This Saturday night the Wallabies walk along a tall, narrow ridge. Down one side is a devastating, and for some in the camp career altering, loss.
The other direction is a victory that ensures this Wallabies group, perhaps viewed as underachieving, will always have an historic occasion to hang their hat on.
Here are a couple of things that stand out to me as important considerations for how the third and final Lions Test will play out.
George Smith is back
The man many still believe is the strongest Australian openside flanker playing is available again. He will certainly bring some strength in terms of knowledge, versatility and game understanding.
I believe respect for his body of work and status in rugby circles slightly inflated his Brumbies exploits this year in many a nostalgic viewer, but I can’t argue that he was a very effective player this year.
His strongest games for Brumbies – where he was legitimately in best-on-field discussions – were the first few back.
The hope from me is a lay-off; injury enforced or not, will see a similar level of strength and purpose on his game. As the Super Rugby season took its toll he reverted to a more nuanced style that involved more linking and less belligerent ball carrying.
Smith’s performance needs to build on Hooper’s strong ball running and speed around the park while adding a higher level of ruck impact in what might be his last ever Wallabies match.
Having said that, he does get around the park well and will adequately fill in at fly-half for those times Christian Leali’ifano isn’t available to do James O’Connor’s job.
Ben Mowen is a high-performance conundrum
The same reason I had conflicting feelings about Ben Mowen’s tremendous work with the Brumbies this year have also translated to his play with the Wallabies.
Mowen shows a remarkable ability and desire to get around the field and be involved as often as possible at the ruck, with the ball and in tackles. But he also gives away a lot of penalties that negates some of the good work, especially evidenced last weekend.
The simple problem is Mowen spends a lot of time on the wrong side of the ruck, in front of the last feet and struggles mightily to respect the referee’s call for “hands off” as quickly as others.
Combining Mowen with Smith means we will have two flankers that have a particular penchant for drawing the attention of the referee.
As players who are present at so many rucks and mauls I hope they are smart about how they tried to influence the game because they will both have many opportunities to do so, positively and negatively.
Don’t give Leigh Halfpenny more chances to win the game.
Backs reserves are left thin
Deans is tempting fate with his decision to make the bench a six/two split in favour of forwards. He hasn’t added any particularly game-changing forwards to the list either.
In the first Test the Wallabies backline was shifted due to injury in the very first minute and they kept dropping all night. I’m sure I saw Hawkeye, Houlihan and Klinger arguing on the sideline about just how to attend to all the wounded flooding off the field.
Adam Ashley-Cooper is now the most important defender in the backline with Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies together in the middle of the field.
He’s also the one who’s been beaten up in both games so far and needed more time to work into game shape during the week. Trying that trick a third time in a row is stretching the realms of good management a long way.
Leaving Nick Phipps and Jesse Mogg as the only back reserves means Adam Ashley-Cooper coming off, even just five or 10 minutes before time, will cause a fairly painful re-jig.
If another back has had to make way before that stage things will be even uglier. Deans needs to pray and fast in the hope Ashley-Cooper isn’t injured.
I always thought the series was over if Will Genia was injured as he is one of the main difference makers. Lack of bench alternatives leaves a second scenario where the Wallabies could be carrying another large liability at outside centre.
Only a naive person would suggest the fact an openside flanker defending at inside centre for a set piece move didn’t a large part in the Lions’ second try at Suncorp.
Attacking cohesion
Looking at the bench of each team I think the Lions now have a balance needed to come home with a wet sail in game three, after fading somewhat in the first two Tests.
Look at who is going to be running onto the field late in the match – Tom Youngs, Mako Vunipola, Richie Gray, Justin Tipuric, Connor Murray and Manusamoa Tuilagi.
That’s a whole heap of increased work-rate, forward impetus at the ruck and powerful running around the park. I can’t see the Wallabies bench adding the same level of power and impact.
What that means is the Wallabies can’t afford to be the ones coming from a length back late in the contest.
The Wallabies must develop some attacking cohesion earlier in the match and force the Lions to scramble and exert more energy defending their line rather than setting up kicks for goal.
The Wallabies improved in their cohesion in the second Test, more than some people realise.
While they didn’t decimate the Lions in the possession measurement and there were many frustrating errors, they held the ball for five phases or longer 13 times over the match. The Lions only did that seven times.
That includes the strong build up to the much-awaited try.
Key to this is Will Genia moving the ball around the first few channels rather than just selecting the first runner available and a fluid partnership in midfield orchestrating the Wallabies wider speed men.
At times in the second Test Genia seemed content to just pick up the ball and shovel it along, he can’t do that this weekend.
Genia needs to drag the first man around the defensive line and keep hitting forwards around the corner or wider out. Then the backs will have room to move, after the Lions have been stressed by consecutive phases.
Even a poor O’Connor couldn’t mess that up by the 15th phase.
The Wallabies shouldn’t rely on a fast finish, instead there needs to be cohesion and clinical execution earlier in the match.
On the verge of an historic achievement, leaving more ‘til the end of the games gives more room to the uneven bounce of the ball, the referee’s interpretation and lady luck.
Of course, that’s where we’ll end up anyway, won’t we?
I can’t see this being over until the game clock shifts to red and we’re waiting until the final kick puts the ball in touch.
jeznez
Roar Guru
MiC I really hope we don't see any of those aimless grubbers. They only come in the dying stages of matches where we need a try to take the lead. I love George but I hope Hooper has replaced him by that stage of the match, if it comes about. Ideally we are up by ten at that stage which would also stop him grubbering.
jeznez
Roar Guru
When he first got put in the WB's as a TH back in 09 he was packing with his feet too far back, he had adjusted by the November tours that year and smashed it while in the north. He is mucked around by being forced to play too much LH IMO. he has a tendency to over extend and to come up under pressure both issues can be solved, one by packing closer and the other by hanging his weight off his opponents neck. That is one of the joys of TH play not only do you get to try and put your opponents head between his @rse cheeks, you try to do it by pinning his chin on his chest and bending him in half. Two side notes to add Topo follows the general Argie philosophy which is different from the Aussie pack mode of right foot up on the TH side. They pack with the left foot marginally back and the hips tilted in, in order to angle the drive. Have tried it and hasn't worked for me but I certainly defer to the author of 'The Art of Scrummaging' in any debate on technique. Last night was my 40th g'day drinks an I had the work crew drinking with my rugby mates (amongst other groups of family, Uni, etc). One of the work guys who is a league bloke was blown away by the size of my footy mates. He wanted to pack a five man 10s scrum against us. I offered to set it up but confused him when I explained that I was the third reserve TH out of the boys there. Given our five man pack would have topped out over 600 kilo me being 116kg was not enough to make the starting side. Technique rules.
Elisha Pearce
Expert
It was Ben Mowen on the final pen roardog. Lying over the back of a ruck with his hands on the ball.
strupper2003
Guest
All valid and well thought points biltongbek. interesting article elisha.
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
Am I sensing some animosity towards George Smith? And thats two 'hot tips' BTW.
Mick the Clown
Guest
Hot tip for the game. George Smith to give away 6 points in penalties. George Smith to get isolated hitting the ball up out wide, and will kick at least 1, possibly 2 aimless grubbers through the line that the Lion's will return with interest.
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
Spot on DT - Hooper was there, but was cleaned out very quickly and was ineffective. I had a look at the Pocock YT highlight reel further up in the conversation and it certainly shows how it should be done. That said, the Wallabies were beated to the breakdown also, which didnt give him much protection.
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
Yes jeznez - BA's technique is poor (something I do not understand) and without the weight and shove of Timani behind him to compensate he could be found out again. He seems to pack with his head below his hips consistently, even i the early scrums, and his footwork looks all wrong - too far back at the engagement rather than right foot up, heel turned out. What do you reckon?
DT
Guest
It was glaringly obvious last week that Warburton and his Lions were far more accurate at the breakdown than in Brisbane. I kept a close watch on Hooper and he was easily shoved off the ball..I don't remember him getting close to making a turnover. It was frustrating, as the only way we would get the ball back off the Lions was in tackle contact, or dropped ball etc via our defence. It's so much more difficult when that breakdown battle for possession is lost. Hooper brings a lot of positives, but presence over the ball isn't one of them. He seems too small. As we know, GS is die meister, so Deans has made a canny selection here, especially with the ref renowned for being a bit slack in interpretation at the breakdown. From an Australian POV, irrespective of Lions not coming through the gate etc, GS will be the first to the tackle and will be seen to be the first at the tackle, and will stay on his feet with the ball in his mitts long enough to turn it over of win a penalty. You can bet on that.
jeznez
Roar Guru
BRTD - you mean our tighthead side? If so I agree, the return of Corbisiero at LHP for the BIL is big - will give them back that scrum dominance they enjoyed in the start of the 1st Test. Is up to BA and that side of the scrum to go as hard as they can to limit the damage likely to be done there. Once Corbisiero and Jones go off I expect our scrum advantage to return - we really need the Poite to be on his game to note the change at that stage and not continue to penalise the Wallaby scrum after the Lion's two big guns go off.
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
I predict that we will struggle in the scrums (tighthead side in particular), hold parity in the lineouts, be beaten overall at the breakdown (albeit GS will assist in this regard), our loosies will monster Halfpenny and Phillips and the centre channels will be two-way firing range, albeit that both 10's will struggle to get structured ball to the centres from set pieces. I share feelings of many Roarer’s regards AAC; ludicrous decision to pick only 2 backs for the bench - AAC will likely have a huge workload and come in for some close attention. Genia and Izzy will be the wild cards for Wallabies, North, Tuilagi and Halfpenny for the Lions. I cannot believe that I am saying this, but I just have this feeling that Beale will fire tomorrow, and that would be fantastic if it is the case. CL and Halfpenny both safe as houses with the boot so both sides will take points pretty much anywhere within their own halves. My concern for the Wallabies is the scrum (it will fold) and turn-over / infringements at the breakdown (Mowen in particular). If this does not prove to be correct I reckon we are in for a good win. If not, we could be troubs thanks to Halfpenny's boot.
The Battered Slav
Guest
Bring McRae out of retirement?
The Battered Slav
Guest
Not at all. I myself have been a vocal critic of Deans, particularly his recent insistence to have JOC at 10. I'm certainly not afraid to voice my displeasure with Deans. However, I have never and will never want the Walabies to lose. If they do lose and Deans is given the heave-ho, that to me would be a silver lining to the loss, not something that I will be hoping for. This is a once in 12 year event and you're willing them to defeat just to have a slightly better chance of getting rid of Deans? That's madness. Think about it...do you really want to deal with 12 years worth of crowing from NH fans just to have a marginally better chance of getting rid of Deans?
The Battered Slav
Guest
Anything that provides Genia a bit more Lebensraum around the fringes would be OK by me.
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
Agree. Am a fan of Mowen - he is very willing and mobile, but he was expensive for penalties in the last game (all deserved IMHO) and the ref will have eyes on him again tomorrow.
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
Very droll chaps :)
maxxlord
Roar Rookie
This is not news my friend, i have been consistent in my views that Deans must go whatever the short term losses . I assume you are Australian? So you have to always back the team whatever they serve up. I'm not, i choose to support the Wallabies because they believe in playing good football when they not under an overrated bonehead of a coach. You are not free to speak the truth due to national pride issues, i respect that, but allow the rest of us to make the honest calls.
budgie
Guest
They could play for the "ashes"....!
Rob na Champassak
Roar Guru
Yes, but Hitler would constantly be playing for territory, and the endless bombs would just not suit our style.
Stiffarm
Guest
Does anyone think we need to put halfpenny under more pressure in general play? Put up a few bombs? He could have played in a suit the last 2 games. Someone should rough him up a bit