Breaking down North Melbourne’s season to forget

If you formed a ladder based on each team’s best quarter, North Melbourne would be on top.

They’ve won 13 of 16 first quarters – at a percentage of 202.6 – which makes them the fastest starters in the AFL.

Indeed, only two other teams – Geelong and Hawthorn – have won any quarter 13 times, and neither with a percentage within 14 of North’s.

So when you hear the phrase “North’s best is up there”, numbers can back it up.

But, of course, this year there’s been a flipside to “North’s best” – North’s worst, which frequently appears in the final three quarters of matches.

That’s why, going into Friday night’s game with Carlton, they were outside the top eight with their season on the line.

As it turned out, North did drop the first quarter this week – comically, given it was ten scoring shots to six – and for a change it was them inflicting a comeback.

But the more things change, the more they stay the same.

A lapse as the game progressed cost them. The losing margin was within six points for the fifth time.

So what gives? How do we account for the lapses, for the gap between best and worst?

More directly, how do we diagnose North Melbourne 2013? Are they the side that has only twice lost by more than three goals? Or are they the side that six weeks from September knows they won’t be playing finals?

Firstly, the youth simply haven’t taken over yet.

It’s telling that of North’s top five players for effective disposals per game, all are 26 or over. This is why we get the damning sight of 35 year-old Brent Harvey getting the attention of taggers.

However, this is more reflective of where the club is at rather than an indictment on where it’s going.

If you scroll down the effective disposals list, for players with at least five games, five of the next six men are between the age of 20 and 22. Those are Ryan Bastinac, Aaron Mullet, Ben Cunnington, Shaun Atley and Jack Ziebell.

The future stars of the club are still bubbling below the surface, which isn’t at this stage a bad thing.

Bastinac, Mullet, Cunnington, Atley and Ziebell have all given us glimpses of their potential this season, but their games are not yet complete. The disposal stats show that the natural side is yet to mature and it’s more than fair to say the defensive side, as with a lot of young players, needs work.

Brad Scott was recently forced to test out the unusual tactic of playing two taggers.

But, at 20-22, you have to temper your expectations. With this age bracket, glimpses of potential rather than a realisation of it is a common outcome.

It will be a different story over the next two years, as the younger group matures to 22-24 and the older group (sans Harvey) to 28-30. That is a scary proposition.

Meanwhile, if you’re looking for reasons behind the post-quarter time lapses, the number of defensively-vulnerable players is a good place to start.

The second point to make about North’s year is the unsustainable ruck set-up. Todd Goldstein needs support.

For a team that averages ten more hitouts than their opponents (ranking second) it’s almost bizarre to suggest that a ruck problem exists. However in the Kangaroos’ case, it seems it does.

Goldstein is being forced to take almost all the ruck duties, with Drew Petrie occasionally playing back-up. Such has been Goldstein’s work load, prior to last week he’d been rotated just 20 times, the lowest of any ruckman.

It’s not hard to wonder what effect fatigue (both as individual games wear on and as the long season wears on) is having on him. It’s also not hard to question the wisdom of dragging Drew Petrie, who’s kicked nine goals the past two weeks, out of the forward line.

But while Goldstein has indeed been dominating the hitouts, around the ground North are hurting and this can be linked with the club’s fast starts and slow finishes.

In only one of North’s losses by less than three goals has an opposition ruckman not matched or beaten Goldstein in both disposals and marks. That game was back when the fatigue argument may be less relevant, in Round 1.

Just look at Friday’s game. Matthew Kreuzer was able to take two crucial marks at the death, play a big role in Carlton winning and overall have 17 disposals to his counterpart’s eight.

Going back further, it was Petrie who trailed Nic Naitanui by five metres as he leapt to the mark that set up West Coast’s after the siren win over North.

A competent and athletic back-up, with dual-position capabilities and able to keep up with the Naitanuis of the world, would complement Goldstein’s ruck dominance nicely. The question North must answer is whether Majak Daw can fulfil that criteria or if it’s time to look elsewhere.

A third point to make about the Roos is that they can’t really fall back on traditional excuses.

Based on 2012 results, North’s fixture this year looked to be the toughest of all, but on 2013 results it’s actually been fairly standard.

Their opponents to date have won a combined 130 games. On this measure that’s the ninth toughest draw at the conclusion of Round 17. Nothing to write home about.

They did have the easiest run last year, so the fixture is entirely valid when comparing their past two seasons, but you can’t mount an argument this year’s has been a fatal blow.

Similarly, injuries can’t be seen as much of an excuse, either. Two of their 19 year olds have suffered season-ending injuries but other than that it’s been relatively smooth sailing.

So, back to the question, how do we diagnose North Melbourne 2013?

They snuck into the top eight last year and, in hindsight, were always going to be unfairly judged as a result. Their percentage now is slightly above where it was at the end of last year, so realistically they’ve neither gone forward nor backwards.

This is the result of a list that was not – yet – ready to greatly improve on the fixture-aided eighth place finish of last season.

They’ve been plagued by fast starts and slow finishes, which can be attributed in part to these young players being vulnerable at times defensively, and also in part to adopting a one-man ruck approach that gifts the opposition an advantage particularly as games wear on.

However, with a band of talented young players “bubbling below the surface” sudden improvement next year should not be ruled out.

Overall, North are neither the side that has only twice lost by more than three goals nor the side that six weeks from September know they won’t be playing finals.

Truth is, they are somewhere in between.