If fly-half Morne Steyn has the ball in his hands too often on Saturday night, the Boks will beat the Wallabies at Suncorp. But starving him is easier said than done.
The Super Rugby stats for this season are an eye-opener to how devastating Steyn can be, when given the chance.
Most points – 204, tops the list.
Most conversions – 32, tops the list as well.
Most penalty goals – 57, second to Christian Lealiifano’s 58.
Most kicks – 204, tops.
And most kick metres – 8332, the length of the straight more than Beauden Barrett’s 5304, Jesse Mogg’s 5208, and Quade Cooper’s 4560.
Steyn is a master at turning sides around with that big boot, and when they get frustrated, he bangs over the penalty.
So Wallaby open-sider Michael Hooper’s number one priority all night will be to keep the champion Bok quiet – again, easier said than done, especially as Hooper was one of the main offenders in conceding penalties (21), and missing tackles (30), during the Super season.
So too were Lealiifano, missing 28 tackles, and Quade Cooper, 26.
So where will Steyn direct his attack if he’s given room to move? Right through the midfield, with skipper Jean de Villiers set for a picnic, unless Wallaby coach Ewen McKenzie has plugged those weaknesses.
This promises to be a fascinating version of rugby chess at pace.
The key will be how McKenzie has lifted a side that has been beaten four times in their last five outings,
Losing can become just a habit, just like winning,
Wallabies, like any other sportsmen, are creatures of habit,
And that’s where McKenzie has his hands full, limiting the bad habits of his squad, and promoting their strengths.
Ben Mowen is a good example.
The backrower topped the lineout wins in the Super tournament with 91, but was well up conceding penalties, with 24.
Which brings in the danger of Morne Steyn again.
The Wallaby backrow are capable of giving Steyn penalty potting practice: Mowen conceded 24 Super penalties, Hooper 21, and Scott Fardy 16 – all three of them among the worst offenders in 2013.
Turnovers – Cooper and Stephen Moore top the list with 43 each.
These are serious numbers, and negatives.
But the Wallaby positives are there for the taking: quick ball, accurate passing, safe handling, and first-time tackling, and Morne Steyn will be blotted right out of the picture.
Again, easier said than done, but there have been enough positional changes made to beat the Boks.
Best examples?
Israel Folau made 132 runs in Super Rugby from full-back, and he’s back there at long last.
He also made nine line breaks, and 33 off-loads, second only to Quade Cooper.
Stats can be unforgiving, but they are always a leveler.
The Wallabies can win on Saturday, if they do the simple things right, the basics.
And starve Morne Steyn of the ball.
IvanN
Guest
I thought when he fought that blind teenager in a boxing match that he proved his toughness? Boys, sad to say this but the Wallabies seem more interested in their six packs and instragram pictures than playing the game.
chann wee
Guest
one for fans of running rugby. maybe you was there :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BU5Yk9ug5W8
No mate, he hasn't. When you go back to his appointment, he could have searched and appointed the best defensive coach in SA, he could have appointed the best attacking coach in SA, same with every other specialist. He chose to select his old Bulls crew. So he went for men he feels he can "trust", that just suggests to me he has appointed "yes men" He his now going into his 18th test, and forget about the results for a moment. The teams we beat, we were supposed to beat, but against New Zealand he has shown nothing. Also in 17 tests he still has not gotten the forwards to perform consistently and they still have not learnt how to adapt to the manner in which referees interpret the breakdown. How do you dominate the breakdown one weekend, simply to be out thought and outplayed the next? Again with his selections he choses to go with the "familiar" he isn't interested in experimenting with new players. Lambie got a chance in November last year as Steyn was not only playing badly, but had a kicking percentage of 50%, so only then did Meyer decide to drop him. Pressure is on in Australasia, what does he do, go back to the familiar with Zane Kirchner. Halfback, we have Chad Mcleod, Piet v Zyl, Sarel Pretorius, Jaco Reinach, all young promising players and what does he do? sticks with Pienaar and now du Preez. So he has a safety blanket in the Bulls, you can understand you surround yourself with players you know, but lets be honest, when last did he coach these familiar players? 2007. also, we had the opportunity to test young players when Italy, Scotland and Samoa visited us in june, and still he didn't. Then as far as the game plan is concerned, sure he selected Willie le roux, but did he have any choice, JP Pietersen is injured, so he needs the best of the inexperienced and went with Willie who is the best. Was it not for Willie le roux, we would still be totally predictable in attack.
Bruticus
Roar Pro
What is your assessment of Heyneke Meyer BB? Has he ticked all the boxes for you or is he still to prove himself? If you had the choice, who would you have as the Boks coach?
atlas
Guest
hilarious other players tackled Rene Ranger in every Super game, and continue to do so in ITM Cup where he captains Northland Quade does one and it's headline news!!
I doubt he did any coaching at all, but by giving the players the power to decide what the approach will be is a very dangerous thing. They have played to Jake White's style for years by the time the Lions tour was over, when the laws changed, they were too internally focused to see what they did wrong. a good coach would have been able to assess the external threats and made adjustments the players wouldn't have seen because of their introspective look at what they were doing. so yeah they knew THEIR game pretty well, but if you run a marketing company, and refuse to acknowledge that the internet now is a better media to advertise than simply just radio and tv, you will quickly find out your inability to adapt and look outside for inspiration will put you behind your competitors. But then as Regan Hoskins implied when PDV was appointed. "He isn't there for rugby reasons only." That was an injustice to PDV and undermined any authority or respect he would have had as a knowledgeable coach.
Dsat24
Guest
did he actually do any coaching in the latter part? Seems to me like he was a figurehead. Admittedly what can you coach Matfield, Bakkies, Burger, du Preez, Fourie, JDV, Habana and Smit? I think they knew the game pretty well :)
Uncle Oswald
Guest
Mate, that's not a tackle. It's a bump.
Jerry
Guest
He's obviously not a great defender but what that clip does show is that it's not cause of a lack of physical ability or being shy of contact. He simply has bad judgement and often technique - too often he goes for the ball looking to strip/tie it up rather than hitting the ball carrier. He also sometimes seems to be unsure with his footwork which means he gets stepped.
Roland Chan
Roar Rookie
If that's the beat he can do, he isn't a great defender. You'll also note that he didn't actually tackle ranger, he just knocked him over.
Sherry
Guest
Even with Horwill in the Boks would have taken it. Now it's that's much easier for them as long as Etzebeth isn't ruled out (flu). Two vastly different players. Etzebeth wins every lineout ball tossed his way and steals too but doesn't run the ball much. Horwill, on the other hand, runs it almost as much as Moore but is far more effective getting over the GL. We're gonna miss him on Saturday. Simmons and Douglas is not the world's greatest combo. And McCalman showed several times in seasons past that he's not test standard. Boks by 12.
Hi mr.ester, Yes I think it was on one of Elisha Pearce's articles. He isn't my favourite player, but he is definitely Meyer's first choice. I just get a bit tired of always hearing SA plays the kicking game when it is evident every team kicks in one way or the other. I suppose it is positive in one sense though, our team is being categorised and underestimated.
ms.esther
Guest
BILTONGBEK - I recall a post on this forum some time back which opined that Morne was the most valuable player on any of the major teams due to his sky high punts, his long raking punts, and his penalties. That is, of more value to his team that Carter is to his or Genia is to his and so on. The roof fell in. Not one responder agreed. Being Aussies they felt that anybody who stands deep and doesn't run the ball is lousy. But Morne does run the ball now and then, specially in the Zone, and he does distribute and very well too. It's no wonder he's the first Bok picked every time.
Just to prove Steyn is not the only flyhalf that kicks. 2012 Rugby Championship Steyn 38 kicks in 4 matches - 9.5 kicks per match Carter 24 kicks in 4 matches - 6 kicks per match Beale 19 kicks in 2 matches - 9.5 kicks par match Cooper 31 kicks in 3 matches - 10.3 kicks per match
Hopperdoggy
Guest
I'm not sure i understand your reasoning Lordy. You say to win the Wobblies must keep the ball out of Steynes' hands, but all your stats to back it up are about what he does with his feet...penalties, conversions and kick meters. I'm not sure what any team can do to prevent someone from kicking if he really wants to?
Mike
Guest
"So starve all you want Steyn is going to kick most of the possession away he is getting." That's what I am expecting also. I hope Wallabies are ready for that sort of game.
Chivas
Guest
One or two tackles a year where he has ample time to line up does not make him a defender. Now kindly shut yours.
saffa
Guest
I think you will find hooper will go OK. We rate him highly I found this link only a few minutes ago. www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjsYc4tn-y8
Chan Wee
Guest
ditto u off-load in the tackle and pass in normal play. the issue i have seen when cooper was playing for WB is that when he off-loads the next runner is also cut off by the defence. the thing with SBW , who actually got everyone talking about off loads , is that he is such a big unit and needs at least 2 guys (or more) to stop. thus the next runner has some space to get the ball. cooper on the other hand does not demand such attention. maybe i am wrong but remember a situ when nonu just grabbed the ball from kuidrani the moment he got the off-load from cooper. meaning nonu was already in kuridrani's face. meaning it was a hospital pass , had nonu one for man and not ball. the steyn kicking meters need to be considered in context of his home ground LOFTUS; u need to add 5m to every kick at sea level to compare kicking at the bull ring.:) interesting that this article too backs up the one by Mr. Allen about Hooper. on the park he seems to be the most active,but stats say a different thing :)
Rassie
Roar Rookie
Em hello guys SA won the Tri Nations in 2009 with only 43 percent possession and avg around 43 passes a game. SA game plan is not possession its territory. So starve all you want Steyn is going to kick most of the possession away he is getting. Australia mmust make sure they do not make mistakes in their side of the half cause that is what SA will be relying on.