It is just two days before the last Saturday in September, the day upon which one team reaches the Holy Grail, and another team stews over their missed chance. This time around, it will be the mighty Hawks against the exciting Dockers.
This game will be a first for many people, with it being Fremantle’s first ever grand final. But what issues will factor in the game’s outcome?
X-factor players
Hawthorn’s two x-factors are Shaun Burgoyne and Ben Stratton.
Shaun Burgoyne played his best game for Hawthorn last week, picking up 24 disposals, laying six tackles and kicking three important goals.
Ben Stratton had a quiet night against Geelong but took two important marks in the dying minutes of the last quarter.
Stratton’s ability to play on small and tall forwards was highlighted in last year’s preliminary final, when he chased down Patrick Dangerfield in the dying minutes to help win Hawthorn the game.
He averages five marks a game and around 15 disposals.
Fremantle also has many players that can provide x-Factor, but I have chosen two players who have stepped up in this year’s finals season.
Firstly, Nathan Fyfe. In season 2013 he has averaged 25.7 disposals and has kicked a solid 18 goals in his 21 games for the season.
Fyfe’s ability to move forward and kick crucial goals is a wonderful attribute to have on the big stage.
Fremantle’s other X-Factor is Michael Walters, who this season has booted 44 goals and averaged 15.6 disposals from 20 games, which is a great return from a small forward.
Walters kicked 3.2 in the preliminary final and took a magnificent mark in the third quarter.
Key match-ups
Brian Lake v Matthew Pavlich
The Lake v Pavlich match-up will be an interesting one, as Lake is capable of matching it with Pavlich but his only struggle may be when Pavlich is streaming out of the forward line on a lead.
If Lake can be fast and agile enough, he will definitely be able to hinder Pavlich’s involvement in the play.
Max Bailey v Aaron Sandilands
If anyone can match it with Sandilands, it would be Bailey.
If Hawthorn are to win the grand final, Bailey will have to play a full game and not be subbed off in the third quarter like he has been in the past.
Both Sandilands and Bailey have great tapping skills and have shown they can have a huge influence for their respective sides.
Ryan Crowley v Sam Mitchell
Mitchell has shown before he can shrug off a tag and continue to dominate like he does a lot, but Crowley is a good tagger and has stopped the likes of Daniel Hannebery.
If Mitchell is to shrug off the tag, he will need help from all of his teammates. For example at a centre bounce if Bailey wins the tap and hits it in the direction of Mitchell, another Hawthorn midfielder will need to block Crowley so that he can’t get to Mitchell.
Luke McPharlin v Lance Franklin
This is another interesting match-up, as Franklin has not been in the greatest of form and McPharlin has a small injury worry.
Franklin has previously played well against McPharlin but, as I mentioned previously, he isn’t in the greatest of form.
If Franklin manages to play well and kick a bag, it will surely play a big part in the result. However, If McPharlin can hold Franklin to a goal or two, it will definitely benefit Freo.
Key players
Hawthorn – Mitchell and Jack Gunston
If both Mitchell and Gunston play well, Hawthorn will win, but, if they both have a quiet day, it could lead to a second Hawthorn grand final loss in a row.
Both Mitchell and Gunston starred for Hawthorn against Geelong, with Mitchell racking up 38 disposals and Gunston kicking four majors.
Fremantle – Michael Barlow and Michael Johnson
If Barlow plays well, Fremantle seem to win, if he has a quiet day, Fremantle seem to struggle a little bit.
Barlow’s ability to go and go and go is brilliant. He is Fremantle’s Sam Mitchell, ‘the clearance king’!
Johnson is also an important part of the Fremantle structure. His ability to create run off the backline and play on a tall forward helps Ross Lyon’s team become much more flexible.
Problems the teams may face
Hawthorn will need to stop Michael Walters – as I mentioned earlier, he is in brilliant form at the moment and can rip a game apart at any stage.
Fremantle will need to find two players who can match-up on Gunston and Luke Breust, both are extremely dangerous when they are on song.
Who plays for Brendan Whitecross?
Now the unlucky Brendan Whitecross has been ruled out of the game, who will come in?
Many people are suggesting either Jed Anderson, Shane Savage or Taylor Duryea will come in.
Duryea should play because he could play on Walters and try and tag him. But I don’t think that is what Alistair Clarkson wants.
Clarkson wants someone tough and fast, and Jed Anderson ticks those boxes.
Injury worries
Hawthorn have two small injury problems, with Paul Puopolo hurting his ankle and Brent Guerra suffering a corked thigh during the five point win over Geelong.
As I mentioned earlier, Brendan Whitecross snapped his ACL and will not play.
Fremantle also have two minor injury worries, with both Michael Johnson and Luke McPharlin spending lengthy time on the bench during their side’s win over Sydney.
All four of these players are expected to play.
Pressure is the key!
Hawthorn and Fremantle are both ranked on Champion Data in the top five for pressure acts. This grand final could be a scrappy one!
Expect lots of tackles from the likes of Chris Mayne and Jordan Lewis, who had 13 and 9 tackles respectively in their preliminary finals.
Does the extra day help?
Due to Hawthorn playing on the Friday night and Fremantle playing on the Saturday, Hawthorn have a one day advantage in preparation for the game.
It doesn’t seem like an advantage, because both teams had the previous week off. But, as they always say, only time will tell!
Inaccurate kicking
Both the Hawks and the Dockers suffered from bad kicking in their respective preliminary finals.
In the fourth quarter against Geelong, the Hawks kicked 4.8! In the first quarter against Sydney, the Dockers kicked 2.9!
Both teams will need to improve in this area.
The final say!
This game will be a close one, but will break open in the third quarter and Hawthorn will kick away to a 24 point win.
The Hawks’ foot skills are too good and they will be able to cut through the Dockers’ defence.
Hawks by 24.
Norm Smith – Isaac Smith.
Crowd prediction – 99,800.
Max Willis
Roar Pro
Jack Gunston! haha
Bean
Guest
First goal kicker...?
Jax
Guest
Mayne is the best set shot Freo have from 40m or closer. Look at his record
Nudge
Guest
It's meant to be very windy at the G on Saturday, so this will help the dockers press even more. Hawthorn rely on a clean short kicking game. Try doing that consistently in 40 km winds against one of the best defensive teams ever. Dockers by 11 points
Martyn50
Roar Rookie
99,000 is 2,000 to many. Remember that Freo lack support in Melbourne. Had it been an all Melbourne GF then yes 100,000. Will the fact that Fremantle have not played consecutive matches sine RDs 21 and 22. Rd 23 they played their 2nd side before the Geelong game. 2 weeks of before a wounded Sydney that also had to travel.
EddyJ
Guest
I've noticed that many comments have mentioned that Hawthorn will win because they lost last year. I've never understood that logic – each grand final is a separate entity. Collingwood didn't win in 2003 (after losing in 2002 - nor did they win in 1980 or 1981 for that matter), although they might have succumbed to the 'lose one before you can win one' thinking, and thought that it was their destiny to win. But it just didn't happen. It might matter in a very close game, but very hard to quantify this theory. Fremantle are very well placed to win on Saturday – they have had the best defence in the finals and have played better than Hawthorn have in their two finals matches. The additional day's rest will assist Hawthorn but Fremantle's form over the past two months (including the finals) has been exceptional. Much has been said about Fremantle's ferocious pressure against Sydney in last week's second quarter, but Sydney were cooked, so hard to read too much into that. Hawthorn will be a different proposition, but still feel that Fremantle should be able to win their first premiership.
Avatar
Roar Guru
Last year, Hawthorn played more games at the MCG than the Swans (only one) did all regular season, but it counted for nothing in the big game. But yes I think the Hawks will be smarting from last year's loss and will be itching to go one better this time.
Dockersfan
Guest
Nice stats Will. The last 5 times Pav has played the Hawks he has kicked 8 goals. Not so great? He's also had 30 and 29 possession games in that time, which looks a little bit better. In fact when you look at the 3 games he played as a forward and not in the midfield he's kicked 6 goals in those games. Not great but no where near as bad as you've tried to portray it. Plus included in those 18 games is the years he played in the backline when he won All Australian as a back man.
Australian Rules
Guest
IN: Simpkin Emerg: Spangher, Savage, Duryea
Lee
Guest
Interesting that so many 'experts' miss the fact that Freo players got the biggest spread of votes for the Brownlow. Outscoring the next nearest team by 3 players. No surprise that Fyfe, Barlow and Mundy were the highest scorers. And anyone who thinks Freo haven't fine foot skills hasn't seen much of Mundy, Walters, Fyfe, Johnson or Hill in action under pressure. The Dockers should win.
David
Guest
I think Shiels will start as a tagger He kept Selwood to 2 touch's in Q1 last week and then was moved to Johnson who was dominating and kept him under control for most of the rest of the match
Radelaide
Guest
Too many of their players are not 100% based on that I think the hawks will win.
Brian
Guest
Hill been in good form and will start. Pretty sure the sub will be Anderson, only other player I could think of is Shiels.
David
Guest
Do you think Hawthorn will have Hill as sub and start Jed Anderson? Jed is very hard, good in close and quick. I think Hill has been terrific for Hawthorn however their is a risk with Hill is that he will be matched with his more mature brother and he does not have the experience to overcome him. Anderson is a very good tackler, can jump for marks and was terrific in and around the packs against Geelong in the VFL grand final. Hill with his run and carry coming on later in the game when players tire would be very dangerous and if the game is tight could be a match winner.
Ads
Guest
one word will win it: Hunger. The Hawks are smarting from last year, have recent GF experience, play on the MCG regularly. Counts for a lot in this game. Hawks to win.
Australian Rules
Guest
I agree that Roughy will spend time in the middle. He has the best "screen" in the game. If Buddy leads up the field, Gunstan/Hale are the forward marking options, with Rioli, Breust, Puopolo and (insert sub) scavanging it within the arc. This will be a close GF.
David
Guest
Lets hope Luke does not chase Buddy up the ground Buddy will lead from 30 out to try and mark around 60 to 65 from goal leaving Hale Gunston Bailey Roughead inside 30. His choice is kick for goal from 60 to 65 (If he is on he may do this all day.) pass to a leading Rioli,,Breust Smith Hill closer to goal kick to the top of square to a big Hale Gunston Bailey Roughead Bailey will try to run forward against Sandillands. Bailey kicked 3 in first quarter against North. The Hawthorn forwards will run hard far and wide to test out Mcpharlin and Johnson injuries and match fitness . Plenty of grand finals have been lost by teams playing injured players and this game will have plenty of hard running by both sides.
Balthazar
Guest
Luke won't chase Franklin up the ground if it means leaving the defensive line exposed. Franklin'll have to face our surprisingly tall and mobile midfielders (e.g. Fyfe at 192cm with an awesome aerobic capacity). If need be, Sandi or Clarke will be loitering to take marks in defence
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Roughead is the one who needs to lift I reckon. Isn't McPharlin lame? Lance might run him out of the game. Probably just my ignorance but Hale, for a 202 massive unit, is a bit of a blouse.
Brian
Guest
Definately Gunston unless its 55m on an angle where I'd guess you would want Buddy taking it ala Crows 2007.