Now that season 2013 is done and dusted with the Roosters crowned champions I do what I do every year and start counting down until the middle of March next year.
As a punter I look at the early odds and see that some betting agencies have installed the Rabbitohs as favourites for season 2014.
Well I can save Souths fans the Ebay fees and the embarrassment of having to offload tickets to Roosters and Manly fans by telling them not to waste their time buying grand final tickets.
And stay away from the TAB.
For the last two seasons the Rabbitohs have been a dominant force throughout the season only to come up dreadfully short when the big bikkies are on the line. And with the squad they have there is no chance of that changing in 2014.
For a team to challenge for a title it needs balance, variety and most importantly they need a sustainable plan B if things are not working.
I am not sure who is in charge of recruitment at Souths but the way they have gone about it has left them with a team without these things and a team incapable of winning against big teams in big games.
Maybe it works in the Coliseum in the movies but not in the NRL.
They rely entirely on big forwards running over the advantage line, getting quick play the balls and then going again or having Isaac Luke jump out of dummy half.
The majority of Souths sets could be played on a ten metre-wide field.
This idea of fast play the balls on the back of a big forward run is part of every team’s plan, but in Souths case that plan is the beginning and the end of how they try to score points.
The main problem they have is that their centres and wingers are not up to it.
Not one of Dylan Farrell, Dylan Walker, Bryson Goodwin or Nathan Meritt would play first grade at any of the other seven finals teams, and I doubt there would be another team in the comp that would have room for all four.
How Nathan Merritt played Origin this season is one for the please explain file.
Maybe three or four years ago he should’ve been picked and wasn’t, so selectors making it up to him now.
He will create a Matt Bowen-style problem at Souths and we will see if they are strong enough to deal with it the way the Cowboys did.
They also lack the creativity needed to bust a game open.
While their forwards are big and fast and are expert at landing on elbows and knees they do not have anyone with the ability to create on the edge like a Glenn Stewart style player.
Their seven six and nine get plenty of raps and while they do have some great qualities they are not great ball players.
Against Manly when Luke ran from dummy half the defence just aimed up at him and shut him down.
In fact there were times when they appeared to set him up to run knowing he could be contained.
He is without doubt the fastest dummy half going around but when he runs you know that is all he is going to do.
Lately there is a move back to the kind of dummy half that can ball play and set things up like Cameron Smith, Jake Friend, Robbie Farah, Matt Ballin etc.
None would come near Luke for speed but all of them put the defence in two minds.
John Sutton and Adam Reynolds were being trumpeted as Origin players and would probably be effective at that level but their lack the play making ability was there for all to see.
Sutton is a big strong ball runner who can be hard to contain but again is easy to read and contain by a quality committed defensive line.
Reynolds has a great kicking game but lacks the guile to create real space for his outside men.
Both the Roosters and Souths scored a lot of close range tries in season 2013 but they had a difference, the Roosters tries were scored by players like Boyd Cordner, Aidan Guerra or Mitch Aubusson running into holes from a perfectly time pass from Mitch Pearce or James Maloney.
Souths tries were usually a result of Sam or George Burgess or Lima or Clarke or whoever getting the ball and battering their way over.
They still count four points but these are a lot easier to contain by a good defensive line-up.
Finally, Greg Inglis is a superstar. He is one of the best in the game no doubt but is he as good as he needs to be given the reliance Souths put on him?
I don’t like to bag a champion but I will use a cricketing term to describe GI.
I believe he is a “flat track bully”. In other words when conditions give him a slight advantage he grabs hold of the situation and turns it into a total mismatch.
However, when things are not going his way he does not always deliver the same quality.
In Origin this year he scored one try from a bomb, got up and beat his chest in front of the crowd and was not sighted again.
The main reason for this is that he had Josh Morris opposite him who is as big as he is and probably the best defensive outside back in the game.
All GI’s plays that I remember this year have been in games that Souths were easily winning.
I can hardly remember him making an impact in the finals.
The only exception to this is when he pushed Sonny Bill Williams off in the Round 26 game but after that he was hardly sighted in attack.
Souths rely so much on him that they cannot afford him to have a quiet game and as good as he is he cannot carry the team.
In the finals they beat Melbourne and had Manly down 14 nil but in both cases this was gifted to them by a poor opposition.
Manly started the game in a nightmare but turned it around, Melbourne did not.
The big issue now at Souths is that the premiership window is open but through poor recruiting they may not get a chance to get through it.
They have spent a lot of salary cap on their forward pack but they have no variety and their backs are not first grade standard.
That they spent even more money on Ben Teo and Lima for this year only made the situation worse.
Dylan Farrell is leaving but they have only signed Joel Reddy, good solid player but not going to set the world on fire.
During the Round 26 clash there was the big sign in the burrow “scum forever in our shadow”. Sitting in seats purchased from a Souths supporter, the return sentiment was “call us what you want but we will be forever sitting in your seats on grand final day”!
ron bugeja
Guest
ALL THE EXPERTS THAT KNOW IT ALL AND FOR TONY VICKERY WE WILL SEE ABOUT SOUTHS IN 2014,SICK OF ALL YOU KNOW ALL ABOUT WHOES IN OR OUT
Paul
Guest
Not far from the truth however its the Rabbits (and everyone elses excluding the Roosters) who cannot sign more than one quality player in an offseason that is slowing their momentum. The Roosters signed O'Donnell a former test player and there was no minimum 400k restriction placed on him like their was Folau. Sonny signed on a handshake deal, had a club lawyer side step his non accredited agent, got to play a rival code in the offseason after his handshake deal and funny enough must not have signed a revised reduced bout contract that would of put his boxing earnings on the Roosters salary cap. Dodgiest deal in NRL history but no surprise considering Jennings was signed on one of those backend that everyone forgets deals to hand them their third test player in one offseason to go with the fringe NSW player Maloney who took more money than Souths offered him to sign with the tri-colours, the same with Hargreaves who was offered a fortune to leave for Redfern. The only limitation on the Red and Green is the life member of the Roosters who has been pretending to represent the NRL. It sure pays to have the major sponsor, scheduler and ruler of the code as a former board member as well in Gyngell. Enjoy your Xmas hamper courtesy of Channel Nine you biased twit. The NRL proved in 2013 its the easiest competition to buy if you are via Bondi.
Andrew Brand
Guest
I think with Keary at 5/8 snd Sutton in the centre's. Teach Issac Luke how to kick properly. Find someone to smack Sammy Burgess on the back of the head when required, you need to think smart Sam, think think think...the feam is there to do it. I also think that Issac Luke has now been there long enough to know what's going on, you need to start taking control of the game buddy.In defense, the wingers need to have MORE FAITH IN THEIR INSIDE MEN. Love watching you guys play. Step up next year and the title will be ours.
Clem
Guest
So let's get this straight two year running the finish top four then top two and now they are no chance......please wake up. It must be fun death riding Souths but jealousy does that doesn't it.
Rob
Guest
Tony you're obviously a Manly supporter but to say that any team cannot win next season is a bunch of bs... Every team has the possibility of lifting the trophy at season... You don't want be eating humblE pie at the end of 2014 season... Good Luck
Mike from tari
Guest
If "Sammy Boyle " not got white line fever a few times, the finals may have been a different story, if he starts getting rid of this Souths will be good for next year, but they do need a centre.
Bunny Lord
Guest
Agreed.
Bunny Lord
Guest
Agreed. Bring on 2014!
Bunny Lord
Guest
No truer words were spoken.
Bunny Lord
Guest
Agreed. Remember the match against Manly at Brookie? That was probably our best performance of the season, and our defence was truly remarkable. Especially Goodwin. He shut down Jamie Lyon on practically every occasion.
Michael 61 Bunnies
Guest
Interesting take, you have, on a team that is not even finalised for 2014. Let's break it down, as you have. GI. Awesome powerhouse guardian, hence fullback of the year award. He played the back half of the season injured. Perhaps he shouldn't have returned when he did, & he lost some of his running game, but in defense... magnificent. Sutton. Again injured in the second half of the season. At one point he was ruled out til the finals, but he came back. Like GI he was probably down on confidence, as anyone would be after that injury. He has blossomed next to Renyolds this year. The backline. Champion injured, King injured,Walker awesome, Farrell very good, Goodwin outstanding, Merritt needed more ball, Hunt out of form, same with Everingham. If you put that same senerio to any other team, their backline would also faulter. If Cronk & Slater were taken out of Melb, they would not be as potent, as if you took out Minichello & Meloney. It should be remembered that Souths led the pack for most of the season by using a range of skils, like Renyolds kicking, Sutton running to the line, the forwards going forward ( how often have I heard a halfback thank the pack for "laying the platform"?). Souths were one of the best at getting line dropouts by using their kicking game & their excellent chasing. Their online defence was second to none. If they can secure Hoppa, who looks like not going to Parra in 2014, that will bolster their backline, now that King is gone. McQueen is ready to step up to replace Roy & the Burgess clan will be better for the season. All in all..... I will still be buying my GF tickets early because 2012 & 13 was just the pre-dawn light. 2014 will be the year it all falls into place.
maborlz
Guest
Article is brutal but as honest as my hilux. So if you Dont like it drive the great wall thingy.
Benny
Guest
Roosters will only get ferguson if sbw leaves
Brendan
Guest
A couple of injuries to the bunnies or any other team can change the whole complexion of the competition. The Roosters deserve to be favourites for next year but if SBW leaves and Maloney cops a bad injury, they are suddenly a different team. Manly and Melb have ageing rosters and we have seen the amount of injuries some players get as they near the tail end of their career increase dramatically.
Deborah Muirhead
Guest
We will prevail, and will get better and better.
Deborah Muirhead
Guest
I have been supporting Souths since I was 12 years old and went to their last Grand Final win. Though I was not happy with this years result I will continue to support my Bunnies though thick and thin. Our turn will come! Come on boys prove me right!
JARUSKA sOLYOVA
Guest
How very disturbing...No true sportsman and a person of integrity would write such a negative, manipulative, one sided myopic article mixing movie business with rugby!!! It's good to keep in mind that Karma comes back...
Nasals
Guest
As a Roosters supporter I would have preferred Souths make the GF, I still cannot believe they lost that game to Manly but I think they were exposed in the centres and wings, that is where they lost it. Also the kicking game of Reynolds and Sutton was very poor that game, hopefully they will learn from that and get better next year. After the Roosters-Manly GF it was apparent that Manly were the second best team of the year, they had a good forward pack, great halves and weapons in the backs.
A View From the Top
Roar Pro
Dylan Walker will play for Australia, I think most will agree he goes alright for an 18 year old playing in the toughest defensive position at NRL level. As I get older I begin to appreciate 'first past the post' competitions or playoff series' a little more. Souths panicked and lost a prelim final this year, the year before they lost their half and were lost. Maybe something similar will happen next year or maybe it won't. Kudos to you for the article though, I doubt a similarly titled article of any of the other 15 sides would get a fraction of the response
Phil Coorey
Roar Pro
They said the Red Sox were no chance this year either - and we have the prediction models to prove it. So forgive me if I take this article with a grain of salt , Keary will be 5/8 next year and the team will have a different feel to it. Greg Inglis was pretty hurt as well, god knows why he is even allowed to play for the Kangaroos