The Wallabies and Springboks face off this week, and having analysed the two matches that the Springboks have played against the Pumas it will be a tough task for the Wallabies to record their first win in the series.
Here are four areas where I see threats and opportunities for the Wallabies.
Big ball running forwards
The Springboks base their game on big, ball-running forwards establishing a platform. Particularly Duane Vermuelen, who often hits the line with a second player running very close behind to help drive him through the defensive line.
Vermuelen’s individual metres carried in the first two matches against the Pumas were not far behind the combined metreage of all other Springbok forwards. He’s averaging 7.56 metres per carry, which is significantly ahead of any other forward in the series.
I’ve also been impressed with the mobility of some of these big Springboks. They get around the field very well, start their run from deep and hit the line at pace so will provide a real threat for the Wallabies.
Umbrella defence
The Springboks have been very aggressive with their defence out wide, using an umbrella system with Jean de Villiers leading the way up on the outside in the role of the defensive end.
This system has the potential to shut down any attempt by a team to play wide, but if the defence gets it slightly wrong there are opportunities to get outside the defensive end.
The two most effective ways to beat this defensive system are to kick in behind the defensive end who has rushed forward, or use a decoy runner to isolate the defensive end and play out the back behind the decoy.
If you’re going to use the kick as an option, you need to keep the kick fairly low so there’s not too much hang time which gives the defence time to adjust. I expect we’ll see Quade Cooper kicking for Israel Folau to get in behind the line.
If you’re going to use a decoy play, the pass behind the decoy has to be fairly close to the line.
Otherwise, the defence will have time to recognise the decoy and slide across to defend the wider play out the back. Cooper’s pass will suit this sort of attacking option.
One thing that never works against an umbrella defence is to just keep passing the ball laterally trying to get outside the defensive end, even if it’s a long pass. It just makes it far too easy for the defence to make an adjustment and herd the attack over the sideline.
Lineout drive
It’s no secret that the Springboks like to drive the ball from the lineout and we’ll see plenty of it from anywhere in the Wallabies half.
Their preferred option is to drive on a jumper in either position two or three in the lineout, but their most dangerous change-up is the drive from the back pod of the lineout.
They use this option two or three times in each match once teams start to focus on the drive from position two or three.
The Wallabies need to either sack the jumper as they land or drive the maul sideways early, because once the maul is set it’s very hard to stop.
The Springboks are very good with their transfer of the ball before the sack, so I think the Wallabies need to focus on driving the maul sideways as it’s being set.
Lineout defence
Eben Etzebeth is a real threat in the Springbok’s lineout defence. He gets up into the air incredibly quickly and is very flexible in the air, so the Wallabies will need to throw away from him or design their plays to tie him up defending a fake jumper.
The Springboks have been using a lot of four man lineouts with Etzebeth at the front, and regardless of whether he’s marked they throw to him because of his speed into the air.
It’s noticeable that the Springboks offered the front of the lineout unopposed to the Pumas on most occasions. Many will tell you that this is a tactic that limits how a team can attack as ball won at the front of the lineout can’t be used to start a wide play.
There’s no doubt that winning the ball at the back of the lineout helps a team attack wide, but it’s incorrect to say that you can’t attack wide from ball won at the front.
If the Springboks are going to offer the front of the lineout I think the Wallabies have got to take it and design plays to play from there.
If they keep winning easy ball and attack successfully from that position, the Springboks will have to change their plan and start defending the front, opening space elsewhere in the lineout.
Watch the video below to see some examples of these four areas
Firstxv
Guest
The more look at the articles, comments, analysis and the lead up matches themslves the more convinced I am of a bok win. Oz dont have any one area of advantage over the Boks and are more than outmatched in the backs experience wise, let alone having much inferior pack. No worries I reckon Biltong. Good luck and enjoy the game.
mania
Guest
i agree. the ABs are guilty of this as well. waiting one tackle out in a pod of 2-3 waiting for the ball makes them sitting ducks. nice to see the boks reintroduce the forwards running onto the ball. the only time a forward should be static recieving the ball is when either it wasnt supposed to go to him or the forwards are in deep dodo.
IvanN
Guest
i read that, and dont misunderstand, its not that Willem is not good or playing well, its that he is over utilized and possibly needs a break to refind his best. Alberts does not offload for the same reason that Bulldozers dont have rear view mirrors. as someone pointed out in that same article, Alberts has not hit the same form that made him famous in 09/10. We rely too much on him getting us over the gainlne, but where his inclusion is still warranted is that only Duane can hit a tackle as hard as willem.
I don't like Jaques Potgieter, he plays like a wannabe Schalk burger, but has less impact than a mosquito on a wet paperbag. Willem will do fine this weekend. I compared the stats of our loose trio on another article, can't remember which one, when you look at that, he hasn't been as bad as one perceives. His biggest issue is he doesn't offload, EVER.
IvanN
Guest
spot on - HM should tell the boys to have a crack at it. Try new things, shock them a little. What do we really have to lose here? HM will not be fired if we lose - Aus are a good team and we are in their backyard. You know who really started to impress me towards the latter of S15 ? Jacques Potgieter.... no regard for his health or body, reminds me so much of skalla. Alberts is probably least best performing loosie of late, so Im hoping for a big performance from Wim until Arno returns to add some competition for that spot.
Banger
Guest
Agree re concerns on Folau's postioning. However, once it was decided that Cooper was going to be playing against the Bok's there was no way that Mogg could play. They are both t0o weak in the tackle, and the Wallabies at the moment are not playing well enough to afford themselves the luxury of playing them both at once. On the weekend however, I expect that we will see Cooper defending on the wing mostly (expect he and Folau will switch it up a bit as well), and Cummins will be defending in the channel
Brendan Hope
Roar Guru
Time will only tell if fielding Kirchner and Pienaar will be a problem. If they do make things more difficult for us, I hope HM ten subs them quickly, leaving us enough time to turn things around!
Individually there are dangerous players on attack in the Australian backline, Folau, O'Connor, Cooper and Genia all have the ability to be unpredictable. It is their unpredictability that makes them dangerous in my opinion. BUT, and this is the big but, Folau is not experienced yet, he is prone to going missing at times, Genia is not in great form, Cooper is prone to blunders and his confidence can easily be dented. O'Connor as an individual can be dangerous, but he doesn't necessarily play well with other, overall the Australian backline has not been cohesive at all this year. South Africa on the other hand, really only have Willie that is unpredictable, but the SA backline has oodles of pace, and with our forwards doing their job (If the do their job) will create space for them. As a cohesive unit, our backline is more dangerous, the Aussie backline is more dangerous as individuals at this moment in time, once they are cohesive I would rate them much more dangerous than ours, at the moment, I think all things being equal, it is a toss up. Where I would consider giving them the edge, but again this will only be seen on the weekend is their willingness and attitude to attack. I expect them to be more adventurous than the boks. but maybe, just maybe Meyer will have given his team license to go wild. That is exactly what I would have done if I was coaching the Boks, they have nothing to lose in OZ, everyone believes they will lose, everything, stats, history, etc. all tell you this is the one they won't win, might as well go guns blazing and not die wondering.
Jackie Smit
Guest
I also like Willie back on the wing, he did a brilliant job for the Cheetahs in that position and they also have the very predictable Hennie Daniller at fullback. I would however, have liked to see Pat Lambie slot in at the back.
I think engelbrecht's problem isn't that he cannot tackle, his positional play in defence is sketchy, but that can be worked on.
IvanN
Guest
rewatched highlights of SA vs. Australia in Pretoria last year, It was that crazy match where the wallabies suffered so many injuries that they had to finish with 14 men on hte field. Boks won 31-8, that win was built on big performances by etzebeth, louw and vermeulen.... if the wallabies dont handle the springbok pack this weekend, then the harlem globetrotters of backline wont see much front foot ball. Game will be won / lost in that area.
Chan Wee
Guest
the all blacks managed to contain the bok rolling mall at loftus in the last rc mach of 2012, which NZ won. they just managed to get inbetween the boks and splinter the maul, mainly done by the 2nd rowers. if my memory is right bekker was also there with eben. imo u have nicely analysed the issue OZ have ; vermulean v mowen. atm OZ have a 2nd rate 3rd row against a ist rate one of flow alberts vermulean. no contest ....
IvanN
Guest
Excellent article, not too much said about what we can expect at scrum time though. Boks seemed to have the edge on the Pumas in this facet, and hte pumas are renowned for their sscrummaging - anything to read into that ?
popeye
Guest
A mate of mine just uploaded this clip of hooper against the Springboks in last years tests, I'd forgotten how well the youngster went. www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjsYc4tn-y8
Rassie
Roar Rookie
How about not binding and wait for the ball to be transferred to the back then run against it to win the penalty for obstruction?
Brendan Hope
Roar Guru
Engelbrecht's channel will be a target I'm sure. Good runners like Lealiifano, Cooper and Folau joining the line will be asking more questions of him. I like the idea of Willie Le Roux on the wing in place of Basson but worry it takes that attacking prowess from the back away by fielding the predictable Kirchner. We all know the concerns about Pienaar's quick ball distribution. I fear our halfbacks could be outplayed by the Genia/Cooper combo. I feel South Africa have to win the forwards battle if they want to avoid their 8th straight defeat at Suncorp!
chris
Guest
Etzebeth is pretty special. Interestingly he was playing B team in the backline up u16 level. Had bit of growth spurt late in highschool and moved to lock. At 21 he is still not the finished product. His lineout work is still developing, having only started jumping in the line out two year ago as he was too heavy to lift for his schoolboy props.
Scott Allen
Expert
They are supposed to be penalised and normally are but a pretty big risk to rely on referees interpretation. Maul only needs to have made contact with one defender to then continue on without being penalised. I always tell the front blockers to grab one of the defenders as the jumper lands. Once that's done it doesn't matter if they break away, it's considered the same maul and can continue on.
davej
Guest
Thanks for your analysis Scott. Regarding lineout mauls – will a team be penalized for shepparding if the opposition does not engage with the maul? And if so, why do we not see the option used sporadically as a surprise tactic?
Mike
Guest
Many of our previous wins vs Boks had Vickerman at second row. He had a way of dealing with aggression from the other side that I am not sure any of our current S15 locks really understand. Comprehension of Afrikaans was just a minor side benefit.