Assessing the Northern Hemisphere teams: Wales

Tane, unfortunately Fourie du Preez isn't going to tour the UK and France. But JP Pietersen will, I believe.

As I was saying...

Actually, I like Wales, the country, Wales the team, I am Welsh in origin, and I love it when Wales is great in rugby. Wales is a rugby mecca. Wales has struggled to beat the Boks. It's happened once. I think Wales has beaten NZ four times. I don't know all the reasons for that. My theory is that mismatches are the key to rugby at a high level: creating and avoiding them. And maybe Wales and SA are too similar? Don't know. But I don't see the current Welsh backline as waltzing into the corresponding SA positions, except for Halfpenny. What's the logic for North being a better wing than Habana? And he's the top Welsh threat. At flyhalf, Wales is in even worse shape than SA! At scrumhalf, Pienaar has been tested in the Celtic and European leagues and been tops. And no South African I know really thinks Pienaar is our best. In the midfield, not many teams would bench Jean de Villiers. Even NZ media rate him tops. JP Pietersen and Willie le Roux are streets more inventive than Cuthbert. The only arguing point is Davies vs. Engelbrecht. Physically, it's not contest. JJ is more agile, faster for sure, and stronger. Defensively, I thought Davies was the Lions' weak link (let in AAC's try, for instance). But neither are great, really. Jaque Fourie will return next year and I don't think anyone would pick Davies over Fourie.

Harry, That's because you are one eyed Bok fan, not really based on any logic whatsoever. Btw fellas, watch out for Scott Williams playing at 12 instead of Roberts. He plays with Davies at the Scarlets and Wales won't be missing a huge amount with him playing at all.

If you go back and skim the reviews of the Lions series on BBC, the Telegraph, the Daily Mirror, the UK Independent, Wales Online, the Irish Times, the Scotsman, and the Times of London, as I just did, you'll see "immense" and "splendid" and "legendary" and "epic" and "colossal" and "anything is now possible" and "bring on NZ" and "greatness" and "finally, we are more than just power" and "case closed" and "nothing is stopping us now." And all they'd done was sneak a win, then lose, then win well, in Australia. NZ and SA do that all the time. The press from SANZAR is actually brutal and unimpressed; no blind loyalists. It's not arrogance. In almost a century of contests, Wales has beaten SA once. And this SA squad dispatched Australia with more ease than the Lions, a Wales team with all its holes filled by someone better than Wales has now. Calling Ellis Park a "rout" causes me to doubt your powers of observation.

@ Harry Jones "" Davies is overrated. "" hmmm is that why he was chosen ahead of God , I mean BOD , in the Lions team ??? anyway now that roberts and Cuthbert are out, Tane will have to revise his assumptions :)

Well Imagine Wales playing NZ with SB Williams and TN Williams also :) commentators wont get 10 words in

Tane: There's not one Welsh back I'd start ahead of Bok incumbent, except for Halfpenny at 15 (but when Frans Steyn is healthy, I'd have him ahead of Halfpenny). North and Folau were equal. Habana ran around Folau; works harder. Roberts does not have any edge on Jean de Villiers; and JdV brings a lot more defensive nous. Davies is overrated. Phillips is now a plodder. In the pack, however, if they were Saffas, I'd pick Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones, Lydiate, and Warburton in my Box XXIII. They are all top class.

Wales named their squad. They went 0-4 last year, at home, against the SH. I wonder if they can improve? Their backs are Rhodri Williams (Scarlets), Mike Phillips (Bayonne/FRA), Lloyd Williams (Cardiff Blues), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Patchell (Cardiff Blues), Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Jon Davies (Scarlets), Ashley Beck (Ospreys), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Cory Allen (Cardiff Blues), Owen Williams (Cardiff Blues), James Hook (Perpignan/FRA), George North (Northampton/ENG), Eli Walker (Ospreys), Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues), Liam Williams (Scarlets). Of those, Halfpenny, Phillips, Hook, and North could crack the SA squad of 36. Halfpenny could start for the Boks. Hook and North, maybe. Not Phillips. The Welsh forwards are Scott Andrews (Cardiff Blues), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Aaron Jarvis (Ospreys), Paul James (Bath/ENG), Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Ryan Bevington (Ospreys), Richard Hibbard (Ospreys), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Emyr Phillips (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Perpignan/FRA), Ian Evans (Ospreys), Bradley Davies (Cardiff Blues), Andrew Coombs (Dragons), Ryan Jones (Ospreys), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Sam Warburton (capt, Cardiff Blues), Toby Faletau (Dragons), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro/FRA). Adam Jones would start for the Boks. Alun Wyn Jones would be a good lock partner for Etzebeth. Lydiate tackles like a Saffa. Warburton is a smart player and would add to any team. On paper, it's not really close, but in Cardiff, it'll always be close for at least 50 minutes. Might even come down to who makes their kicks. You'd be a fool to bet against Halfpenny in that sort of contest.

Tane, mate you speak your mind, nithing wrong with that. I have been disappointed too many times in Europe to be too confident, I am hoping Meyer only experiments a little with selectins but go out there to continue the growth of our game plan. We'll have to wait and see. ;)

Kibz they are downright scarey at home. Away they ave a scoreline of 19-18 under Meyer. NZ ave 36-20 away over the same period.

Biltong you are right and it isnt played on paper. Otherwise NZ would never lose to SA :-P. As I said in my first post, Wales should beat Australia but they have managed to lose a lot of games they should have won. I know you want me to say SA will win and if I did you would accept it without question but I dont think SA will win. Although I wasnt aware that its the Welsh teams first game and that could be a major factor. Is du Preez in the squad?

Firstly, I'm pretty sure I didn't see any headlines with your initial statement. And I don't know how SH fans (especially SA fans) have any right in making comments about the NH media given the ridiculousness, arrogance and ignorance of their own writers. Secondly, look at the results of Australia v Argentina last season. Thirdly, look at your own arrogance - 'they’ll need to do everything perfectly to beat SA, and hope for SA to have trouble at set piece or with the ref or on the kicking tee.' Since 2010 SA have beaten Wales by 1, 4 and 3 points respectively. You're coming across as wildly optimistic seeing as in your last game you were basically routed.

Wales haven't played a test match in months....so you can't really use form as a reason. domestic performance is a result of combinations that have been worked for a couple of months. That said Wales should beat Aus at home. But the player comparison above doesn't take into account the fact that the Boks have been immensely physical and have played an open and expansive game. They are downright scary right now. Boks by 9, Aus lose a tight game.

Good thing it is your paper and we aren't playing on it, eh?

Well they should beat Australia because they are a better team than Australia, are at home and are in better form. Against SA I think Wales will win because they are a very good team playing at home and SA has only scraped by in the majority of its tests in Brit over the last 3 years. The ave score against Wal, Eng, Sco and Ire since 2010 is 22-18. That tells me they struggle to play their best there. Everyone thinks SA is so much better than Wales or the other NH teams but its untrue. Beast vs Jenkins. Winner Beast. Biz/Strauss vs Hibbard. Biz/Strauss. du Plessis vs Jones. Jones. Etzebeth vs Evans. Etzebeth. van der Merve vs Wynn Jones. Wynn Jones. Alberts vs Lydiate. Lydiate (close). Louw vs Warburton. Draw. Vermulen vs Faletau. Faletau. ?????? vs Phillips. ??????? Steyn vs Biggar. Steyn. Habana vs North. North (close). de Villiers vs Roberts. Draw. Englebrecht vs Davies. Davies. le Roux vs Cuthbert. le Roux (close). Kirchner vs Halfpenny. Halfpenny. You may think Im crazy but imo a full strength Wales starting 15 is just as good as a full strength SA 15 on paper.

you are wrong on both counts. SH teams have little time together too during the june internationals and are more successful. Gatland has taken Wales to multiple 6N titles and WC semi finals. He is rated the best coach since the 70s

The Lions' triumph over OZ; hailed at the time by the breathless UK press as evidence the NH had caught up to the SH, after the ease with which NZ/SA dispatched the Wallabies (and how close ARG came to replicating the Lions in Test 1), looks like a bunch of hot air. Wales is not a weak team, but they'll need to do everything perfectly to beat SA, and hope for SA to have trouble at set piece or with the ref or on the kicking tee.