Spring Carnivals are often shaped in August but very rarely are definitive statements made in winter.
It’s especially the case in the history of the PB Lawrence (1400m, Group 2, weight-for-age), a race whose winner has not gone on to win any of the three spring majors in the last 20 years.
So here are the two most interesting questions for racing fans to answer in the wake of Puissance De Lune’s breathtaking victory in Saturday’s Lawrence: Does Puissance De Lune have a mortgage on both the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) as his odds of $5 for both races suggest? Or is the $5 quote the greatest example of ‘unders’ in the history of Cups betting?
You could argue that Saturday’s renewal of the Lawrence was particularly weak. For a Group 2 weight-for-age race, there was no genuine Group 2 weight-for-age horse in the field, save for Puissance De Lune.
The detractors of Puissance De Lune (which translates to a meaning of ‘power of moon’) will argue that any horse threatening for the Melbourne Cup had to dispose of that field.
Having then seen Puissance De Lune win with such ease, perhaps those same detractors would also argue that Puissance De Lune is too far forward in his preparation. It’s only August and he needs to be peaking in November. After all, no horse has ever done the Lawrence-Melbourne Cup double.
On top of that, Puissance De Lune is a hot favourite to win the best two races in Australia, the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, without ever having met a genuine Group 1 animal on the racetrack.
You can form a decent argument to pot Puissance De Lune. Anyone doing it wouldn’t be enticed by the pre-post odds especially when there’s still nine Saturdays standing between today and the Cox Plate.
But against all the negatives, I’m prepared to believe in Puissance De Lune. Surer than I ever have been, I think he could win the Cox Plate and probably will win the Melbourne Cup.
In fact, I think he’s on-track to be the shortest starting-price favourite in the Melbourne Cup since Redcraze finished second in 1956 at odds of 7-4 ($2.75).
If Puissance De Lune arrives at Flemington an undefeated horse this campaign, remembering that he’s likely to be favourably handicapped with 54 or 55kgs, he’ll be so short odds of $5 will look like 50-1.
On Sunday morning, I sat down and re-watched every Australian start Puissance De Lune has had since arriving from France. I concluded that only three things can beat Puissance De Lune in a Melbourne Cup: an injury; bad luck during the race or failure to run-out the 3200m.
Puissance De Lune hasn’t run a bad race in Australia. I think the big grey has one of the best engines in the country. He always closes off powerfully.
The scary thing is, regardless of whether he’s been ridden close to the speed or back near last, without fail he lengthens beautifully in the straight. Nine times out of ten, he’s the strongest finisher in the race.
For a horse that has only competed in handicap races before Saturday, Puissance De Lune should make light work of the transition to weight-for-age racing. And, as a feat, that shouldn’t be underestimated.
Handicappers don’t often make the weight-for-age cut, especially at carnival time. Those horses are either beaten by the rise in standard or rise in weight they have to carry.
But not Puissance De Lune. He is simply too classy. And it showed on Saturday, when at his weight-for-age debut, he make easy work of his rivals and the 59kgs he was allotted.
It will get harder as the opposition gets better but if Puissance De Lune doesn’t win the Cox Plate, I don’t think it will be because he isn’t up to weight-for-age racing.
So as a weight-for-age horse, how good does Puissance De Lune look with 54 or 55kgs in the Melbourne Cup? He looks a weighted certainty.
Tactically Puissance De Lune is bombproof. Because if there’s genuine speed in a race, Puissance De Lune can be positioned in midfield or worse, yet he can also lead or be cushioned behind the speed without it affecting his finishing spurt.
Having won the Queen Elizabeth (2600m, Group 3, handicap) so impressively from the speed last spring, one can assume Puissance De Lune can stay a decent trip.
But if Glen Boss was worried about the grey’s ability to run-out the Melbourne Cup’s 3200m journey, he could easily settle the grey in midfield in an attempt to help Puissance De Lune finish the race off.
Who knows if Puissance De Lune has a 3200m issue. But if he does, his versatility gives him every chance to overcome it.
Is there any weakness in Puissance De Lune’s game?
The only thing I can put my finger on is his big size which has seen him get into trouble twice in his career when positioned next to the inside rail.
Puissance De Lune was beaten narrowly at Warrnambool as a $1.20 favourite last spring because he was put off-balance on the home turn when jockey Brad Rawiller attempted to shove the grey out of a pocket.
And in the Blamey (1600m, Group 2, set weights and penalties), this autumn, Puissance De Lune was denied outright victory, having to settle for a dead-heat, because he only saw daylight 200m from the finish.
Such is his considerable size Puissance De Lune isn’t very agile. Maybe he’d be vulnerable around the tight Moonee Valley circuit if he drew an inside marble in a Cox Plate. Maybe I’m plucking at straws.
In a Cox Plate it’s more likely Puissance De Lune encounters trouble in the form of the undefeated Atlantic Jewel or her stablemate Super Cool. Like Puissance De Lune, they go in search of champion status this spring.
Australian racing may be weak at the top but that just means the throne is there for the taking. There is no shortage of potential suitors. And perhaps Puissance De Lune is the best placed of all them.
The fact that plenty will disagree with that last statement is particularly exciting.
There is no shortage of interest in the 2013 spring. Puissance De Lune is polarising Melbourne Cup opinion in August. It’s probably unprecedented.
More so, it’s fantastic for racing. We are at the dawn of a great spring.
deliciousfudge
Guest
Regarding IAD v Super Cool, I would wait and see. At the Valley IAD wasn't wearing blinkers, and with them on now he appears to quicken much better. At Flemington he was ridden so far back he could have taken part in the previous race but still made up plenty of ground at the end.
Mal
Guest
Great thread the Memsie looks like an awesome race.
kv joef
Guest
Sorry Andrew ... it is as clear as mud. v.tied last night. when i say 'weight' i'm actually talking about ranking/rating as if i'm seeing every horse on one scale. i've also made a reference to GC discounting - this is not to infer our horse population is better/worse than the WTR opinion but it could be taken that way :). Some would say it is done to ease the burden of allotting actual weights in AU G1 handicaps and would apply across the board which i think is the point you are making. some horse must get a minimum top-weight of 58Kgs - that's the rules, even if they have to raise the Cup limit of 49kgs. So far i haven't heard of a visitor that will spread the allotted weights meaning that GC again intends a 58kgs weight of around 118 - 121pts. He needs to justify his opinion as all the 'big' stables have specialist raters/handicappers and if a horse they know gets an advantaged weight, the Euro-stables would say "what's the point?. "X" has been pitched-forked into the race" and the Cup would quickly lose it's lustre. Acceptably, GC has been more right than the average bear and is greatly respected throughout the world. I'm sure the discussion will resume in 3 weeks :).
kv joef
Guest
PS i was incorrect about the low 2011 St. Leger ranking as Masked Marvel also rated 121 in 2011 so of coarse the rating would not have been on 2012 chart but MM has since slipped the scale to 111. Sorry getting too sloppy. :(
kv joef
Guest
Just been going through the Travers Stks field and a couple of others at Saratoga :). Absolutely agree about LW and LF. Been a fan of LW judgement since he brought Myocard unstruck in the Sydney Cup so long ago. I think it was Major Bid (Prebble as a kid)? I agree, they are v.good and would have considered much. Since LW brought the winner Masked Marvel, Seville and Sea Moon out of the 2011 English St. Leger, officially rating a v.ordinary race, maybe LW's rating advisors thought better of it. That's why i was so pleased you pointed me to podcast as there is no doubt GC is going to take him on. Saying things like 'two ways to look at a handicap' and 'their is a clear advantage to Green Moon' ... i took that to be a kilo or so etc What attracted LW to this race? who knows the mind of the clever ones. Found the vid on youtube and had a look ... they did go very quick early, some might even say a 'cup pace' and the field was handy and LW's horses did finish off with SM coming from last and very stiff 3rd. Anyway, SM was rated in the FINAL WTR 2012 rankings on 123 (www.ifhaonline.org/resources/2012Rankings/2012_WorldRankings.asp) and 121 in the FINAL 2011 WTR. the rankings is supplied to them by the BHA and as you mentioned SM hasn't raced this year so that mark should hold. GREEN MOON is on the same final 2012 WTR chart rated 118 - 5pts diff in favour of GM. GC held GM locally at 116 from spring (MC) thru autumn(AC) so discounting his WTR mark by 2 pts 5 pts at G1 level is about 2.5 kgs by the current RBH (vicracing hcp) template. On the same template you will note a 2.5kg diff between G1 and G2 level. This is probably sounding as clear as mud but anyway ... what GC is saying is that over a distance 2700m+ (hcp term "E" for Endurance category) SM will be a 3+kg inferior to his performances at 2100-2700m or "L" category meaning Long Distance. Interesting is SM's 123 is an "L" but no "E" is seen like Green Moon. But English St.Leger is an "E" performance. so the race-rating returned must fall officially under the WTR cutoff 115 otherwise it would have been noted on the final 2012 chart. All confirmed performances are noted. I am not saying who is right or wrong but i'm having a giggle at the thong-slapping disagreement between GC, LW, BHA and WTR. Someone is going to be right in 10 weeks :). Bottomline is GC is saying the "lighter" weight is fair and he needs that to be competitive and i'm sure LW team are smiling. if he wins clearly +1.5 lens LW/BHA/WTR are right if he is beaten or a tight win, GC is right ... luv this game :)
Andrew
Guest
kv joef. as i understand it the world ranking website just ranks the peak individual run of a horse. where as a rating (ie, like in victoria) it is average/current level. as such, sea moon has a high peak, but he is yet to reach a high level. ie, a perfect horse to enter into a hcp race, as one would expect shortly, he will confirm this high rating, with more individually high rating runs, and thus improve his 'rating', up to match with his current peak, and go up in the hcp. precisely why lllyod would target a horse of this ilk, not let him run here unitl after the hcp's come out in first week of sept, and the run him exclusively in penalty free races in the lead up. llyod is no mug and him and lee freedman are masterminding this. bart aside, these two chaps have the best record in the melb cup in modern era (ie, post vintage crop) by a mile.
Nugget
Guest
Thanks for that explanation kv joef. I was also unfamiliar with it. I love the well informed discussions on this website.
kv joef
Guest
More or less JN but from different viewpoints. Wrld Thoroughbred Rankings are the Academy Awards (range 115+pts) - a jurisdiction h'cpr submits an estimate of a local horse that is ok'd or modified by the int.Hcp panel. As you suggest, probably CDA's ranking is currently in dispute. anyway, the local h'cpr has to 'prove' his rating to the panel before acceptance. OTR's are developed locally by the jurisdiction's official h'cpr for their own horse population. BUT they all use the same calculation methodology, tweeking occasionally and using the WTRankings as a starting reference ... and they often informally chat with each other. Most have their own jurisdiction h'cp policy. Individual modifications happen - EG with each new season in Hong Kong they discount the ratings 3 - 9 points for all horses. This allows a horse to work their way back to their 'natural' level thru the season or 'slide the scale'. In AU, recently NSW and VIC have different policies for imported horses first start - VIC discount their OS mark where NSW takes the OS rating. HK 'class' imported horses with ref to their OS mark and start them off there. Won't even worry about the diff Nthrn/Sthrn Hemisphere WFA scale giving age improvement to be added to their 2/3 yr-old mark or the discount given to females. OTR's are local and those rubber-stamped at 115+ (usually int.G3 winning standard) end up on the World Rankings. Bottomline, be aware of local policies and often better to view the local assessments (OTR) in their jurisdiction as many are not on the international scale. Sorry for long-wind'ness JN, as i'm sure you are aware of the above but maybe some readers are not.
johnny nevin is a legend
Roar Pro
Ok I know what you mean now, the world thoroughbred rankings. CDA could only come 2nd on his last start in a French Group 3, I don't think he retains his previous ability.
kv joef
Guest
just went and checked ifha and Novellist has been bumped to 128, 3rd best horse in the world - so well done JN. the OR still had him at 119 into the Ascot race. CDA has gone off the rankings altogether? Is he finished?
kv joef
Guest
Sorry JN the OTR is the Official Thoroughbred Rating (OTR). Basically these are the 'ratings' that the various racing jurisdiction handicappers agree on race performance level that enable horses to be internationally compared. Basically, it seems the UK'cappers have accessed Sea Moon against St. Nic's Abbey, his 3.5L defeat of Dunaden, his 8L defeat of Al Kazeem. Novellist has only one Int. G1 and UK'capper is suggesting that the form might be a bit doggy as he left Cirrus Des Aigles on his normal mark of 131. They call Novellist's rating unconfirmed much like Sea Moon's 124 being defeated by Danedream. Even though the UK'capper still has him on 123 today. you will find a monthly UK updates at British Horseracing Authority - www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/media/ratings.asp ... the U.S call theirs the Experimental Handicap - www.jockeyclub.com/information.asp (down the page a little) also every 6 months the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities - www.ifhaonline.org/home.asp release the best horses ratings. For the casual user who wants up-to-date OTR ratings comparisons, the racingpost.com provides them by searching the horsename in the top-right. they use 'OR' as the OTR. The other 2 ratings they provide are theirs. OZ ratings are found at RISA. There is a local variant and that is what i'm discussing with andrew but you will find that the scale differences hold. GC by downgrading SMoon is telling me he doesn't think he will stay 3200m quoting Masked Marvel's defeat of SM in that podcast and MM currently has a confirmed rating of 111. I have my own means of assessment but the OTR's are quite good.
johnny nevin is a legend
Roar Pro
Kv joef, excuse my ignorance but what rating/handicap system is OTR? How does Novellist rate 4 pounds below Sea Moon, a horse yet to win a G1.
kv joef
Guest
Apologies Andrew, It just makes me curious who is going to get the minimum 57kgs top-weight? Is there still a minimum top-weight? Carpenter said that he rated Green Moon above Sea Moon on G1 performances. He also suggested that the same weight given to those two in the Sydney Cup (59kgs) was plausible. I didn't hear him mention 55.5kgs and then went on to talk about Dandino at around 54.5kgs. It seems he is willing to dismiss SM beaten performance against Dandream (124). They seem to prefer his previous confirmed rating of 121 and then discount the diff between G1 and G2, usually 4 pts that will bring him back to 117. Really interesting Have a lot of time for GC.
andrew
Guest
kv joef. greg carpenter has been on radio saying this is what weight he will get. go to the sport 927 website and listen to the podcast. he was asked about just again this morning about 20mins again and said exactly the same thing. surely, when the man who actually does the hcp's says something, im entitled to accept this information as being 'from the horses mouth'. I agree with you he is the best we have seen from Europe, and with 55kgs, its all the more reason to back him heavy.
kv joef
Guest
55kg - i'd be surprised? Don't know how you got that figure? Who would be the benchmark? As mentioned Sea Moon's OTR is 123. last year Dunaden off an OTR of 119 carried 59 kgs / Americain off 117 carried 57kgs. Jakkalberry (55.5 kgs last year OTR 113). he has improved to a OTR of 117 along with Mount Athos. Dandino had an OTR 113 before Arlington win and i wouldn't expect it to rise that much. Red Cadeaux has slipped back to a current OTR 115. Generally speaking WFA racing will see the 'stakes' OTR increase up to 5pts for set weight racing but that should not be confused with the OTR. I was being generous with Sea Moon and giving a 1.5kg off WFA as he is only a G2 winner even though his OTR of 123 is G1 and currently SEA MOON is rated on the same level as St Nicholas Abbey; Mukhadram - 3 pts below Nathaniel; 1 pt below Al Kazeem; Farhh; Snow Fairy and should mentioned that currently he is rated 4 pts better then Novellist (119). I think he is the best we've had from Europe and will be weighted accordingly.
Cameron Rose
Expert
If PDL is as clean-winded as he appears, I'd have no problem with Turnbull, three weeks into the Cox, and then straight to the Cup. The one thing we know about Bossy is that he can handle the pressure of the Melbourne Cup. His three winning rides on Makybe Diva were something else, but nothing tops the first one for me. I doubt any rider has ridden under more pressure than what he did in her third though.
Jason Cave
Guest
I would suggest that PDL run in the Mackinnon, which could be a perfect Cup lead-up run, rather than go at the WS Cox Plate. In all my years watching the Emirates Melbourne Cup, I don't know of any other horse who would be a red-hot favourite just a few months out from the Cup. And just how much pressure Glen Boss will be under come Cup Day, if PDL is in the big race, especially seeing one year ago after PDL won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Emirates Stakes Day, Boss said, "I've just ridden the 2013 Melbourne Cup winner."
Andrew
Guest
firstly, sea moon will get 55kgs on his current hcp rating, not 58kgs. $5 is silly unders. i think we all agree on this for PDL. so you think won a memsie, underwood, yalumba, cox, mc kinnon and went around $3.80. its nigh on impossible to start shorter than $4 in a hcp race with 24 runners with the field assembled from all over the world, no matter how dominant for your form is. lets elope has similar picket fence to her name and was about the same price in 1991. PDL will stay short in the market for now, due to bookies committments with doubles and the like, but rest assured come race day, the on-course bookies will have to compete with the tote down to about 115%, and PDL cannot be shorter than $4. serene star ran well against her patter with blinkers on. frustrating as she had been getting in on-pace dominated races, and if they left the blinkers off, she would have been in the right spot for that race. that said, she has has been up all winter and cant get fitter and competition only gets stronger. with her high rating, she gets lots of weight in mares only races and is hard to place. the win of dandino only further franks the form for sea moon, on top of him caning fiorente, jackalberry (2nd and 3rd from 2012 cup) and dunaden and red cadeaux (the 2011 cup quinella). if this isnt good form, i dont know what is.
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Chris, sorry mate but being a Kiwi punter, I'd never back a horse @ 5-1 in a unique race like the Melbourne Cup ............ too many variables against him @ those skinny odds :)
Alfred Chan
Expert
Most horses which start in the PB Lawrence race every second week until their cooked by Puissance De Lune isn't going to do that. He's going straight back to the beach and he's going to take four weeks off. He'll then likely be back for the Chin Nam and be very fresh. It will almost be like he's running first up again! In the pre-race interview, Darren Weir said the PB was never about winning the race. It was about finding some fitness since he had one raced once in the past nine months. I'll bet he instructed Bossy not to use the whip. +1 to what Cam Rose said. $6 is still too short this far out from the Cup.