Rugby league tipsters have been working on dangerous ground in recent weeks as amazing form swings have tripped up many ‘sure things.’
The final premiership round saw upset losses by Canterbury, Manly, New Zealand and to a lesser degree, Souths, but I’m willing to examine the first week of finals footy and give Roarers my tips and victory margins.
I may well end up looking like a genius. On the other hand, I could finish looking like a galoot. So here goes:
Storm v Rabbitohs
A very difficult but interesting finals match-up with both teams showing patchy form.
Souths haven’t beaten Melbourne this year and I don’t feel they are going well enough to chalk up a win in week one.
The Rabbitohs looked overawed by the big occasion against the Roosters last Friday with their star halves Adam Reynolds and John Sutton way too quiet.
They will need to be right at their top to trouble the Storm, a team which knows how to win the big stuff in September and October.
Melbourne really struggled to get past the gallant Titans in the final round but they found a way in golden point extra time and that’s their habit in games of high importance.
The Turner Tip: Storm by 6.
Sharks v Cowboys
I cannot see the Cowboys losing here. They have built incredible momentum with six straight wins to reach the finals and have their key men in superb form.
Johnathan Thurston thrives on these big occasions as he has a bigger bag of tricks than most players in the game. I think the Cowboys are extremely dangerous coming down to Sydney with a nothing-to-lose mentality.
No-one expected them to be here a couple of months back but they have found their missing mojo and are playing some great football.
The Sharks should have a number of stars returning from injury but their stirring season looks to be ending in disappointment. Losing rampaging forward Andrew Fifita to injury last Sunday night will hurt them really badly.
The Turner Tip: Cowboys by 10.
Roosters v Sea Eagles
I’m still scratching my head over Manly’s sloppy loss to Penrith at Brookvale on Sunday and I appreciate they will be a much better outfit with Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough, Brenton Lawrence and Jorge Taufua back in business.
But I’m learning towards a Roosters win, I loved what I saw from them – especially Sonny Bill Williams – last Friday night.
They have beaten the Eagles in both of their meetings this season, so I am figuring they have worked out the right tactics to bring the maroon and whites down.
Who wasn’t impressed with the class and combination of Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney against Souths last week? I think they have the confidence to take the game right to Manly and their highly-rated halves pairing of Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran.
This game will be a beauty: highly physical early on and spectacular when the gaps begin to appear due to tiredness.
Both sides will be desperate for the win and a precious week’s break.
The Turner Tip: Roosters by 4.
Bulldogs v Knights
The Bulldogs disappointed with a late loss to the Broncs in the final competition round but the boys took plenty of confidence from their defence in that game.
Three of Brisbane’s tries came from kicks and there was some stirring goal-line tackling to keep them out on other occasions.
With the exception of Greg Eastwood, coach Des Hasler has all of his key players available for the game and that count for a lot at this exciting time of year.
The Knights, to me, are a funny side. When they are on song, they can destroy any team after setting a big, physical platform before handing things over to their speedy and talented backline.
On other days, the Knights can appear flat and devoid of points.
They have done exceptionally well to get this far but I am not completely sold on their ability to play hard for the entire 80 minutes and win a finals game.
The Turner Tip: Bulldogs by 8.
planko
Guest
Agreed !
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
It's going to be a monster encounter between Manly and the Roosters on Saturday. I think that will be the game of the round. It was pretty physical last week against souths too, I wonder if that has taken a bit out of them. Meanwhile Manly had the luxury of resting a few of their big names and will be fit and ready to fire. I think that their experience in these situations will hold them in good stead. Unilke last year Manly are full of running and look to be peaking at the right time of the year. Manly to win in a close one. For the same reason I think Melbourne will pip Souths at the post! Looking forward to another Manly v Melbourne grand final!!
Addington
Guest
Tipping is a thankless task ....Steve is brave even tipping to us all. Personally I think he's got all 4 games wrong ....Rabbits, Manly, Sharks, and Knights stand out for mine ....but I'm not a tipster haha! Good luck to all finalists ....its been an interesting year and I'm tipping MANLY to win it all .....errrrrrr but I'm not a tipster !
TheSturgeon
Guest
Are you asking me compared to who do they give away too many penalties? Or was it about the ref hammering them for anything? I think they give away too many penalties (that are justified penalties), I think when this happens they also get blown for soft penalties as a flow on. I think Ennis has been playing really well lately, you think he's gutless, like Barba. Happy to give you a break with as many apostrophes as you like.
Jason
Guest
I honestly think that all 4 of these games are a coin flip. I agree with Turner's tips though, Storm, Roosters, Cows and Doggies.
Lemuel
Guest
Barba was playing on both occasions when Newcastle beat them this year and I don’t think he is now anyway near the sort of form he was in when they played them during the season proper. He just returned from a significant layoff and I don’t see him playing any better than he did in the two previous games. Newcastle has shown in recent weeks that they do not panic to a great extent as you claim. Very recently they came from behind to beat the Sharks and the Broncos. The Bulldogs may have a good Defence but the Knights have a better Defence just look at the stats for this year. Newcastle have a better For and Against record than the two teams in front of them. McManus and Leilua are in the top ten for leading try scorers; Barba is not even in the top twenty. Anyway, I will cop your logic and wait to compare your tips against mine on Monday!
nathan chapman
Guest
I would just like to say thankyou everyone for just talking about the footy and not mentioning asada/sharks debarcle, good luck to all teams including manly and storm.lol
I'mastormtrooper2
Guest
Compared to who ... Give me a break !!! Ennis is a Menice and doesn't have the respect of the Ref's ... He also believes he's a protected species who hates being tackled - would rather one of team take the hit ... Not a grub - just gutless - Like Barba ...
I'mastormtrooper2
Guest
The difference between the top 4 and the bottom 4 is the privilege of having a home game and two chances ... Coming from 5, 6, 7 & 8 to be the Premiers is no mean feat ... It has been done, but it's one hell of an ask ... The question that also needs to be asked is "what teams in the 8 have had the most experience in finals over the last 5 years to 10 years ???
I'mastormtrooper2
Guest
You obviously haven't been listening to the EXPERTS and LEAGUE LEGENDS who work for 9 ???
I'mastormtrooper2
Guest
Love your positivity Morfs - The 26 rounds make me nervous, let alone finals ... I never take anything for granted and I hope the Storm don't either ... Just want them to stick together, show their metal and give it their best shot ... Their fans will support them through it all ... :-) No two ways Manly think they have what it takes to trounce on the Rabbitoh's ... They're obviously hoping the Storm and Rabbits bash each other to death ... Manly think the "soft option" is backing their attack against the Roosters - No JWH and their ploy of losing to the Panthers to give them an extra preporation day ... No investigation requested into that ... "You can't put brains into monuments", and "You don't have to be a Rhodes Scholar to figure it out" ...
TheSturgeon
Guest
Discipline will be the key for the bulldogs. They give away too many penalties, and the refs seem to hammer them for anything to boot. Ennis has been playing really well, I just hate it when he kicks!
Roarsome
Guest
Storm Cowboys Dogs Roosters.....just!
Dilger
Guest
Ennis is the key in that game. People write him off and say he's a grub and whatever but he's a smart player and controls the ruck so well. He is so unlucky not to be the nsw hooker. He forces teams into giving away penalties, he can work the refs and not to mention how he runs from the play the ball and his average of 40 tackles a game. I think knights are given too much of a wrap for how they performed so hot and cold this season. Their team sheet easily has the potential of being a top 4 team but this season in most their games they have been a flip a coin sort of team. If somehow they beat the dogs they won't go much further then that.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
The Bulldogs always fire in September is one of the great myths of the NRL. Since winning the title in 2004, the Dogs have made the Finals four times and missed them four times. When they have made the Finals, they have won four games and lost five. It's hardly a frightening prospect (especially when you compare it with Melbourne or Manly in September over the same period!).
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I tend to agree - I've taken the Storm / Manly quinella at $7.00 and I think that's great value. Souths and Easts are a risk at the price - no real finals experience.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
You're probably right Eagle. I just think all four games are really tight, and you're better going with the value. Box up the trebles so you can afford to drop a game, and I reckon you're laughing.
Xnowmann
Guest
Totally agree Tim,we love being the under-bulldogs in everybody's eyes and the finals are a totally different game. Write us off at your peril..
Tim Prentice
Expert
Yep. Barba & Kasiano have some sea-legs now. Pritchard back. Dogs defence last week very good on their line. This is September: Bulldogs always fire. Two losses to Knights this year BUT Newcastle are a streaky team. Will panic if not in the front-running position. Also, Doggies have Barba ..... OK with you?
Lemuel
Guest
Mr. Prentice, Could you tell me why you think the Bulldogs will beat the Knights?