Since its modern day inception in 1991, the AFL All-Australian team has been a recurring source of debate for football followers everywhere.
Some footy fans feel aggrieved whenever their particular club’s star players miss the cut.
Clubs that have had modest years at best have been known to have two or three representatives, while clubs that have made the finals have sometimes had no representatives at all.
This can lead some fans to suggest that the All-Australian selectors are unfairly overlooking their club’s players.
In theory, over time, such anomalies should even out.
In 2005 for example, Hawthorn had three representatives in the All-Australian team despite winning only five games. Yet in the first All-Australian team in 1991 Hawthorn had no representatives, despite winning 16 games and going on to win the premiership.
But is this the case for every team?
The list below shows the average number of All-Australian representatives each club has had per season since 1991, and their average winning percentage per home-and-away season over the same period.
Theoretically, clubs that have higher average winning percentages should have higher average numbers of All-Australian representatives.
Of course there are some reasons, apart from selection ‘bias’, why this might not hold, which we’ll get into further below.
Geelong: 56 All-Australian selections, 2.43 AA selections per year, 64.3 average winning percentage in H&A seasons
West Coast: 44, 1.91, 56.4
St Kilda: 43, 1.87, 51.3
Adelaide: 40, 1.74, 52.7
Carlton: 38 , 1.65, 48.9
Collingwood: 35, 1.52, 53.8
Sydney: 32, 1.39, 50.4
Western Bulldogs: 32, 1.39, 49.8
Hawthorn: 31, 1.35, 54.1
Port Adelaide: 20, 1.18, 50.7
Essendon: 26, 1.13, 55.0
Brisbane: 25, 1.09, 46.7
North Melbourne: 24, 1.04, 54.9
Gold Coast: 3, 1.00, 21.2
Fremantle: 13, 0.68, 43.4
Melbourne: 15, 0.65, 39.3
Richmond: 15, 0.65, 41.8
Greater Western Sydney: 1, 0.50, 6.8
Fitzroy: 3, 0.50, 24.2
Based on the list above, Adelaide, Carlton and St Kilda appear to have a much higher average number of representatives in the All-Australian team than their win-loss records would suggest, and look to have been over-represented.
This becomes clearer if you graph each team’s average number of representatives against its average winning percentage. I have discounted those teams that have not played enough seasons for their figures to be meaningful.
On the other hand, Essendon and North Melbourne appear to have been significantly under-represented.
Although a club can be over-represented or under-represented in the All-Australian team based purely on their winning percentage, there could be other factors at work here.
For example, clubs that look to be over-represented may have been uneven, in that the differences between their best player(s) and other players have been greater than for other clubs – a current example would be Gold Coast).
Similarly, clubs that look to be under-represented may have been more even in terms of their playing talent.
Alternatively, clubs may have over-achieved or under-achieved given the talent on their list.
Then again, maybe the All-Australian selectors have just really liked Carlton and Adelaide?
Of course, there is no guarantee that such patterns will continue. When I looked at this topic back in 2006, Geelong and Port Adelaide had been under-represented to that point, and Sydney had been over-represented.
In the very long run, perhaps all that fans will really have to feel aggrieved about if their players consistently miss out is the inability of their clubs to win enough games.
Francis Curro
Roar Pro
I agree Crowley was snubbed the last few seasons. The AA selectors just seem to 'throw' midfielders in places where they can't find other players. In recent years, they have placed midfielders in both halfback and both half forward flanks. I am not doubting the reason why the shouldn't be there, but they should select players in traditional positions. I am a Port supporter, and I was glad to have two players int eh AA team this season after none since 07. And how was Buddy in the AA squad this year, he played three good games and was NOT on Mike Sheehans top 50 players list.
Johnno
Guest
Hey I'm not just 'this guy' I'm trying to be the voice of reason here.
supergoal
Guest
Wait, are you a Geelong supporter? It says you're from Geelong but you're agreeing with this guy. I'm confused
Ash of Geelong
Guest
Well said Johnno !
Troy
Guest
Yes, Brisbane cashed in on flags during their peak period from 1999 to 2004; either side of that period they have generally struggled, except for a couple of good seasons.
Johnno
Guest
How Cameron Mooney became an All-Australian is beyond me. Cameron Ling as well. You have muppets like those guys taking up a spot in the best 22 players in Australia for that year and it's no wonder why Geelong are way way out in front. They aren't star players. Brisbane had more star players at their peak. Port had better players in the early 00's. Sydney had equivalant players in the mid 00's. Even players like Cameron Bruce when he played at Melbourne would do enough to keep the club performing reasonably well despite a continuous slide down towards the bottom of the ladder and he was never granted All-Australian credentials despite there being a strong case for it for at least two seasons. Andrew Mackie? How did he get a go? When players like Nat Fyfe don't? They should change the way the team is selected. Every coach of an AFL club should vote for each position from a list of nominated players for each position. The only catch - they can't vote for players on their own team. This way it becomes a team picked out of respect for how hard it is for every club to match up and try to play against each of these players. Cameron Mooney... give me a break...
Brian
Guest
Shows how bad Melbourne have been for over 20 years. Their 39.3% is 2.5% below Richmond. Brisbane have done well 3 flags with just 46.7% compared to St Kilda at 51.3% without a flag.
doubledutch
Roar Pro
The funny think about the all Australian team is you wouldn't actually field it even if there was another team to play. The All Australian team is another midfielders award and when the selectors can't decide on the mid field, they just throw all the remaining great midfielders onto the half forward flanks, forward pockets, back pockets and the half back line. If they still need a few more (which they always do) they throw 4 midfielders onto the bench.
Samual Johnson
Guest
All Australian honours are for players to reflect on when they retire. Club supporters should not really be bothered with the whole thing, team success is all that matters.
Miles Wilks
Roar Rookie
Interesting analysis Troy. There is a case for arguing throwing the All-Australian panel open to a wider panel (thereby eliminating bias) or alternatively letting the supporters/fans choose the initial squad and then having the final squad chosen by a larger panel than what they have now. The tagger is an important position in football these days - yet the tagger seems to be consistently overlooked in All-Australian squads. I would presume that if the supporters had a say in voting (even if just on an initial squad) a player such as Ryan Crowley would have been chosen in the squad, yet for the All-Australian selectors they consistently overlook taggers.