Game 3 at ANZ stadium. The third straight Origin decider. Imagine yourself running out to face the roar of 80,000 diehard rugby league fans.
You turn to the south side of the stadium and see the Blatchy’s Blues, an army of blue wigs. The fireworks explode out of the ground and you think you are about to play the biggest game of your life.
How one error can mean losing. How one missed tackle can leak a try. How sometimes even giving it 110% won’t be enough.
You would feel nervous. Every player that goes out on Wednesday night will feel like that. But some players can handle the nerves, some players have been there before and Queensland have the majority of those players.
If the game comes down to the last 30 seconds Queensland will have the ability to stay calm and come up with the right plays and execute them well. NSW, I fear, will be nervous and lack structure.
The interchange
For a long time it was a case of put your best 13 on and then rest on the bench. Times have changed and the interchange bench is now one of the most underrated strategic weapons.
Both coaches will have to time the interchanges right. It is about bringing the hard running forward on when the opposition’s defence is getting fatigued.
For NSW this man is Andrew Fifita and for Queensland this man is Josh Papalii. We have seen how damaging they can both be to a defensive line in club games as well as the last Origin games.
Another talking point is the utility. Last game Daly Cherry-Evans came on for Corey Parker and Josh Reynolds was supposed to come on at lock but ended up playing hooker.
Both these players are skilful and have proven themselves at club level. Reynolds brings energy and aggression while Cherry-Evans brings skill and a great running game.
Halves and hooker
Obviously Queensland have us in this catergory. I don’t think Cooper Cronk has really been himself this series, however Johnathan Thurston was back to himself in Game 2 and will most probably be hard to stop in Game 3. I’m sure Cronk will step up as well.
Fortunately, NSW has a better goal kicker in James Maloney, who has kicked 89% of goals this season, while Thurston has kicked only 69%.
Cameron Smith and Robbie Farah are very different hookers. Smith is a leader who calls out appropriate plays, stays cool and leads by example, with passion and confidence.
Farah on the other hand lets the stats do the talking. His whopping 64 tackles in Game 2 last year was an Origin record and if he plays 80 on Wednesday I think the number of tackles will be well up near that number. Farah also has a superb kicking game from dummy-half, can force a drop out and assisted NSW’s only try in Game 2.
Outside backs and fullback
While again it looks like Queensland have us in this department, the NSW backs deserve more credit than they are currently getting.
The Morris twins are big, very fast and good defenders. Michael Jennings can pull of the occasional freakish try, Josh Dugan can break tackles and make linebreaks from nothing. James McManus will be targeted but I believe he will play a lot better than Nathan Merritt did as he can do more than just catch the ball and put it down.
Queensland have that very dangerous left side and they rely on Greg Inglis to draw the defenders (especially the winger) and pop the last pass to Darius Boyd, who is one of he best finishers in the game.
Thurston will also use Inglis as a decoy or will dummy to him, making the NSW defenders rush in his direction and then throw the cut-out pass to Boyd. If NSW are to stop this happening, McManus needs to stay on his wing while Josh Morris and Luke Lewis cover Inglis (Morris can do this by himself as he has proven time after time).
Dugan needs to shift from the behind in the middle of the field to the left edge to provide back up.
Forwards
It is very likely Paul Gallen and Greg Bird will play for NSW. The media just want to sell stories and that is why you hear different news about them all the time.
NSW’s forwards have to work extremely hard and need to create second phase play. Queensland devote more men to the tackle, making it harder for people like Trent Merrin to offload. If we can get the offloads away, our backs will have more room to weave their magic.
Obviously NSW has the advantage of agility and in the forwards we just about mach them in experience. Gallen, Ryan Hoffman and Merrin need to do the real grunt work. While this happends we need Bird and Lewis passing, stepping and putting on big hits to give us a more well-rounded pack, with James Tamou, Fifita and Anthony Watmough making sharp bursts, busting tackles and staying solid in defence.
For Queensland, Matt Scott and Nate Myles will need to do the hard yards, with Sam Thaiday running hard lines at smaller NSW men.
NSW need to be very cautious of Corey Parker’s offload and Ben Te’o, Matt Gillett and Papaplii will aim to speed the game up coming off the bench.
While I will never doubt Queensland’s passion to win, surely the team that has lost seven in a row want it more.
If NSW start and finish strong, because the end of the game is where Queensland always get us, stop the left side attack, offload and (for the love of God) don’t do anything stupid, we should win.
Jack Daniels
Roar Pro
No Bird??????
Tom
Guest
Thankyou V.O.R. I agree with you 100% that Stuart and Gordon are in hot form. And compared to Dugan and McManus, I would feel a lot more comfortable with Brett and Michael on the field and believe also that they would have stellar performances. Now I guess my only argument is one that I have come to realise thanks to users on other articles of this site, which is what the game really is going to come down to; The forwards. If you have a dominating forward pack, you're team has the roll on and the defensive aggression (line speed). The opposition halves are rushed to their decision making and kick executions, fullbacks/wings left returning the ball into a wall of men, the centres shut down and event the opposition hooker left not passing half the time due to the line speed. Overall forward packs heavily impact the game. So when Daley kept Dugan in the side, and picked McManus, he probably felt that their lack of quality at the moment wouldn't impact the game as much as his forwards, and picked them based on their 100% fitness as of lately. He picked the lesser players based on their probability of staying on the field for the whole game (there's a chance that Jarryd Hayne was pulled out because of this too.) So with that being said, all they have to do is do their ball returning and bomb-taking and play safe to win us these games. That theory is based on my opinion, and there is no certainty that the half of it is true but I guess I'm just supporting Daleys decisions because you and I cannot change them, we have to live with them (haha.) On that note however, I do agree with what you said about Tamou. While he has a few games since his return (most of which were actually pretty solid, even great), he has still missed quite a few over origin 2. And his performances before he was suspended were mediocre to say the most. And the top that he was suspended in the first place (or second is it?) which confirms he has had issues. So why go with the chance he will step up, when you could introduce a prop with a relatively clean record, has played basically all year and is origin perfect? I really don't know, my only guess is that daley believes that when we did win in the forwards, Tamou was the front man (despite his extremely average game) and also his excellent year last year Yes NSW has indeed always played in safe. QLD playing the wildcard with the return of langer (which won them the series) for example, can pay off well. There's not much we can do about though, our culture encourages new generations the same as before and we don't look like changing any time soon. The defence issue is certainly there even if I previously so missed it. I'm not to familiar with Frizell or Docker but if they defend as you say they, like a Nigel Plum (IMO the hardest hitter in the comp), then perhaps they would be beneficial. I wonder if Boyd Cordner could bring this to the team? I have noticed his attack more so than his defence for the roosters (Sydney have had great defence this year though), but maybe he'll bring more enthusiasm to our hits. I do remember a shot he put on Willie Mason this year, but apart from that... Anyway, Luck, we might just need it.
Ret
Guest
And he topped the try scoring in 2006 when his team came last, by "just putting the ball down". Do you need any basic knowledge of the game to write an article?
Peeeko
Guest
I think frizelll has been playing for wales
Maroon Blood
Guest
I don't know who this Brett Stuart bloke is (Ricky's cousin?) but that Manly fella Brett STEWART is a pretty handy fullback.
V.O.R.
Guest
Thanks Tom, good read... I still think you needed to take some risks to beat this current QLD team in a decider. Different ballgame from Game 1. What Stuart and Gordon have shown in the last week or two is that they are quality. Quality is always quality and knows how to step up. As a QLD'er I would be very worried if they had picked Gordon as a rank outsider. Grant has mongrel, more than most, this guy is perfect for Origin and his form has picked up around origin time. Tamou has personal issues beyond drink driving and this is showing in his form this year. A liability. Carney is all class and asks way, way, way more questions that either of the halves you presently have. Sutton, such a handful, again, a big 5/8, as was Daley, thought he would of reflected on that a bit more. Sutton would be penetrating in Origin and hard to contain...offloads etc. Afraid NSW selectors have played it safe again when you really have the stocks to hurt QLD when on song. Not threatened at all with this current lot. The idea of blooding an absolute outsider is QLD's domain...I understand NSW would never be comfortable with that. There is no history of it. QLD have proven it can really pay off though. Maybe the selectors need a change in culture. Also I think you need some more starch in your defense. Maybe Fensom but particularly someone like Tyson Frizell or Adam Docker hurt the opposition. QLD have Teo and Papali to do this job on you guys. For this reason I believe the NSW pack to be soft in defense, Bird being the exception. Time will tell. Good luck.
Tom
Guest
I meant if any NSW side was going to step forward.
Tom
Guest
Let's review your team shall we :) 1. Brett Stuart - He was out of the first two origins due to injury, came back a few rounds ago. Despite how great he is, appears to not be in best form as he hasn't been playing. Daley has picked Dugan as he figures he underperformed game 1 because the rest of the team played terribly. I agree as dugan coming into game 2 state of origin, at suncorp stadium, with a side that has suffered a few injuries, against possibly the best origin side in history (off the back of his sides 7 years losing streak) AND after his best mate was suspended after THEY went out drinking, generally affects a players performance. I don't see us winning with a half powered stewart. Our only hope is with the x-factor dugan, in the case that kills it out there. 2. Gordon - Had his first game (after being injured for the second time this year) on friday. Missed most of last season because of broken leg, most of the 2011 season because of torn ACL. Needs to play injury free for longer to be considered for origin. Don't get me wrong, injury free gordon is one of the best WFB of the comp (as seen in his few games he manages to play )but he is out too much. Mcmanus, Taufua or Uate would be safer picks. 3. Michael Jennings - Tick, in form, experienced and in previous sides 4. Josh Morris - Tick, getting back to his full form, gets the job done regardless, experience and previous sides, although he should be switched w/ jennings as that's where the centres have been playing for the series 5. Brett Morris - Tick, relatively in form, aussy wing, experienced and in previous sides 6. Carney - Inconsistent. When he does perform he is origin worthy and has played there before. Was dropped from first/second origin though, too risky to break up our previously successful halves combination for him. 7. Adam Reynolds - If they were to bring in Reynolds, they should start Sutton to keep a combination happening (for comfortability and familiarity) and this would have to happened instead of maloney being picked in game 1. But again we already have that halves combination going with maloney and pearce who won the first game for us, why take the risk? 8. Fifita - While this could work, I see fifita as more a strike weapon that you bring on late game to bust through tired defence. Leave the workhorses like woods and even tamou on the field to push against QLD early. Don't blow his attack early on. 9. Robbie Farah (vc) - Tick, Why wouldn't he be captain? He captains the tigers? Leads like no other blue (cept gallen) 10. Tim Grant - Erm, he has not been a standout for penrith this year. Even big willie mason has been better. Better props are Woods and aussy prop Tamou. Woods is in form, and since his return tamou has been too (only missed a few games and he's our aussy prop for gods sake!) These guys have played origin more recently as well (is better to keep a foundation of a team for the whole series) The only way the out of form grant would be in this side is if he was picked game 1. Which he was not. 11. Boyd Cordner - HE is in form! But due to his lack of experience, I would pick hoffman. Cordner should be in the team, just not in the starting line-up. 12. Luke Lewis - Our best of the series, his performances speak all, BIG TICK 13. Greg Bird (C) -Tick, but not as captain. He doesn't captain his club side. He VC's them. Farah (an experienced captain) is a born leader anyway. He wouldn't make a bad captain as he is more experienced with the game then farah, but isn't the best one. Reserves 14. John Sutton - While I would have picked him over reynolds in game 1, daley didn't. Josh was dropped this game for some more size. While sutton has size what daley is looking for is a specialised forward, as such cordner is the better pick here. I say not sutton based on my picks for the rest of the side (and daleys.) None the less this is very arguable though as sutton is at his best no doubt and makes a rare halve/forwards utility player. 15. Anthony Watmough - Great player when he runs straight and doesn't pass, was in first side, experienced, Tick 16. Trent Merrin - Has played his best this year, has experience, Tick 17. Left field pick needed from toilers like Tyson Frizell, Adam Docker, Fensom etc - Frizell? I had to google this guy to match his name to a face. I have seen him play for the dragons and he is good, but a little too raw at this point(unlike other players of his age - cordner for eg) and certainly not ready at origin level let alone any rep. Docker is at the same deal. Fensom is a work horse and we don't need with the players I have mentioned above (could fit in as a starting player but doesn't beat the likes of greg bird, Merrin) . The best player for this position is without doubt fifita. Yes if you hadn't noticed I believe that daley's side is a near perfect pick with the injuries/supsensions at hand. And if any side was going to step forward and win us this decider, it will be his.
nopuritan
Guest
LATE MAIL Bird to play at 5/8 He has played in this position at SOO level before 2007 game three: coach: Graham Murray - won by NSW (game 3 was a dead rubber - qld won games one and two) 2008 game one and two: coach Craig Bellamy - game one won by nsw, games two and three won by qld poor old Loz....someone should tell him to start packing his sports bag
Jack Daniels
Roar Pro
I agree, I reckon we can't just shut down the halves or just shut down Inglis or just shut down the forwards, if QLD get put under pressure all over the park the can't execute their game. For NSW to win everything needs to work how u said in a chain reaction with forwards not being able to get the halves in position etc. We need to get repeat sets early tire out thier forwards make them lose their spark so their backs get frustrated
Maroon Blood
Guest
Absolutely anything can happen and it will come down to which team hits the ground running the hardest on the night and do the one percenters the best.
V.O.R.
Guest
Yer he won't....only Queensland have a history of selections like that. Some of our best origin moments come from players who were lleft field selections.
Tom
Guest
It's going to come down to who wins the forwards and who keeps their cool during the first 10 (QLD have been and still are fantastic at doing this). As you have seen in the first two games, whichever's team's forwards dominated, the halves of the other were rushed in delivering kicks and passes and underperformed. Even the centres and to an extent the fullback were covered too well to mark their place in the game (yes this means inglis.) If you watch game 1 you'll see greg taking some early runs but each time he didn't make the metres he would usually as he was marked too well. This discouraged him from taking runs as the game went on (till the last 20 when QLD struck back.) So whether or not the big players of qld play at their best is going to rely quite a bit on how their forwards play. What would happen if you chucked thurston and cronk into say a papa new guinea side against NZ, the PNG forwards would get battered and the halve combination wouldn't have too much to work with. Don't get me wrong, those two would inspire that team and they would play the best of their careers, but yeah if NSW can somehow outplay QLD with their forwards (this is going to be unlikely) than they can win. And how is what you said a fact? Would you have said that QLD were going to win the first game because it was likely? And did they? Anything can happen. Although unlikely I wouldn't go into the game thinking you have it in the bag just yet. Because their is no guarantee miracles can't happen. NSW by 1
Tom
Guest
I would have captained every sports side I loved too if it came down to that haah! I agree with you totally, queensland dropped forwards shillington and harrison because for the first time in 7 years nsw actually stepped forward and stood on top for majority of a game (this is game 1, certainly not game 2.) If queensland lose this decider, I wouldn't be suprised if they changed up the side more than they have for a while. As you said, tate and hodges are getting to the end of their career and I wouldn't expect hodges to return next year anyway. Players like will chambers will come forward for these men, and finally their will be a change in the tides. This is provided we win. Despite the home advantage, NSW have to get a HEAP of things right if they want to stand a chance this wednesday.
db swannie
Guest
Are you serious.JT couldn't even kick in game 1.He was injured & had the flu,Should not have played.Was a BIG mistake by MAL.As was shown in game 2 a fit JT will tear you apart.Something a fit Pearce can never do.
Jack Daniels
Roar Pro
Doubt Frizel will come into consideration
JezRu
Roar Pro
Perhaps if Pearce and Maloney had control of the game Farah wouldn't be forced to kick from dummy half? Further more playing for field position is a good strategy one that Pearce and Maloney should learn. I will agree the quality of his kicks wasn't great in game 2 but in general he is a very good kick.
V.O.R.
Guest
As a QLD'er this team from the players available is the one that would have me most worried. The key difference being a good mix of maturity and youth plus with the addition of Brett Stuart, Gordon, Carney, Adam Reynolds & Sutton you have the ability to score tries...Fifita is the best prop in the comp at the moment...clearly needs to run on... and Cordner & Lewis combo are a penetrating running back row. Safe to say NSW selectors have dropped the ball again. 1. Brett Stuart 2. Gordon 3. Michael Jennings 4. Josh Morris 5. Brett Morris 6. Carney 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Fifita 9. Robbie Farah (vc) 10. Tim Grant 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Luke Lewis 13. Greg Bird (C) Reserves 14. John Sutton 15. Anthony Watmough 16. Trent Merrin 17. Left field pick needed from toilers like Tyson Frizell, Adam Docker, Fensom etc
Jack Daniels
Roar Pro
So kicking to the corners in open spaces whilst keeping it in isn't good?
Carlos
Guest
Losing Hayne was a massive blow, but if I'm honest, I was quietly happy about this news. I have never been a fan of Gallen starting at prop and his immense and admirable passion has had a dark side for NSW. That is he demands way too much ball and NSW don't get results results for it. Its too bad for J Reynolds, but I think that Cordner is a better option on the bench, he and Fifita bring a new and welcome dynamic to the team. Personally I would have liked to have see G Stewart in their somewhere but oh well. If the refs decide to keep QLD back the ten and their markers square, NSW have a real chance on the back off their pack and bench.. NSW to win by 4 with the difference being a knock on, forward pass, Shepard try scored by the Scotsman...