Why Atlantic Jewel is no lock for the Cox Plate

Forget the gay marriage debate. If human-equine marriage were acknowledged, Atlantic Jewel would be inundated with marriage proposals.

That’s how loved this horse is. But when we love, objectivity eludes us and we get caught up in hype and emotions.

A breathtaking display on the weekend from racing’s darling has dropped jaws, dominated headline, plunged markets and aroused an industry.

However, we should keep ‘the lid’ on because mountains still stand between her and the Cox Plate.

Those who saw the Memsie Stakes on the weekend will never forget the race, the significance and the sheer determination of Atlantic Jewel to return from a career threatening tendon injury. The way she left such a highly credentialed field in her wake was downright spectacular.

It should have come as no surprise that she immediately firmed in Cox Plate betting from $7 into $3 after her performance.

The biggest query hanging over Atlantic Jewel’s head was whether she had fully recovered from her injury. So often we see horses fail to and this led her to drift out to $2.50 on the tote.

In beautiful fashion, she dispelled her doubters as she brained seven other Group 1 winners. It is unlikely we will ever see those odds available for her. Thus $3 for her to win the Cox Plate has enticed many punters because she may start odds-on if she lines up in the final field of 14.

The most well known obstacle in the way of Atlantic Jewel is spring’s other headline horse, Puissance De Lune. Two weeks ago, we could not stop singing the praises of the Melbourne Cup favourite who is expected to line up in the Cox Plate also.

Puissance De Lune ran in the Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes a fortnight ago. The race was run under the exact same weight and distance conditions as the Memsie Stakes. The pace of both races was even dictated by the same horse, Ajeeb.

Puissance De Lune ran the 1400m in 1:24.26 while Atlantic Jewel ran 1:24.43. The miniscule difference in times between the two is so small that it is irrelevant. It suggests there is not much between these two horses. It certainly is not significant enough to say Atlantic Jewel will comfortably beat Puissance De Lune.

The Cox Plate is run over 2040m and it is a distance which will test Atlantic Jewel when you look at her sire. Fastnet Rock is not a recognised sire of 2000m horses with most of his progeny restricted to sprint distances.

Although Atlantic Jewel is out of a Zabeel mare, Regard, she is relatively untested at 2000m because we can discount her run in the Wakeful Stakes since the horses she beat have done nothing since.

In the Wakeful, she beat Rahveel and Dowager Queen. Rahveel has not won in two years and now races in Tasmania – not exactly a state known for high quality racing. Dowager Queen has also not won in two years and is currently running around in benchmark grade.

Regardless of how good a horse is, the uniqueness of Moonee Valley is always a concern for horses, especially those whose successes have come mostly at wide courses with long straights.

Atlantic Jewel has raced at Moonee Valley just once and it was in her second career start and against her age group. She won the race but it was by under a length and is still the smallest winning margin of her career.

Due to the shape at Moonee Valley, horses which take time to wind up in the straight can struggle. With the sharp turn, there also is not very much open space unless racing four or five wide.

In his post-race interview, Michael Rodd said, “When she’s out in the open, she just relaxes. She puts her head down and really travels.”

At Moonee Valley she will not have the same open space and clear running room to wind up as she does at Caulfield or Flemington. Until we see her win at Moonee Valley next weekend with the same dominance she did at Caulfield, the track remains a concern.

If Atlantic Jewel starts in the Cox Plate, it would take a bold bookmaker not to price her as the favourite and bookies take zero chances these days. But in the past 20 years, the Cox Plate has not been a great race for favourites.

In those 20 years, only five of the favourites have won the Cox Plate. This is an alarming statistic because favourites should certainly win more than 25 per cent of the time under the weight-for-age scale.

Those five favourites to win were: So You Think (2010), Makybe Diva (2005), Northerly (2002), Sunline (2000) and Might And Power (1998).

The biggest unknown in most years is the three years olds. The Cox Plate will be the first time classy three year olds step out of their age group and therefore have no conclusive form lines.

We still have no idea how good Drago or Prince Harada are but they are both nominated for the Cox Plate and are gathering momentum behind them. If they go on to win the Spring Champion Stakes or Caulfield Guineas, any three year old must be a chance of winning the Cox Plate considering the featherweights which they are allotted.

Horse racing is synonymous with heartbreak with so many of our thoroughbred darlings breaking hearts (and wallets) when they are undone and proven mortal. This happens because of the hype we build and we bring the disappointment upon ourselves.

We only need to look as far as Mark Kavanagh who downplayed Atlantic Jewel’s chances in his pre-race interview on Saturday. Even in his post-race interview, he kept his placidity for the cameras while exploding in joy under his skin.

Since Maldivian’s ill-fated mishap in the 2007 Caulfield Cup when he was the raging favourite, Kavanagh has learned that heartbreak is only ever a slip of the hoof away.

Beware the hype and keep your emotions in check, for now.