So the mighty have fallen. And fallen. And fallen. Three upsets in the first week of finals, while not unprecedented since the inception of the final eight, is certainly rare enough to raise some eyebrows.
As Australians, we generally love to cheer the underdog.
Most people gave Sydney a genuine chance of upsetting Hawthorn in the first game of the round, possibly more so than any of the other matches.
But the Swans gave us close to their worst football of the season, and Hawthorn decimated them in the second half.
Many thought the gift of a home final at Simonds Stadium for Geelong would be enough to see them straight through to the preliminary final.
It can be argued the players fell into the trap of feeling that way, and weren’t prepared for Fremantle’s defensive onslaught and physical intimidation.
Neutral fans, unhappy at the preferred treatment given to the Cats by the AFL, were gleeful at the Dockers upsetting the established order. Freo supporters, who whinge like few others, went from irate to euphoric in the space of two hours of intense football from their side.
Port Adelaide have been the feelgood story of 2013, their trademarks being a never-say-die effort coupled with incredible belief and unyielding fitness.
Even so, not many gave them much chance of travelling to Melbourne and toppling a Collingwood outfit that was starting to look dangerous enough for some to paint them as a flag smoky.
For the second time on Saturday, the established order was upset.
While most of us were salivating at the prospect of a Cats v Pies cut-throat Friday night final next week at the home of football, including the Collingwood players, the Power surged early and often.
Port’s pressure was at a level Ross Lyon himself would have been proud of, and their ability to absorb it was even more impressive, exposing a couple of football myths in the process.
The Power lost the tackle count 56-81 and the inside 50 count 43-58. What they did do was corral extremely well and force their opponents to kick high and long, coupled with controlling the ball through short passing when in possession, borrowing something from the Hawthorn gameplan, recording 35 more marks than the Pies.
This was often matched with a play-on-at-all-costs mentality that broke open the Collingwood defence.
Richmond fans have been waiting over a decade to see their team play finals, and they didn’t let them down, accounting for the lion’s share of the 95,000 people on offer at the MCG yesterday.
The good news was the Tigers performed to the required standard, leading to guttural roars of approval from the ravenous hordes.
The bad news was that it was only for a half and, for the second time in four weeks, they had no answer to Carlton’s run and ball movement once the Blues started playing with freedom.
Richmond’s Plan A, fast, flowing, run-and-spread football, is capable of matching and beating the best sides. Their Plan B, when they slow it down and play tempo, gets them in trouble.
Carlton are the opposite. Their Plan A, call it ‘Malthouse football’, often hasn’t worked. But when unleashing Plan B, call it ‘Ratten football’, they look much more dangerous.
It’s not hard to believe their former coach would have them in a better position than their current.
It’s easy to get sucked in to barracking for the underdog, but the joy of seeing them get up is short term gain for long term pain.
Tommy Robredo ousting Roger Federer from the US Open was all well and good, wowed those watching, and was no doubt pleasing for Robredo and his connections.
But instead of seeing another potential classic match-up between storied rivals, we got Rafa Nadal cleaning Robredo out 6-0 6-2 6-2. Fans of the sport don’t win in that scenario.
Geelong v Collingwood would have seen a spine-tingling build-up and combustible atmosphere, as happened in previous recent finals between the two.
Geelong v Port will arrive with much less fanfare and depart with a much more predictable result.
Richmond is a side with the gameplan to expose Sydney on a big ground, but instead we’ll see a fired-up Swans despatch an unworthy Blues outfit that has fired their shot.
Some may think it presumptuous to be so flippant about the chances of the underdogs after a week of upsets, but we all know it to be the truth.
Those backing the underdogs this week will be handing back money to the betting agencies.
We’re on track for a couple of cracking preliminary finals, no doubt about it, but we have to get through the lull of the semi-finals first.
Be careful what you wish for when next cheering that underdog home.
Bignose
Guest
So Cam, you think Freo not winning is bad for football? Tough titties!
Troy
Guest
I can see where you're coming from with this, and on balance I think I agree, but some upsets have been the most memorable games ever. Perhaps the most famous example of the last 20 years is Carlton beating Essendon in the '99 PF. It likely robbed us of a better grand final that year than we got, but does the memorable PF more than make up for it? Maybe... Similarly this year, while we have been 'robbed' of a Hawthorn-Geelong GF, the Geelong-Fremantle QF was a cracker of a game (and Freo are some chance in the GF if they should make it). But I agree that Geelong-Collingwood and Sydney-Richmond would have likely made for more interesting matches this past week.
John Fedec
Guest
45-1 for all week 1 winners!
Radelaide
Guest
That freo bet was a good one also all 4 winners last weekend, geez the TAB must hate you or are you one of those uncontrollable gamblers who bets on anything and loses all your winnings on sports you don't know about.
The Real Bite
Guest
Yes Ronnie, either Ross Lyons or Ken Hinkley should win coach of the year. If Port get to the top four Freo will have to get to the top two for Ross Lyons to win it.
The Real Bite
Guest
Where was the upset in Carlton defeating Richmond? They lost by 5 points to Richmond in the first round and beat them by 10 points in R21. They were defeated by four goals or more only three times this year and no one beat them by as much as seven goals. They lost to Essendon by six points in R22, losing in the last minute of the game and having 31 scoring shots to 22. No excuse, they kicked badly but you cannot call that uncompetitive. Where was the upset in Port beating the Pies? Port beat them in R14, 13.8 to 7.9, by 35 points, in a game that was very high quality and a close contest until half time after which Port's speed, fitness and reflex ball handling blew the Pies away. When Freo demolished Port a few weeks ago I went out and put $100 on them to get to the Grand Final. Not to win it, just to get there. I picked all winners last week and now I'll have a go at this week's results. Geelong should get up against my team, Port, but don't be surprised if they go down big time. The Port boys are learning very quickly. While Kenny Hinkley "Wants to win everything", as he puts it, he does not see losses as setbacks but opportunities to learn, to illustrate where positive changes in playing patterns can be made. This gives his players the opportunity to really have a go and to take calculated risks. My tip: Geelong by less than four goals or Port by as much as six goals. Geelong are, at this time, playing a more predictable game which might help them over the line but might be their undoing. OK, I'll relucatantly pick... no I won't! I'm going for Port by... any margin will do. Carlton lost by 22 points to Sydney in R14 on a waterlogged SCG after being 27 points down at quarter time. In this game the umps gave Carlton a goal when Malceski was incorrectly penalised for deliberately rushing a behind, so it really wasn't as close as the scores indicate, but it was a hard, hard game in atrocious conditions and since then Carlton have gradually found more ways to win games. Last week Sydney got walloped by the Hawks and Carlton beat Richmond by much more than the scorelines indicate. The umpiring clearly favoured Richmont to the tune of four to six goals. My pick? Carlton by four goals.
Radelaide
Guest
Freo's win was awesome but collingwood had lost to the power this year by an average of 5 goals and only look good because they beat up on too many lower table teams at the G and massive media beatup that made them look better than they are this year.But now the cracks are exposed.
RonnieArani
Guest
The best thing from the week end of upsets was the very measurable results achieved by the two coaches Hinkley and Lyon. If ever there was an opportunity to laud the work of these two men, these "upsets" are it.
Bayman
Guest
Nick, Cam, While I understand what you are trying to say - and Nick, your last line said it perfectly - on balance I'm still pretty comfortable with the notion that the team which wins the finals is the one with the biggest score, not the one with the biggest supporter base. A year from now people will forget the stadium was only half full but they will remember who won.
Bayman
Guest
Cam, I'm just trying to get that picture set in my head..... AFL: Look here Port Adelaide, I know you beat Collingwood but we here in Victoria think that a Collingwood/Geelong semi-final will be more appealing Port Fan: Yes, when you put it like that I just know you're right. OK, leave Port out of it and let the Maggies play. A bigger crowd, better for television - just better. AFL: Thanks for seeing the bleeding obvious. Port Fan: No problems, happy to oblige. It was the least I could do, Now, Cam, do you really think that a Port fan would a) think a Geelong/Collingwood game was a better proposition and b) give a rat's arse that some other fans might. After all, if Collingwood was good enough.....they would have won. But they did not (which even pleased a lot of Victorians). You may not claim any pro-Vic bias but that might be because that bias is just a natural state for most Victorians so they don't actually see it themselves. Trust me, most fans outside Victoria have assigned some bias to your comments. Fancy having a finals series without Collingwood as a premiership chance. Who'da thunk it. It's like Janet Jackson's left tit, it's neither fair nor right!
Bayman
Guest
It's already been done, Jack, but under a different finals system.
kick to kick
Guest
Silly article really. The most important upset of the weekend was Freo over the Cats which sets up a more interesting pair of preliminary finals than would have occured otherwise. Freo will likely take on the Swans in the West and Hawthorn the Cats. Any result will make for a worthy Grand Final. The semi final round is in recent years fairly predictable anyway with the top 4 loser from the previous week generally taking advantage of a home final. And if not there will be a fairy story if either 9th placed Carlton or giant killers Port progress to a prelim. I don't get the reflex of Melbourne based writers to complain when big Melbourne clubs get knocked out, when the romance and appeal of a national competition makes something like the Port revival a far more interesting finals narrative.
Deep Thinker
Guest
Cam - along with poor umpiring and lack of state of origin, predictability is bad for football. If the game lacks the ability to surprise, what is the point of watching?
bryan
Guest
What is all this crud about upsets? If you take away the names & the inflated sense of the worth of Victorian teams,we have:- 3 beat 2----------certainly not that unusual! 7 beat 6---------ditto! The only real upset was 8 beating 5!
Andrew A
Guest
The AFL would've been happy for a Geel v Coll final from a financial perspective. The TV ratings would likely have been significantly higher too with the Pies and Richmond playing. It was no surprise to see Carlton beat Richmond again, & it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Blues knock off Sydney either. Collingwood were atrocious against Port & deserved to lose. Geelong would be happier playing Port instead of the Pies.
John Hines
Guest
Edan your reply was so well thought out and I totally 900 trillion percent agree with u mate
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
Sorry Cameron, but there is actually no proof of the upset winners have less chance. Obviously the underdog team got up a in a selection of the 2 following ways. 1. They played better than their opponents during the match and/or 2. Their opponents played so badly that they lost the game. If it's the first way, what is to say that the underdog cannot replicate their game against the better club, and if they do and still lose, what chance did the side they beat really have against the club anyway. If it's the second option, whats to say that the club that played terribly wouldn't have replicated their poor performance the week after. Lets take your example of Tommy Robredo going against Federer and Nadal. Assuming that Robredo outplayed Federer, whats to say that he couldn't have outplayed Nadal? and if he played at the same level against Nadal, and got thumped, whats to say that Federer wouldn't have had it worse. Or if Federer had a bad game against Robredo, what if he had played better and won and then he could have just as easily gone out and played worse against Nadal and got beaten worse than Robredo did. What your complaining about is one of the best parts about sport, the unpredictable human nature of sport where the best team doesn't always win. The long term has no effect on a week to week basis and the concept that an upset one week effects long term balance is utterly ridiculous.
Calum
Guest
Yep, one week is certainly a long term view
Johnno
Guest
The MCG is the the annoited home for the AFL, but not Australian rules football. Your underestimating the hatred WA/South Australia has for Melbourne/Victoria. They SANFL/WAFL, now Adelaide oval is almost renovated and the new Perth stadium coming soon too, they would love an AFL grand final in Adelaide/Perth. They see Australian rules football just as much theres, as Victoria centric AFL. Just look at the bitterness the AFL find when dealing with the SANFL. They get annoyed at the high rent SANFL, charges them to use football park etc. And also will be charged alot by SACA the cricket body at Adelaide oval. Adelaide/Perth hate Melbourne/Victoria, and get so angry at the constant thought that the MCG is the home of Australian rules football. Modern Adelaide oval AFL grand final will be awsome, but the VFL-AFL mob won't allow it.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I think you completely missed my point, John!