Every year in the AFL, there are close matches that can set up a team’s season and also at the same time ruin them.
This season those results are likely to be more costly or beneficial than usual under the current climate involving the Essendon Football Club.
With the long awaited ASADA report now in the hands of the AFL and the Bombers and the release of the findings imminent, we are set to find out before the finals if Essendon will be found guilty of wrong doing regarding providing their players with banned substances.
If that’s the case, there continues to be speculation that the players themselves will escape sanctions, but surely the club will be severely penalised and rightly so with a huge fine and the loss of premiership points from 2013 being talked about as possible repurcussions.
The Bombers sit fifth at the moment with four rounds to play and have 13 victories.
The top eight actually looks settled if Essendon isn’t stripped of their points with the vastly improved, Port Adelaide in eighth and two victories ahead of Carlton in ninth position.
However, if the Bombers are forced out of the race that means the last spot in the eight is up for grabs and currently the Blues are a game clear of North Melbourne, who have a much better percentage.
West Coast and Brisbane also sit on eight wins, but the Lions have a percentage 37 percent inferior to the Kangaroos, so they are effectively a further two wins adrift of the eight.
Brisbane has managed to run down several opponents in the last quarter and win by narrow margins, while close losses are a very good chance of being the difference between North Melbourne playing footy in September or going on holidays.
They have lost five games by less than a goal and actually led most of those matches by significant margins especially Adelaide in Round 9 when they coughed up a lead of more than five goals to lose with virtually the last kick of the day.
Geelong back in Round 2 when they were in front all day and by as much as 41 points near half time only to lose again on the siren is another example of one that got away.
They also had Brisbane’s measure, but were again swamped in the final term and Carlton beat them by a point, but this time it was North, who were well behind before flying home, only to fall short again.
With such a healthy percentage, a win in one of those would have had the Roos in ninth and more than just a slim possibility of playing finals footy.
However, if the truth be known, North Melbourne probably doesn’t deserve to be there, despite playing better footy for longer than some of those teams already booked for September action.
However, with the Bombers future beyond the home-and-away season for 2013 still in a state of flux, the Kangaroos will be hoping their resolve to withstand another withering comeback by Geelong last week will give them the confidence to keep winning for the rest of the season to stay in the race.
Carlton with nine victories know their destiny is still in their own hands, but haven’t beaten anyone above them this year.
Even though they beat the Roos by the barest of margins, there’s no doubt North over the season is a better team and for the Blues to do what their fans expect of them if they make the finals and that is to be more competitive, they must beat sides in the eight
After the Bulldogs this week, where they will start as warm favourites, they get that chance to prove themselves against the better teams, Richmond, Essendon and Port.
They will probably need to win all three, if Essendon isn’t stripped of all their points. The Blues will need at least two, if the Bombers are and on form not sure Mick Malthouse’s men can achieve that.
West Coast seem to have too many injuries to make it and like Brisbane require too many things out of their control to be in the finals. In short, those teams are mathematical possibilities at best.
Port Adelaide is the one that deserves to be there. Their draw isn’t easy, with games against Geelong away, Gold Coast at home, Fremantle away and the Blues at home at Footy Park to come.
However, they keep winning especially the close ones and with this fanatical self-belief new coach Ken Hinkley has drilled into them, they will be formidable opponents for the remainder of the season and will get the opportunity to be part of finals action for the first time since 2007.
Maybe on last week’s effort, North might have learnt the Port Adelaide way as well, but is it too late?
Radelaide
Guest
I have thought the same thing...and I fear! except for the fact that Essendon will probably miss the finals and we will scrape in.
Radelaide
Guest
John McCarthy's number was 35, Monfries kicked at 1 minute 35, Wingard marked at 35 seconds and kicked from 35 meters out, I like to think of it as divine intervention.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
I think the Swans will rue blowing a 27 point lead to Freo in the final 7 minutes. With games against the Hawks and Cats to come they could find themselves a game behind Freo
Dan of SA
Guest
I will be barracking hard for the Bulldogs, Tigers and Bombers over the next 3 weeks!
Smithy
Guest
Good call, there's def an argument to be made that Freo may rue the most from close losses (and in this case, a draw). And they don't get much closer. Mayne's snap into the post and Johnson's set shot that just fell short both occurred in the final 30 seconds of the game. That said, add another 10 seconds to the game vs. Richmond at Subi in round 5 and the Tiges may have scrambled through a score to draw or win that game. And that's why a win is a win is a win. And it's why North can rue their missed opportunities all they like: they deserve to be where they are on the ladder and to watch the finals from the sidelines.
Charlie
Guest
It is incorrect to say Carlton haven't beaten anyone above them, they beat Port in round 8. I wouldn't rule out Carlton grabbing 8th spot, ahead of Port. After this weekend, the Bllues should be only one game behind Port but with a better percentage. Assuming Carlton lose to the Tigers, and Port beat God Coast, the difference again becomes 2 games. Round 22 becomes interesting, Port play Freo in WA, and will most likely lose. If Carlton beat Essendon, and they have a good recent late-season history against the Bombers, then the difference will again be one game. 8th spot will then come down to the final game; Port v Carlton at AAMI. Blues have won 6 of their last 7 against Port, so it is certainly possible that they will win, and with the better percentage, overtake Port and finish 8th. All of the above is also reliant on North not winning their last 4 games, however I can't see them beating all of Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood. It's possible, but not likely.
Penster
Guest
This year? They haven't won more than 2 games in a row this season. Need to up that average coming from 9th. Hope you got good odds!
ren
Guest
Despite looking to get themselves into a favourable position, Fremantle will be rueing two missed opportunities. They should have beaten Essendon at Subiaco, going down by less than a kick with their last shot hitting the post. And despite a late charge against Sydney the dockers fell short, literally! Had Johnsons shot carried the full distance, or any of the myriads of behinds been converted, Fremantle would have top two sown up with the promise of two home finals to come.
macca
Guest
The way thing are going for you blokes you'll be 5 points down with 10 seconds to play with the ball in your back pocket and someone will get hold of a torp with a big southerly behind it and it will go the lenght of the filed for a goal! Last weekend I think any result that could of gone against the blues did, the Pies belted the bombers, Richmond belted the Hawks, you blokes got up and North upset Geelong.
Steve J
Roar Guru
But for the Essendon close loss and Mayne's missed snaspshot from 10 metres out Fremantle would be sitting 2 points from top spot and percentage off second. AND But for Michael Johnson not being able to kick the ball 50 metres against Sydney or the Freo tall forwards being able to realise they needed to rush the ball through Freo would be sitting equal top but percentage off first. And with their run home they would have the minor premiership all but locked up and two home finals in their back pocket. If only, if only, if only ....... of course you could reverse all this with the close wins they've had through the season ...
Franko
Guest
Haha, you guys must be spitting chips!!!!!!! What a great game, even when we were losing I commented to a mate about what a great match it was. As good a derby as you will find in the AFL, there is a genuine passion there, long may it continue at Adelaide Oval. We really haven't put 4 quarters together for over a month now, it is a bit of a worry. You can sit back and relax this weekend, you guys get WB and we're away at Kardinia park urgh... :( Hopefully the Swans can do the job and Brisbane pull off an upset.
macca
Guest
Poor Crows - What about us poor blues supporters who have had to endure Port not only upsetting the Swans and Collingwood to get ahead fo the blues but then watch them just sneak in against the Saints, Brisbane and the Crows to stay in front!!
Penster
Guest
That was the most amazing finish I've seen all year. Poor Crows now know how North feel every week. Like you I'd given the game to Crows and watch incredulously as they came back in the final 8 minutes. The supporters have had a great year, was on the edge of my seat. Hope St Johns brought extra defibs to the ground!
macca
Guest
Franko - I have been wanting to catch you all week - bloody Port did it to me again, I only turned the showdown on for the last 10 minutes and with about 4 minutes to go I almost turned it over again because I thought the Crows had it but yet again Port manage to kick me in the nuts!!! How that Monfries kick went through I have no idea. Where on earth did Prt Adelaide come across a virgin to sacrifice? I wouldn't mind so much you keeping the blues out of the finals but do you have to sneak home every week!!!
Franko
Guest
The could've, should've and would'ves are fantastic to speculate. The last time Port made the finals (2007) we won 7 games during the season by 3 goals or less. Even the first final we only won by 3 points. History doesn't recall the really close loss, the bounce of the ball, the terrible luck it only remembers the wins and losses and if North, or Carlton for that matter were a better side, they'd have won their close ones. Of course history does recall the 2007 GF, I wish I didn't.
pope paul v11
Guest
Still backing North to be the first team to win from ninth
Macca
Guest
Everyone talks about North having a season a narrow losses and the author here say Norths season is clearly better than the blues but had Yarran kicked a dead set soda in round one or had Henderson kicked longer or Yarran gone Harder aganst the bombers the blues the season would be different. Even some of the "bigger losses" like Geelong, Collingwood (round 2) St Kilda (round 7) and Hawthorn all had the blues very close very late in the game (all except Hawthorn from memory had the blues inside a goal with less than 5 minutes to go). Not making excuses and good sides should win more of those games than they lose but there isn't a lot of differnece between the blues and North.