One week before the Wallabies take on the Springboks at one of the world’s most famous grounds, spring can’t decide if it should announce itself to Cape Town or wrap up for a further month or two in its blanket of mist and heavy, downy cloud.
Cape Town’s warm weather always arrives late and like an obstinate unborn infant, clinging to his mother’s womb long after his expected appearance.
Winter in Cape Town is not just a lingering reality, it is a burdensome curse.
Capetonians have had to endure near-freezing temperatures, with the heaviest rains in decades.
Iconic Table Mountain’s southern slopes plunge from its sandstone heights into the most beautiful, tree-lined suburbs you would ever wish to see, with waterfalls cascading into rivers that feed the country’s favourite brewery – appropriately across an oak-lined avenue from Newlands Stadium.
It is here the Boks will meet a Wallaby team eager to prove their potency after the apparent emasculation they suffered in Brisbane.
As a Cape Town native, I can report an eerie calm has descended over the city, with any talk about rugby still firmly on the subject matter of ‘that tackle’ by ‘that hooker’ as ruled by ‘that ref’.
So too, the talk is about the weather and if the snow-capped Helderberg Mountains have more snow on them this year than in years gone past.
A visit by a determined Australian team simply doesn’t feature much and a recent enquiry at the stadium indicates tickets are still available.
In the days leading up to the game, the situation will change.
Capetonians will aim their attention on the game and talk will be of players seen at Cape Town’s various swanky spots and whether retribution will be meted out on the Australians or not.
On game day itself, I expect the Australians will be accommodated in nearby Claremont and will have a light training session at one of the prestigious all boy schools, while watched by boatered and blazered crowds.
By late afternoon, the streets will be packed with supporters jostling for parking, while Congolese parking attendants usher them on.
A short walk to the stadium will fill your belly and clothe your body in all the regalia you will ever need. Braaing meat and the yeasty smell from the brewery will greet you as you enter this stadium.
The experience is one that will soon be coming to an end, as Cape Town Stadium will soon be home to rugby fixtures in Cape Town.
Newlands faithful have joyfully embraced the trend of heckling the opposition and with the stadium as intimately built as it is, the players should hear every curse hurled at them.
The weather is expected to be cold, wet and windy and the Boks will be expected to enjoy the forward-orientated game the weather will bring.
Expect a 10 point Springbok winning margin.
They just must not panic tomorrow, execution is key.
StrYdeRZA
Guest
I think you've probably nailed the basics that the Boks should be focusing on. The breakdowns seem to be on an upward curve, perhaps Richie Gray is making a difference although I can only think the opposition must be relieved when they hear Bismark is not starting! Although in this case starting Strauss is the right call and really in the Smit/Bismark era they should have rotated starting positions too... I know Smit was captain but he could've shared that with JdV... I digress. As much as I like Ruan Pienaar (and I'm starting to feel like the only Saffa who does!) he hasn't performed well, to be fair he has been improving incrementally but we've seen the difference between him and FdP, so expect the tactical kicking and clearance from rucks to be a step up from the last few games... Missed tackles; the Boks have looked like they're missing too many 1st time tackles, but is that not a product of the defensive system? I forget what they're doing these days, is it a sliding, rushed, umbrella, scramble? It seems to my eyes that the attacking player is given the space to aim for between two 1st line defenders which is covered by a 3rd player on a 2nd line, often the attacker escapes one or both of the 1st line defenders to be grabbed by the 2nd line defender and is then surrounded by 3 defenders pretty quickly... well that's what the theory looks like at any rate. And if I'm right it might explain the missed tackle count? Also when you've seen the Bok back line live you realise just how many times they step up out of line to go for the intercept that is never picked up on TV... and if they don't get that intercept suddenly there are nice big holes for the attackers to aim for. Let's hope tomorrow is a good game, for all the right reasons. The Wallabies so desperately need a good performance but have they found the personnel and tactics to deal with the big Boks? The Boks so desperately need a bonus point win but have they found the personnel to sharpen things up a bit and are they focusing on the right tactics?
Agree with you Stryder. I see four areas of improvement to focus on. We need consistency at the breakdown, we seem to be off in some games. Our tactical kicking has not been good and our clearance at the rucks have been poor. This doesn't allow our backline enough time when we build phases, hence our best success coming off line outs and counter attacks. And we are missing too mamy tackles.
StrYdeRZA
Guest
Nice to see you still around BB! I'm a little concerned about HM and the Boks, it's been said elsewhere; for 2 seasons running now the Pumas have "surprised" them in Mendoza with passion and a disruptive game plan despite the pre-match interviews from HM and JdV being full of how much the Boks respected the proud Pumas... still on the day it seemed they were caught off guard. So I know these guys interview well, but I don't trust that it's being translated in to their performances. These Wallabies have a point to prove, Brisbane must be hurting, a lot, there will be passion and Ewan McKenzie may well have noted the success Argentina and Scotland have had against the Boks by being disruptive.
No need to worry about that, de Villiers says the Boks know this match is like a knock out mTch, they must win tomorrow to stay in the title race.
StrYdeRZA
Guest
I'm not sure that yours is the voice of reason, but I certainly hope the Boks aren't listening to all the 20 + winning margin "predictions" either, it's going to be tough! For the 1st 60 minutes in Brisbane there was not much difference on the scoreboard and the Wallabies were having a "shocker"... The Boks need to win tomorrow and that's all they should be focusing on. Hope the Boks put in a strong clinical performance tomorrow, because the Wallabies will be fired up (nothing like being written off to get you going!) and hopefully McKenzie will show us his ideas on how to compete against a team like the Boks... which will come in very handy against the Pumas the following week.
Bones506
Roar Guru
3 words the Wallabies can expect: BLUNT FORCE TRAUMA.
jason8
Guest
Guys its gonna be wet n windy most likely.... i predict ugly, sloppy, error strewn rugby and the team most likely to win is the team that wants it more - i think it will be close.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Who needs enimies...
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Only if SA lose and they wont. Aus 21 SA 38
Mike
Guest
I reckon Wallas can press the Boks to within 10 points. I know there are a lot of negatives, but there are still a few players here with plenty of experience of beating the Boks, particularly in close games. I think they will play better than they have been doing lately, I think McKenzie is starting to put Pulver's "Australian way" behind him and to concentrate on just doing the basics well, and I wonder if Boks are perhaps a little more focussed on the next game against ABs than on this one. Like all predictions, this will prove to be 100% accurate....
Harry Jones
Guest
Excellent post, Pieter. The 2011 QF loss in the Cake Tin at Wellington--that my son and I attended--taught me this lesson: OZ can win a Test match with scraps of possession and scant territory. We must turn the screws, exploit our set piece advantage, translate it into points in the first half, and then roll over a tired Wallaby squad. SA 31 OZ 11
Brett Susan
Guest
My thoughts exactly Pieter...one thing we have all learnt is that the Aussies don't back down. Famous Boer rebel Deneys Reitz said in his book Commando that the Australian soldiers that he fought against in the Boer War were head and shoulders above any others in the Queen's army and were just as good as the Boers themselves. That mentality will be on show on Saturday and their supporters must back them now more than ever.
Mighty Horua
Guest
Where are they training this week? Bishops?
colvin
Guest
Brett, nice write up. Just one point, didn't the Brumbies beat the Bulls in the Super semi final against all expectations? A number of the same people are playing, just wearing different shirts. So it's not necessarily all over before the game starts. There's not many teams that fight back better when it's down than the Wallabies.
DR
Guest
Good post Pieter. Well laid out.
Magic sponge
Guest
Moore Hooper and Fardy those qlders are the passengers . Kerry you must be joking about Moore he's one of our best especially in the loose.
Pieter Sauerman
Guest
I was once told the story of a massive tree in the woods, with a sparrow in its branches. The winds came in all it's might, shaking the tree until the shear force of the gale winds ripped the branch that the sparrow was sitting on right off the tree. What happened to the sparrow? Nobody knows, it flew away... While I am grateful to hear the buoyancy of the Bok fans rather than the constant bickering we had a couple of years ago whilst coached by Pieter de Villiers, we might be setting ourselves up for disappointment. I would love to see the Boks romp to a fine bonus point victory - but beware the wallaby. Truth be told, SA fans expect to beat the Wallabies on most days, even in the worst of days. We feel that we should assert dominance in the tight phases, come scrum and line out time. We should win the collisions in the loose, and kick our goals. Come 2011 World Cup, Bryce Lawrence aside, the Wallabies find a way to win, facing the physical Springboks. 2011 is but an example with many more perhaps the most glorious the 2003 semi final win against the All Blacks. The Springboks should win but if I was Heyneke Meyer I'd keep the following in mind. Scrum: I hardly believe Ben Robinson to be the Aussie Messiah of scrumming, but you can't buy 59 caps and while he won't dominate he knows how to disrupt, never playing under the new laws might be an advantage. I'm of the opinion they'll try to destabilize the engagement by means of walking the scrum come the hit. Dropping the bind will give you at least 50-50 chance of retaining the ball which is a hell of a lot better than the 1 of 5 they got in Brisbane. This will also never settle the referee which in turn can turn this into a real dogfight. Line outs & driving mall: the best way to beat the Boks in this area is to prevent it. They won't kick to touch and will play a very territorial game. Don't be surprised to see Genia playing again, by implementation an extra defender will be sweeping the ruck and not supporting the back three which in turn will see Kirchner kicking possession back. Rucks/malls and tackle balls: Australia was pretty naive in trying to outrun the Boks in Brisbane. They got caught in midfield by Bismark, Vermeulen, Louw and Alberts which kept the ball in the air. Two ways to work around it. I suspect they'll turn the pack with kicking rather than trying to outflank them. Another option will be use Cooper, Folau, Hooper and Mowen set up collisions on the touch lines rather than test the midfield and Genia trying to open it up later. Bonuspoints: Australia knows SA will chase the bonus point. By frustrating them into a territorial kicking game, keeping their set piece in check they may force errors as playmakers as le Roux and du Preez might want to force the pace. Physicality: SA might have had the physical edge at Brisbane but come Cape Town the Aussies will front up. If I was Ewen I'd instruct the Aussies to not only front up but also to provoke the Boks, where they never really respond well. Remember Mendoza the last 2 years. Well that's how I'll try it. Execution will be key, but see a close dogfight with SA pulling through because of home ground advantage. Come the Bok physicality and break the branch, the Aussies will do what swallows do and fly. Loving the roar, thanks to all who contribute
maxxlord
Roar Rookie
Its a Wallaby win here, i just cannot see them just folding up again. Wishful thinking? Probably, but hell, i was calling for the Wallabies to lose under Deans so i may as well back them to the hilt now. Not too many changes can be made to personnel so it has to be a shift in attitude i guess. The right players are on the park, apart from injury and JOC, now they have to step up. I would take a close game with a bit of luck or brilliance at the end to snatch it.
Chan Wee
Guest
MMMM, SV , r u South African. Becoz someone I know in SA said the same about Newlands. To qoute him : "... the wind is a bi*@h and the crowd invented booing! "