The grand final lead up has spooky similarities to that of last year.
As the 2013 grand final draws rapidly closer, could we be destined for a mirror image of last season’s decider?
With the biggest day in the football calendar drawing ever so close, of course footy is all the rage. In almost every newspaper, news website, radio talk show and social media avenue; previews, predictions and analysis of the upcoming game are being discussed in great detail.
It’s hard not to have football on your mind all day, every day.
And with a grand final with so much to look forward to like this Saturday’s that case is even stronger.
In one corner is the team from out west, Fremantle. A defensive minded, almost army like in the way they are drilled football side. And in the other corner we have the offensive fire powered juggernaut that is Hawthorn.
Sound familiar? A grand final featuring two very contrasting brands of footy. One that relies on hard-nosed, pressurised acts, versus another which hurts you with their devastating skills and scoring capabilities.
Sounds to me like a match that was played some 360 odd days ago.
The 2012 grand final. Sydney’s defensive minded assault against Hawthorn’s slick ball movement and preciseness.
But the similarities don’t stop there. In fact it only opens the door to a flurry of eerily similar stats and information as we get ready for an epic grand final.
Let me run through a host of statistics, facts and gathered information from September 2012 to September 2013.
Hawthorn wrapped up the minor premiership in 2012 (17-5) and were widely considered the best team in league. The Hawks also took out first place after the home and away season in 2013, winning the minor premiership (19-3) and cementing themselves as the team to beat.
We then look to both Fremantle of this year and Sydney of 2012. The Swans finished up 2012 in third spot (16-6). Fremantle also ended up third (16-5-1) at the conclusion of this year.
As we look to the finals, the trend continues as all parties follow a spooky form guide.
The Hawks won their Qualifying Final in 2012 in resounding fashion, brushing off Collingwood 135-97. They also breezed through its 2013 qualifier, disposing of Sydney 105-51 to earn a week’s rest and a home preliminary final for two successive years.
Fremantle and the Swans also shared very similar qualifying final results, with the two sides both hitting the road to face off in hostile conditions.
The Swans of last year stormed into South Australia and knocked off the second placed Crows at AAMI Stadium to book a home preliminary final.
And well, we all remember what the Dockers produced in the first week of this year’s finals campaign. An unbelievable victory against the cats in Geelong at Simonds Stadium, a venue the cats had won 49 of their last 51 games at.
Let’s now move to the preliminary finals, where things really get a tad weird.
Hawthorn lined up against Adelaide in their 2012 grand final qualifier, but were challenged greatly by the Crows, clinging onto a five point win (97-92) despite having 10 more scoring opportunities (32-22).
Than look to the preliminary final just gone. The Hawks again just barely got over the line, defeating Geelong by the exact same margin as that of a year ago, five points (102-97).
This next stat is what is most creepy. Just like the 2012 preliminary, Hawthorn had 10 more scoring opportunities than their opposition in 2013. But not only that, it was the exact same number of shots to both sides, both years!
Hawthorn had 32 shots to the Cats 22, the exact number from the 2012 contest when the Hawks had 32 to the crows 22 as mentioned earlier.
On the other side of the ledger, both Fremantle of this year and Sydney of last had comprehensive home preliminary final victories.
The Swans eliminated Collingwood by 26 points (96-70) in 2012, Having 11 more scoring shots (31-20) than the ‘pies. And Fremantle, who ousted the swans by 25 (99-74) also completely dominated with 10 more scoring opportunities (29-19).
As we now move into grand final week, it is again a much of a muchness. A distinct resemblance that is still clear in every footy fan’s mind.
You have the clear premiership fancies in Hawthorn up against a hard-nosed, blue collared team many believed and believe now are no real threat.
But you have to look at the respective side’s form guide.
The Hawks in both years almost fell short of even making the big dance. Whereas Sydney of a season ago and the Dockers of this year have flown through the entire finals series and into the grand final with flying colours, playing irresistible football that definitely warrants and as Sydney showed last year, can produce a flag, even against a formidable force.
Now with all of these facts and stats put forward, you may still just say that superstition has nothing to do with football and the stats of a year ago mean nothing, which they could very well end up doing. But you cannot take away that there is a striking resemblance between the two grand final lead ups and we could very well be destined for another upset on the last Saturday in September.
One thing though I think we can all agree on is we all hope that that the 2013 grand final can live up to the greatness that the 2012 grand final did.
And I hope we are all enthralled and glued to our seats for two and a half hours on Saturday afternoon, beginning at approx. 2:45pm.
R Byrne
Guest
As an impartial observer, I'm hoping for a ripper of a game! The rain will make things very interesting! It it pours, then this suits Freo no doubt. If if stays away, the Hawks will win by about 6 goals. What may have been overlooked here is the "hardness" of both teams. If Freo hit the Hawks with the manic pressure they instilled upon Sydney, it will be interesting to see if the Hawks' bodies can take it. Personally, I doubt it! The Dockers' bodies are harder and less responsive to pain, than their counterparts. The rain would inhibit the Hawks running game and turn it into a slug affair. This is where Freo excel. The Rugby style of footy they play, is the best of it's kind EVER in the history of the Sport! What a fascinating contest we are in for! Ali vs Frazier all over again! Can't wait! May the best team win! Prediction: Freo by 10 points!!! 2013 - The Year of The Dockers!!!
R Byrne
Guest
Your point about incorrect disposal is a valid one. If it rains, which is likely, the Umpires will have to be very diligent when it comes to incorrect disposal of the footy. Skill levels tend to drop when rain appears, so with Fremantle's style of play the Umpires will have to pay due diligence to this aspect of the Game, otherwise it will become an ugly affair rather than a spectacle.
New York Hawk
Guest
We are prone to choking in big matches? Just like last week's prelim? Or the qualifying final against the Swans? So we lost the GF last year and the 2011 prelim. We were overrun in 2012 midway through the final quarter by an excellent, hard at it team that had incorrectly been given an extra day's rest. So instead of having a day more recovery than the swans, we had a day less - a two day turnaround disadvantage. In a GF against a physical team that can make all the difference at the end of a match. Eg being run over in the second half of the last quarter. As for 2011, the pies were far superior to us all year and we while we should possibly have closed them out, they should have won that game and they did. It was hardly an unexpected result. Sometimes excellent football teams beat other excellent football teams and the perceived "differences in ability" between them are very minor or non-existent. As for everyone tipping the hawks, that was las year - everyone is tipping Freo on the back of flogging the swans and getting across the line with the cats. Bizarrely this is exactly what the hawks did, but no one seems to care as apparently we should have smashed both beyond recognition. I hope everyone thinks Freo will win as it would make a welcome change for us. I am quietly confident we will get over the line. Go hawks!
Johnno
Guest
Last year the swans ended a losing streak that dated back to 2005 against the Pies. This year the Hawks broke the Kennett curse dating back to 2008 against the Cats. Both teams had those victories in Preliminary Finals - 'penultimate clutch matches' where a team's ability to face their internal self-confidence destroying demons is on show to the whole of the football world who is waiting to watch them fall over. The Hawks also did something unique this year. In breaking the curse they put an end to the chain of permierships that Geelong were winning in every odd year since 2007. I think depending upon the way that people try to analyse matches like this, there are always going to be 'deja vu like' features between the current teams playing off for glory and champion teams of the past, but the beauty of this is that they are never truly the same and nothing is guaranteed because of these similarities. I'm a swans supporter and the funny thing is that I sort of want both teams to do well. I want Freo to win a flag. And I have a lot of respect for players like Burgoyne, Mitchell, Hodge and I've always had a lot of respect for Clarkson as a coach. As much as Freo have played out of their skin - particularly the last half of this season - I think the Hawks will have this one. Not because of history. Not because of deja vu. But rather when it is 3 qtr time and they have been outplayed and are possibly down by 20 points against the 'pressure cooker' Freo side. The pain of potentially seeing another team hold the Premiership Cup aloft will be enough to sort things out by the final siren.
Avatar
Roar Guru
All very interesting trivia there. If anything is to go by, then the Dockers will win, but the Hawks will be desperate to bury the demons of last year's Grand Final failure. The Hawks are prone to choking in big matches, so it'll be interesting how they handle the Grand Final this time around. The last five Grand Finals have been won by the team that won their prelim final by the bigger margin, and if the trend continues, then god knows what will happen.
Griffo
Guest
Another bit of trivia in Grand Finals regarding deja vu. The first drawn Grand Final was 1948, the second 29 years later in 1977, and 29 years after in 2006 the margin was 1 point. The hundredth anniversary curse which last 5 seasons. Melbourne were the 1900 premiers, 2000 they lost the Grand Final. Essendon were the 1901 premiers, in 2001 they lost the Grand Final. Collingwood were the 1902 and 1903 premiers, in 2002 and 2003 they lost the Grand Final. Fitzroy were the 1904 premiers, in 2004 the product of the merger between the Bears and Fitzroy the Brisbane Lions lost the Grand Final. Interestingly in 2011 Sydney finished the H&A 7th and beat Grand Finalist of the previous year, St. Kilda away from home. The following year they finished 3rd after H&A and beat the minor premiers Hawthorn in the Grand Final. In 2012 Fremantle finished 7th in the H&A and beat the Grand Finalist (and premier) of the previous year, Geelong away from home. The following year they finished 3rd after H&A and meet the minor premiers Hawthorn in the Grand Final.
Marc
Guest
A bit of trivia and all to do with the topic of deja vu in Grand finals. Essendon in 1965 when beating St Kilda kicked 14.21-105, they didnt win another flag until 1984 when they kicked 14.21-105 again to run over the top of Hawthorn in the last quarter. Also both St Kilda and Hawthorn were coached by Allan Jeans.
hawker
Guest
"You have the clear premiership fancies in Hawthorn up against a hard-nosed, blue collared team many believed and believe now are no real threat." FWIW every football show i've seen since saturday the 'experts' have picked Freo
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
It is certaintly interesting how history repeats. The 2005 and 2006 matches between West Coast and Sydney bear eery similiarities as well. One example is Sydney lost to the Eagles in 2005 Qualifying by 4 points but beat them by them by that margin in the GF. In 2006, West Coast lost to Sydney in the Qualifying final by 1 point, but beat them by that margin in the GF. Personally I hope history does repeat as last year's GF was an absolute cracker.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Yeah players dropping the ball seems to be fine now, what a joke! If a player drops the ball that is incorrect disposal. I agree with you Avon on this point.
Avon River
Guest
Just hoping injuries or poor umpiring comes too much into the frame. I would like to see incorrect disposal targetted a bit more. The balance of interpretation in this sort of match up can be telling. Hawthorn the more likely to benefit if umpires decide that every ball as simply been "jarred" free in the tackle.