look at an ex trackie), and to be honest I don't reckon they need that much emphasis on a sprint team. Gerry Ryan should meet with Blanco Belkin (or whoever they are) this week and agree a straight swap for Renshaw. Failing that, let's get another Canadian on the team to actually win a Grand Tour - Ryder Hesjedal...
Psych_ling
Guest
I wouldn't write off Goss at this stage. Yes, his results have been dodgy but I can only imagine that OGE are still on a high & protecting the yellow jersey will be the thing on their minds until the Pyrenees. The pressure is off the team now & I suspect Goss may well surprise later in the Tour. I think it's a 'quiet thing' for him. Gerry Ryan said in an interview that Goss has been put under 'enormous pressure' to secure their first stage win. Now that it has been done by Gerrans, I suspect that Goss will find his moment.
Sean Lee
Expert
Amazing stuff Bones. The pointy end of a sprint finish is not for the faint hearted, that's for sure!
Bones506
Roar Guru
Read this guys - from CyclingTips (Wade Wallace) interviewing Henderson about the lead out. Lotto punched out 74kph in the last km! “The thing about Cavendish is that whoever starts behind, will finish behind. Cav, Greipel and Kittel all have the same speed. If any of them get delivered at a high speed, they’re all super quick — it’s incredible. So the goal is not to start the sprint behind Cavendish. Nine and a half times out of ten you’ll finish behind him if you do. But that’s the same with Greipel, and that’s the same with Kittel. I said to Greipel before the sprint, ‘If you need a jump, just lay off my wheel one bike length and kick into my slipstream.’ It was a hard sprint today and I said to him ‘I’m gonna have to go from 500m, and it’s slightly uphill with a little bit of a headwind. So just lay off my wheel before you accelarate. That’ll give you another 2km/hr on Cav before he starts his sprint’. That’s exactly what he did. In the final straight I left an alley-way against the barriers with just enough room for him [Greipel]. A good sprinter knows not to ever come down the barriers. When Greipel came around me on the inside Cav knew he couldn’t follow there and had to go around the outside.” When I asked how many watts these guys would have been pushing in those final 200m, Greg said, “Kittel pushes the most. He’s 93 kilos and pushes about 1900 watts. Greipel gets up to around 1800w. They can push that power after 200km, or just after a coffee shop ride. That’s what makes them so impressive.”
Kate Smart
Expert
Well Sean, a lack of proof reading is unforgivable. How will I keep reading! LOL! Back to the serious matters of cycling...... I'm not sure what's going on with Goss, but he did attempt to contest the first stage sprint, until his bike fell apart. Now that OGE have the yellow, I wonder if there has been a shift in focus for him. I also think it's fair to point out that whilst Cav is improving at getting over mountains, he's getting over them because his whole team are essentially carrying him over. I can't remember which stage of the Giro it was, but basically all of OPQS rallied around him and I think they did a similar thing with that uncategorised climb on stage 5. Obviously OGE can't do that with Goss when they've got yellow. As for the other questions...um...I'll need another coffee and get back to you, but yes, Froome's little effort on stage 2 was more exciting than Bradley Wiggins for the entire 2012 TdF. In fact, watching the plaster dry on my dining room ceiling, which is what I'm doing at the moment, is more exciting than last year's Tour. Something tells me the bar hasn't been set that high on that one!
Sean Lee
Expert
Ha ha Abdu, Cav will end up making me look silly! Thwarted by a bus in stage one and a crash in stage three. Otherwise he would have won 3 already! Maybe not. Let's see, what I meant to say was that Cav might win 4 stages.....are you buying this or should I just give up?
Sean Lee
Expert
Hi Mike. I loved Froome's little dig on stage two. Fair comments on Sagan, although once again last night he was in contention but couldn't quite get there. He is doing extremely well but you still have to wonder if it is possible for him to somehow convert these minor placings into wins. He'll win the green jersey and probably many more, especially if the rules stay as they are now, but he must be a little frustrated at his number of near misses. No doubting his strength, but may be a question mark over his tactics. And Yeah, posted too early to take last night's sprint into account.
Sean Lee
Expert
Before anyone picks it up, yes I know Steegmans doesn't ride for Sky. Poor proof reading and editing by me before submitting - sorry!
Bones506
Roar Guru
Solid write up Sean. I think people (not you of course!) forget that Gerrans is a very good sprinter. He migt not be in the top say 7 of current Peleton but he is not out of place in the top 15 or so and any one on their day can get up. the lead out was perfect. I think Sagan has a bit of arrogance in him, all sprinters do. But thinking you can win from anywhere at any time is a mistake. He is only very young and has shown he learns quickly. Almost no margin for error in a sprint. Even in lower club racing you know the second you have lost it b/c you went to early or went too late. When you do get it right you think to yourself - geez that was easy! Gossy - I think he will run close. The pressure is off him a bit now. I think Mathews is probably the next sprinter to come through. Goss is the top paid (as I understand it) rider in OGE so hard to leave him out of the TDF. He was a great leadout man for Cav at HTC so perhaps the mantle gets passed to Mathews and Goss plays secondary. Hendo - What a beast.
Abdu
Guest
Nice piece Sean. 1. Bertie had an early crash so no one knows if he's just hiding well or recovering. I think Sky will put the rest of the peloton into the hurtbox on Saturday night and more so Sunday night. Saturday is a long flat drag early but ends in some steep climbs, and Sunday is a great one with 4 climbs (not hard individually) battering the peloton one after the other (no flat in between, it's descend then back up again). The riders will be tired and sore so the day before the rest day (Monday) is a perfect place for Froome (and Porte) to put a gap the GC. At a guess Froome will be in yellow come the rest day on Monday. 2. Sagan will still take the green jersey, and I'm not sure his team should be built around him as if he were a pure sprinter. They're not that good anyway, apart from Sagan I can't see a Cannondale rider being a chance in any jersey colour. Quality like him doesn't go away. In five years time we'll be saying he won't win another Classic or green jersey on top of his 2 or 3... 3. Watching Hendo and his train just roll on by Argos was like a local scratch race and seeing the A graders come past... Last night Argos should have been putting Degenkolb into the frame because it was an uphill sprint, ok Kittell because he is clearly in form. Greipel's one speed and strength was made for last night's finish, only a complete blanket by OPQS on the front would have prevented it. The secret to beating Cav is let him beat himself. Let him crash in the run in (he crashed at 30k's to go but can crash in the last 3 or 4 corners when he gets crowded), then get in front of him early. Cav was grabbing at wheels rather than dictating things up near the front, and wasn't able to maintain one long drag race (he has a Mad Max style turbo button like a 6th gear instead). 4. I rest my case on Goss. He's taken someone else's spot, here Bling Matthew maybe? Gossy has been fat and out of shape since being back here in January, and hasn't shown any form. Bling was winning, heck even Leigh Howard would have been a better sprint option. Personally I'd have picked Mitch Docker or Baden Cooke for the value they'd bring to the team in comparison. OGE is a mates club like the Aussie cricket team, with the same problem that it's much harder to get booted off the team than it is to make it on. Told you Cav wouldn't win 6 (I know you didn't actually say that..).
SuperEel22
Roar Guru
I'd say Sagan left it too late to challenge Gerrans. Another metre and Sagan takes the stage there. Froome's little explosion in Stage 2 was just saying he was ready to ride although to do it on such a technical and fast descent probably wasn't the greatest idea given Froome isn't the best descender. It showed given he almost came to grief and Cadel Evans behind him was barely ruffled on the same corner.
Mike D
Guest
Quick responses: 1 - that break in stage 2 was purely psychological. It cost him a meaningless amount of energy, and it tells his rivals that he's in form and up for it. Nothing mad about it. 2 - Sagan hasn't reached his zenith, he's ridiculously talented. His team isn't great, especially compared to Lotto/OPQS, and he's doing well to get 2nd or 3rd without a leadout. He should have beaten Gerrans, but it's a minor blip, nothing more. 3 - A few hours too early! First things first, the OPQS leadout in stage 5 was absolutely textbook, nothing scrappy about it. He couldn't have been better placed. The stage 6 leadout was awful, but Cav also got it wrong, he went too far out (and crashed earlier in the stage). He's not unbeatable, but he or his team probably have to make a mistake for it to happen. 4 - Matt Goss was never there. I remember during last year's tour, Orica had pretty much perfected the leadout, and Goss never looked like winning. Apart from his MSR, he has very few victories of note. It's also worth noting that at HTC-Columbia a few years ago, he shared a team with Cavendish and Greipel, and was never considered a pure sprinter. I just don't think he has the ability to be a front-line sprinter for an ambitious team.
Al-Bo
Guest
Three seconds and a third for Sagan now. That seems to be the story of his season in the big races. Plenty of less significant wins, but he's missing all his main targets (even if he is in the green jersey). I blame the beard.