Previews: Warwick and McKenzie Stakes

The Warwick Stakes, a Group 2 over 1400m at Warwick Farm, is the feature race of the weekend, and one suspects it will carry more weight as a reference for races down the track rather than in the immediate aftermath.

Some of the greats of the Sydney turf have taken this out on the way to Spring glory, including the mighty Kingston Town before all three of his Cox Plates. The likes of Super Impose, Filante and Lohnro were all multiple winners, while Sunline, Defier, Private Steer and Racing to Win are other notables to have saluted in recent times.

There aren’t any horses in tomorrow’s field approaching the calibre of those, but there are still some well-credentialed gallopers among them. Eleven of the fourteen starters are resuming from a spell, with almost all of these to be at their best at a mile and a quarter or longer. The strength of this race will be much clearer in three months’ time.

Rain Affair is the clear-cut favourite and obvious top pick as the only genuine sprinter in the field. Punters get can around about even money on his chances, and many will be lining up to take it.

Some might look at his 1400m record (4:1-2-0) and get a little nervous about taking the skinnies, but the win was by an easy couple of lengths in a similar field to this, and the two seconds were in consecutive All Aged Stakes, and there are no All Too Hard’s or Atlantic Jewel’s here.

He should lead and win as he likes with plenty of time to get across from his wide gate, and while the margin may not be as great as his Missile Stakes win first up, it should still be comfortable enough to not give supporters a moment’s pause.

Streama is arguably the most honest sprinter/miler in the country, whether in mares or open company. Eight times she’s finished in the top five of a Group 1 race, winning a couple in her three year old season.

With the capacity to go forward or back, she’s a versatile animal that can keep the favourite honest, but the extra run under Rain Affair’s belt and lack of pressure in the race should prove to be the decisive factors.

Toydini has a wrap on him after a couple of demolition jobs against his fellow three year olds in the Autumn, but his opposition on those occasions was second or third tier.

Connections have their eyes on the Epsom Handicap as his main target, with a possible trip to Moonee Valley in October if successful.

He’s expected to run well, and will be coming home hard, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to reel in the leader. A pleasing second or third place finish will be enough to suggest he’s on track.

Any of Chris Waller’s six resuming runners could spring a surprise and run a race, although you’d be more confident of each of them if this was being run over 1600m. Most have residual fitness on their side from the Queensland winter carnival, which will be a positive.

Beaten Up, somewhat surprisingly, is in the top ten in betting for the Cox Plate, so will want to be beating the large majority of this field home to justify the reasonably lofty expectations.

Metal Bender has been pieced together for another campaign, and will hopefully have an impact. If it wasn’t for the fact he hasn’t raced for over 16 months, you’d think he could be right in this. Waller is a marvel with these warhorses though, and a big run won’t shock.

Selections
1.Rain Affair 2.Streama 3.Toydini 4.Metal Bender

The Moonee Valley card isn’t the most inspiring as the gap filler between the P.B Lawrence and Memsie Stakes days at Caulfield, but there is still an important three year old sprint that is a must watch.

Eight of the nine runners engaged in the McKenzie Stakes are on the Caulfield Guineas trail, with half of those also nominated for the Cox Plate.

The New Zealand colt Cauthen is currently second favourite for the Guineas after posting an eight length maiden win at home, and following it up with one for the “best thing beaten you’ve ever seen” file behind Clevadude three weeks ago here.

Many will be hoping for him to avoid the bad luck that plagued him on his Australian debut, to see what turn of foot he can produce with an unfettered run.

Clevadude could be another Starspangledbanner, a horse that kept leading and winning all the way to the Guineas, despite the pundits assuming that every previous run was as far he wanted it. Rick Hore-Lacy seems to produce a good horse every year, and his wraps on this one are high.

Long John is an exciting prospect well in Guineas markets, unbeaten after three starts, with the last of those being a Stakes win by almost four lengths. Charles in Charge is also yet to taste defeat, but may just lack a length or two on these based on exposed form.

Pyrrolic, under Mick Kent, has only had one start for a commanding victory over the handy Boer, and could be worth specking for the Guineas at a nice price lest he produce a big first up run.

The beauty of early three year old races is that we don’t know who has improved out of sight, and any of the aforementioned three could have an impact tomorrow.

Shamus Award probably only ranks behind Fast ‘n’ Rocking as the best maiden running around, and there’s been support for him to claim his first victory, $8.50 into $7 with Sportsbet. He looks a class horse in the making.

It’s only early in the season, but this already looks a reasonably deep race, and it would be a surprise if several future winners don’t come out of it.

Selections
1.Cauthen (under the odds) 2.Pyrrolic 3.Shamus Award 4.Long John