Without a doubt in my mind, I predict Australia, England, New Zealand and Tonga will be the final four teams standing after 14 nations give their all in the Rugby League World Cup, which kicks off in Cardiff this weekend.
There may be some hiccups in the coming month, but these are the most powerful and best skilled line-ups on show and The Wizard cannot see them bowing out before the semis.
Whether you are an ardent rugby league follower or casual observer, this tournament is going to be big, probably bigger than many suspect.
Hosted by the United Kingdom, organisers are confidently predicting great crowds and non-stop action as league showcases its stars from both hemispheres.
The cynics will undoubtedly scoff at the legitimacy of teams fielded by the likes of Italy, USA and the Cook Islands, but the players representing these nations are as proud as any of their opponents and will be eager to press their claims on the big stage.
OK, there might be some blowout scores along the way but so what? Soccer and rugby union have their own World Cups and the powerhouses often hand out football lessons to the so-called minnows.
I am pumped at the prospect of what we’ll be seeing from the code’s big guns and just as excited over what we might see from the emerging nations.
Last week’s friendlies tossed up amazing wins by Italy and the USA over England and France respectively.
I realise they were ‘trials’ and there wasn’t anything on the line, but no nation welcomes embarrassment going into a major sports event.
England’s loss to the Italians was puzzling, as coach Steve McNamara had the bulk of his team on the park.
OK, the conditions were pretty ordinary but the Poms play in this stuff week in, week out, and I was very surprised they managed only 14 points.
I guess they had their eyes on this week’s opener against the Aussies and didn’t want to pick up any major injuries.
Anyway, good luck to Anthony Minichiello and his Italians. They wanted that game more than the opposition and performed accordingly.
Australia v England shapes as a tremendous contest. This should be a memorable forwards battle and I am eagerly awaiting to see the Burgess boys combining for England.
They were sensational in the NRL this year and it will be fascinating to see if they can transfer that momentum and experience to the international level.
There won’t be much in this but I’m leaning towards a Kangaroos win. They look to have more points in their backline.
Naturally, I am picking the Kiwis to open their World Cup campaign with a convincing win over Samoa at Warrington on Sunday.
This game will be an 80-minute bruiser but I like the New Zealand squad a lot and their strength and class will see them cut a swathe through all of their Group B opponents.
Sonny Bill Williams will definitely provide Steve Kearney’s team with an X-factor like no other.
The big guy wants to do what he can to help the Kiwis defend their World Cup title and I honestly think they will do it with SBW the spearhead.
Tonga appeals to me as one of the likely stars of the World Cup.
Not only are they highly physical, there is a high degree of skill from the likes of Epalahame Lauaki that will take plenty of stopping.
I fancy them to bowl over Scotland and Italy and ultimately shape up to New Zealand in the semis.
Only one referee will be on duty in these World Cup games. This could present some problems for the Australian whistle-blowers, who have grown used to the two-ref system in the NRL.
I suspect they will have their hands full concentrating on policing the 10 metres. That means all manner of strife could happen at the ruck area – some players might get away with more than they ever dreamed.
Anyway, let’s hope the World Cup chatter and news is about the football, the athletes and not the officials.
I am really looking forward to a wonderful month of rugby league.
Sadly, The Wiz is stuck here in Australia but I swear I will not miss a single game.
rlwc 007
Guest
excellent article. I am looking foward to seeing how the kumuls progress, with so much local raw talent in the team with experience players to back them up with a coaching staff headed by Adrian Lam and Mal Meninga. Group B should be very exciting ! Kumuls players to watch: Menzie Yere, Nene McDonald, Wellington Albert, and Jessie Joe Nandye
russell johnson
Guest
What a good article! well thought out and based upon real and logical assumptions. The cynics you refer to seem to be in three main categories: the disenchanted Leaguies who are never happy if they aren't moaning, the downright 15ners who seem to loiter on every league corner like teenagers with nothing to on a Saturday night except throw stones, and the inbetweeners who for some reason best known to themselves, seem to allow the 15ners to talk rubbish and get away with it! So when you say critics it really only means a cross section of Mr Angries from Bondi and some of whom have only ill will towards RL. Its quite incredible, you would imagine that RL had spent over a century belittling and discriminating against ru instead of the other way round! However, it is time to say these really aren't the people we need to take any notice of when defining OUR World Cup! "Brave men rejoice in adversity, just as brave soldiers triumph in war." TGG k and c "Make haste from Babylon!"
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Jack I wrote a summary on the WC last week and commented about Moa being a plus for the Kiwis in fact have rated the Kiwis pack the best in the world. The above was a typo, give me a break! I can assure you that my final ratings are done after I have 100% knowledge of the run on 13 and the bench from my UK network and 2 1st coaches in the UK. I have never seen a WC like this, should be awesome.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Epi I am a big fan of Junior Paulo but I think Cook Islands will beat them by 20.
Dr Yes
Guest
The initial philospy is to keep a fair standard - so tightening qualification to 14 teams. They could have had 2 groups of 4 (with 2 progressing) plus two groups of 3 (with 2 progressing). That would have probably meant distributing the top 8 ranked across the groups, to give them chances to progress. But they wouldn't have been equal chances - some would gain advantage from smaller groups. i.e. less balanced re team rankings and chances. The current setup has the rankings spread: A: Aus (1) Eng (3) Fiji (7), Ireland (9) (average rank 5, 3 progress) B: NZ (2) France (4) PNG (6), Samoa (8) (average rank 5, 3 progress) C: Tonga (10) Scotland (11) Italy (13) (average rank 11, 1 progresses) D: Wales (5) USA (12) Cook Islands (18) (average rank 11, 1 progresses) Next: A1 v D1 B2 v A3 (winners meet in SF) (1 v 5??) (4 v 7??) B1 v C1 A2 v B3 (ditto) (2 v 10??) (3 v 6??) So while C & D are of similar level, they next come up against 2 of the best. They get advantage at group level, but a tough game to make the semis. There's method to the madness. Considering the unbalanced number '14' - quite fair. Even though Ireland and Samoa might not agree - they can still progress if they make top 3/4 in group, with teams ranked between 2-6 above them. Ireland have 3 of the top 7 in their group (not 5); they're rated 9, but they have an advantage that 3 will progress. From A & B, even the third finishing teams have a great chance to make the semis. Draw will give good contests and encourage interest & growth - very important, as is having deserving teams in the semi-finals & final. Can't wait to see NZ, PNG, Wales, Italy, US, Samoa and Tonga play. Even the lowest rating Cook Islands have guns in Dylan Napa (ask Gallen about him), Zeb Taia (ex-Kiwi back rower), five eigth Isaac John, Drury Low (Ben Barba fill-in), and 193cm 105kg centre Brad Takairangi. Wales, Samoa & Ireland have members of premiers Wigan Warriors. NZ, Tonga, Italy & Cook Islands have members of premiers Syd Roosters. Tonga, Scotland, Ireland & NZ have members of Cup Champions Hull KR and/or NRL runners-up Manly Sea-Eagles.
Dr Yes
Guest
Great read, Wiz. I agree. In defence of a couple of players mentioned - the official RLWC site is out-of-date on the Tonga team page. Lists Moa & Lauaki as 2 of the 3 selected Tongan stars. Obviously pre-dates squad selection.
eagleJack
Guest
Irrespective of whether Moa being in or out will affect Tonga's "rating", I would hope that the guy who is doing the "ratings" would know which players are in a particular squad. Just a friendly tip.
Epiquin
Guest
Woodi. Obviously I wouldn't put the company payroll on they yanks to bag the trophy. But I reckon we'll see them rattle a few of the bigger kids on the playground. They won't leave the UK as champs, but I think we'll all be wondering what hit us.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
al No shoulder charges allowed.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
eagleJack Happy for u to have a crack but have some substance if you will. That was NOT my side it was the one they had in their last Test I think. Moa in or out does NOT change their ratings. It should be 100% in 3 teams and every other team would take up less than 1% of the market. The guy that is relevant to game 1 is Foster. he is the organiser.
Rob G.
Guest
Ahhh the ridiculousness of international rugby league. Play for Somoa on Monday, New Zealand Wednesday, Australia Friday then when you're not good enough anymore why not use the grandparent rule and pull on an Italian jersey.
al
Guest
Are shoulder charges allowed in the World Cup or will it be a boring wrestling fest? (Two men holding the ball carrier, third man smashing the legs)...
Dave the Yank
Guest
You may want to have this chat with the 1980 Russian men's ice hockey team. They might have a slightly differ opinion about being assured a victory over an ameteur team.
Dave the Yank
Guest
Don't worry James. The mighty Tomahawks will sort the Welsh out. Of course they will also sort the Cook Islands out.
The eye
Guest
Thanks anyway,Scott..the side I saw had Konrad Hurrell included..and Daniel Tupou..AND Jorge T.?Thats a pretty big backline..
Elijah Weightman
Roar Guru
Nice read Wiz, great to see mass excitement for the Cup. Can't wait for the weekend, I'm going to try and watch every game live.
eagleJack
Guest
Of course the USA have no chance of winning it. But I wouldn't be pushing your "ratings" too strongly considering you put up a Tongan side above consisting of a guy with a broken neck, and mentioned you think Moa will start when he is actually in the Kiwi squad.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hene I think this was their last Test side. I agree about a worker. They have an excellent spine if Foster is ok.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Epi I have rated the Septics 1,000/1. They would have been millions but my ratings only goes to 1,000.
Martin Liri
Guest
Hi Mr Rayner How can I file a piece for the Roar regarding the announcement today that PNG will field a team in next year's Intrust Super Cup competition. I sent a piece focusing on PNG hoping to get some players into English competitions following the World Cup. Any feedbacks would be welcome. Thanks Martin