Why Hawthorn will win the AFL Grand Final

Get ready for another AFL Grand Final epic. This year’s decider pits together two teams that are poles apart yet both very, very capable.

Hawthorn will be desperate to avoid consecutive losing Grand Finals being part of their legacy. Fremantle are seeking to leave the first premiership-winning legacy in club history.

Hawthorn have been the dominant team of the home and away season. Fremantle have brought things together at precisely the right time.

Hawthorn are the league’s number one offence. Fremantle are the league’s number one defence, historically the more desirable title this time of year.

Hawthorn know what it’s like to play in Grand Finals. Fremantle are about to find out.

The first area to assess is the form guide. Both sides faced the same two teams to get to this point. The Hawks prevailed over Geelong and the Sydney Swans by a combined 59 points and Fremantle did so by 40.

However, it was the latter who looked more comfortable against both opponents and had more of the play on their terms.

It has been the latter who, after the impeccably-timed returns of Aaron Sandilands and Matthew Pavlich, have finished the year stronger.

Their pressure, on full show against the Swans last week, is a sight to behold and although All-Australian selection eluded all bar Michael Johnson, there are match-winners across the ground.

That they were able to take things easy late in the game last Saturday could be immensely beneficial to their match fitness too.

Still, the Hawks are not to be underestimated. In fact, they hold favouritism and deservedly so, for the Hawks have been the team most likely all year.

They’ve had just one loss of any true concern, a late-season slip against Richmond, and two losses against their now-avenged bogey side Geelong.

That avengement last week showed how the Hawks have added flexibility in the past 12 months.

Buddy Franklin, for example, made an impact beyond the scoreboard with six inside 50s – more than any Cat on the night and his best-ever record against them.

While Freo’s form has been the most alluring, the Hawks’ form – considering they beat Geelong for the first time in five years last Friday – can’t be all that bad either.

What we do know is that the Dockers, through Sandilands and Zac Clarke, will surely win the ruck battle.

They’re coming off getting 23 more hitouts than Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke, the previous number one duo in the comp, so it’s fair to say they will go alright.

From there, the big bodies of Nat Fyfe and David Mundy, along with Michael Barlow, are more than capable of winning their fair share of the footy. All three should be prominent.

That said, many footy watchers have seemingly declared the midfield battle Fremantle’s to lose. That would be a highly premature claim.

Hawthorn rank second in the comp for centre clearances per game. Fremantle rank second last.

Hawthorn average eight more inside 50s (ranking second) than Fremantle (ranking 15th) and are averaging 12 more in finals.

Sam Mitchell goes into the decider picking up three more effective disposals per game than anyone else from either side.

The counter to the Mitchell point is, of course, Ryan Crowley. He’s got a habit of eroding the impact of the opposition’s best midfielder.

There’s no doubt that, if Crowley gets the assignment, it will be one of the decisive match-ups.

That contest, like the midfield battle as a whole, will be an arm wrestle.

Overall, while there’s obviously a good chance the Dockers can pull ahead, it’s not as simple as some are suggesting because it’s quite likely that Hawthorn will still be able to get the ball forward more often.

What things then come down to is the quality of that ball. In another one of this game’s beautiful contrasts, Freo don’t mind winning ugly but the staple of Hawthorn’s game plan is kicking efficiency.

How many pundits have you heard in the last 12 months say the Hawks ‘dominated all the stats’ in last year’s Grand Final?

Well, there was one glaring exception to that – kicking efficiency, their bread and butter, which was only 53 percent compared to Sydney’s 66 percent.

It was the killer blow and it very nearly cost them again last week with their kicking in front of goal.

No wonder Ross Lyon on Thursday said this of his players: “If I’d ask them to do one thing, it would probably be kick straight.”

Fremantle’s pressure, and potentially the rain if it becomes a factor, is a genuine threat to an aspect of the Hawks’ game plan that has already proven itself vulnerable on the big stage.

If it does crumble, we might even see the game’s most efficient forward line (Buddy Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli et al) be outshone by the likes of Pavlich, Michael Walters and Chris Mayne at the other end.

It’s not inconceivable. In fact it could be likely. In Freo’s last five games against top eight opposition they’ve averaged 2.09 points per inside 50. Hawthorn are averaging 1.87.

In those same games Freo conceded just 1.66 points for each inside 50 they allowed, far less than Hawthorn’s rate of 1.93.

So while it’s true Franklin, Roughead and Rioli won’t have one goal between them like last week, it’s also true that the likes of Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and Zac Dawson form a formidable barrier to scoring.

All that said, the thought of Franklin on the game’s biggest stage once again is mouth-watering. A bit more accuracy and he’d have been a Norm Smith contender last year.

It’s also worth remembering the game plan has been tinkered since last year to avoid some of what went wrong 12 months ago.

What it will come down to, however, is where the game is placed at three-quarter time.

If Hawthorn are anything less than ten points up at the last change, Fremantle will win. If they can build a strong enough buffer, Hawthorn will win.

There’s a theory that the Hawks will be able to draw on last year’s loss should the game go down to the wire. You certainly suspect it will be in the back of a few minds.

Indeed, there’s historical evidence to back the theory up: Only two sides in the past 30 years have won a Grand Final after trailing at three quarter time.

Both of those teams (Essendon 1984 and Geelong 2009) had lost the big one the year before.

So it’s a real thing, this ‘righting a wrong’ motivational trigger. It’s just that, well, in this game, the side most prepared for a tight finish would have to be Fremantle.

The Dockers’ battle royal with the Cats took place three weeks ago. Since then, they’ve had the week off and a match against the Swans that was rarely if ever in doubt.

The Hawks are coming off a bruising and draining encounter that required a full four quarters of effort. Ominously, the same was true for them last year and also for Collingwood in 2011.

Even before the finals began, the Dockers were able to rest half their squad in Round 23 while the Hawks grinded their way to the minor premiership in Sydney.

Thus, the challenge for the Hawks simply has to be to get on top in the opening three terms.

West Coast 2006 are the precedent here. That year, like the Hawks, the Eagles had the tougher build-up and were minor premiers coming off a loss in the decider the year before.

In the 2006 Grand Final, they were the dominant side of the opening two quarters and held on in the third to remain just under two goals up. Even that was barely enough – they won by a point.

So, which way will it go? Can Hawthorn do enough early? Or can Fremantle tire them out?

The Dockers are worthy of the biggest stage, have a defensive mindset conducive to premierships and play disciplined team-first footy. They certainly know how to get under the skin of their opponents.

With stars like Pavlich, Fyfe and Sandilands, plus some of the best defensive players going around, they have a real chance to make history. No one can write them off.

But the Hawks have been here before and know what’s required. They need a strong start and, with their experience, can be expected to be less overawed in the early stages.

Once the nerves have settled, they will find it harder to play the game on their own terms but the likes of Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Grant Birchall, Franklin et al should find ways to generate opportunities. The cream will rise to the top.

The Hawks will have learnt some powerful lessons from last year’s defeat, too.

It might not help if they are chasing a deficit late in the game, but from the outset they would hate the idea of walking off the field defeated again and history says that’s something that will motivate.

For mine, if Hawthorn make the most of their inside 50s they should be up by three-four goals at three quarter time. That should be enough to hang on.

Tip: Hawthorn by five.