History and stats prove you cannot write Aussies off

June, 1989 – An Australian team in a state of disarray with the retirement of Greg Chappell, Dennis Lillee and Rod Marsh and hit by a ‘rebel tour’ to South Africa, arrives in England to play the Ashes.

Led by Allan Border, the team was ridiculed by the English press and was termed as “one of the worst sides to tour the country ever.”

Amidst all the gloom, the side comprising of Dean Jones, Geoff Marsh, Merv Hughes, Terry Alderman, Mark Taylor and a young, gritty Steve Waugh raised their hands and made themselves counted that resulted in a watershed moment in Australian cricket.

The end result: Handing a humiliating 4-0 whitewash to the hosts, the sacking and hostile abuse by the press of England skipper David Gower and the beginning of the period of Australian dominance in world cricket.

There is a sense of deja vu which is being associated with the current Australian team. There can be no denying in the fact that the team is in shambles, just like it was in the summer of ‘89. The last-minute sacking of Mickey Arthur, David Warner’s fisticuff with Joe Root, a disappointing team culture, captain’s dodgy back and a poor run of tours in the recent past; nothing seems to be going right for them.

Moreover, the 16-man squad was met with reactions ranging from ridicule to dismissiveness in most quarters. On the face of it, the pre-Ashes match-up have left the Baggy Greens as big underdogs for the first time in a generation.

But a closer look to the England side reveals that all is not as merry as it appears to be. Since the beginning of 2012, a year that started with England on top of the world Test rankings, the Ashes holders have repeatedly struggled to post match-winning first innings totals, an aspect of their game that was monumental in their climb to number one.

According to the BBC, during the time between the last home Ashes series, a 2-1 victory in 2009, and the 4-0 win over India in 2011 that confirmed England as the world’s best, they were posting average first-innings scores of 412. However, over the past 18 months and in a run that has seen England win only three of their last seven series, that average has fallen to 323, a drop of almost 100 runs.

The batting dip has had just that effect on the performance of England’s attack. Whereas the period 2009-11 saw them dismissing the opposition for an average score of 297, the last year and a half has seen that rise to 336. Coupled with the batting effort, England have gone from earning an average first-innings lead of 115 to conceding a deficit of 13.

In contrast, strangely, the Australian batting lineup has shown signs of drastic improvement. Against similar opponents to England – both sides were beaten at home by South Africa, England won in India compared to the Aussies’ 4-0 humiliation – Michael Clarke’s side have been registering average first innings scores of 412 with the bat while conceding 327 with the ball. In the warm-up games in the run-up to the Ashes, the batsmen impressed against Somerset before hitting Worcestershire all around the park.

In a contest where both the sides have equally formidable bowling attacks, it will all boil down to which side’s batting lineup posts imposing totals.

Going back to ‘89, Gower put the Australians to bat in the first Test. Australia made 601/7 declared with Waugh the star, making 177. Terry Alderman took 10 wickets for the match and Australia won by 210 runs. After such a drubbing, the English side never recovered.

Australia might be firm underdogs going into this series, but being underdogs doesn’t mean as much as in the Ashes as it does in normal circumstances. Here, pride and history is at stake. Stats prove that it will be foolish to write off the Aussies completely.

Great sporting triumphs are the product of the coming together of talent, perseverance and a fanatical desire to win. At the end of it all we will see if the current crop of Baggy Greens, under an old-fashioned and beer guzzling coach, have what it takes to reclaim the urn.