The trade period is always full of its shocks and surprises. A time when we see some of our favourite players hang up the boots of their club and walk into the welcoming arms of their rivals.
Most of the time we know weeks in advance what clubs the players are linked to, but sometimes there’s a move that no one sees coming.
The stage looked set for Buddy Franklin to begin his 2014 campaign as a Giant but he was stolen from under the noses of GWS by the Sydney Swans.
The thought of Buddy playing up on the forward line with the likes of Jeremy Cameron and John Patton, as well as likely number one draftee Tom Boyd was more than just exciting.
Seeing him don the black and orange and running out onto Skoda Stadium to sell-out crowds was the beginning of a new era for the fledging AFL club trying to stamp its position in the NRL-dominated Western Sydney.
However it was not meant to be.
With a move that shook the whole AFL community, as well as raising eyebrows yet again on the issue of the COLA given to the Sydney teams, the Swans swooped in with a mind-blowing lucrative deal that was kept completely under ropes for almost a year.
Before we knew it Buddy was a Swan and the Giants were left scratching their heads trying to figure what had just happened.
They lost the star that had been linked to moving to the struggling club all year. All their plans for the off season had to be rethought.
Yet out of the shadows of the subsiding disappointment came new revelations.
The Swans have blown a very large portion of their salary cap yet again after securing star forward Kurt Tippet during last year’s free agency period.
And now with room running out on the Swans roster to keep their many stars, some players are already beginning to be offloaded.
The Giants have already picked up premiership winning ruckman Shane Mumford who will provide a massive improvement to the control and structure of their game.
However this is just the start of a nine-year deal. Talented young forward Jed Lamb is on his way to leaving the Swans and cross the bridge to be the second player this year to join the Giants.
Sydney have been unable to offer him a new contract worthy of his developing talent, and it has been realised that it may be easier to lure players from the Swans then try and convince players to make the move interstate to join the club.
It was a huge blow losing Buddy Franklin, but by backing out when the price got too high, GWS made the right choice and have now placed themselves in a surprisingly good position.
With each year Franklin’s payments increase.
Therefore, it could be that each year more Swans are squeezed out of the roster, and where better to go than down the road to their up and coming young rivals who are cashed up and always on the hunt for proven talent.
So not securing star forward Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin might have been a blessing in disguise.
Their loss of one of the games biggest stars may instead build the path to bringing in more and more talent from the big city to the outer suburbs.
It’s going to be a long nine years for the Swans, but for GWS it’s going to be the gift that keeps on giving.
Jeff
Guest
Ian, your absolutely correct on this. With 18 teams the AFL would like each team to win once every 18 years. The Swans have a couple over the past several years and don't want to wait 18 years for the next. If they can pick up another in the next 3-4 years that's a huge bonus and once the Franklin burden is lifted from their salary cap they will have funds available for another champ. There's good logic in their strategy to try and get 2 maybe 3 premierships in the next 18 years and keep ahead of the pack.
Jeff
Guest
Melbourne have had 2 bad years! No comparison with GC who were a start up team. If GC were to now go and have 2 years like 2011-2012 I would agree but here was a lot of tolerance there - PLUS - Gary Ablett. Not a bad compensating factor. Contrary to Ctar, GWS do have a harder market and will have to do significantly better to lift their market share. Their new recruits will help in the win/loss ratio. Franklin would have been good PR value for a year or 2 but by not having Franklin they are in a lot better position for 2015-2020.
b Deacon
Guest
We already do - seen Cameron play?
Matt F
Roar Guru
Yeah history has certainly been rewritten with that statement. GWS' ownl twitter account made it clear that GWS "withdrew" their offer only after Buddy had already informed them that he'd accepted the offer from the Swans.
Jeff
Guest
Maybe I'm the Prophet of Doom. The signs will be clear in the first half of next year. It's not just the quality of the players lost, but the extra year on everyone else - especially the older group who carry the bulk of the centre-line. This will impact significantly plus their depth is shallowed-out by the above mentioned player losses.
Penster
Guest
Buddy would have been excellent for GWS if he'd chosen to step up, but he's too selfish and probably no leader aka Gary Ablett to take on the higher duties and responsibilities that GWS would entail. Buddy wanted the "just add water" team that is Sydney, another chance at premiership without having to do anymore than he currently does, and the glamour of a local Bondi lifestyle without having to schlepp 45mins to and from training every day.
Johan
Guest
I believe that both the Giants and Suns will be fine but we need to be patient and not have unrealistic expectations. The Giants have not been able to buy instant success like the western sydney soccer club as they couldn't bring ready made AFL playing in from overseas which is largely what the soccer club did. The Giants had to take a more medium to long term view and had a young team with a lot of potential but which has struggled against seasoned AFL players in the league. Next season the Giants should be a lot more competitive which will boost crowd numbers. No-one likes going to the game if the result is a huge loss every week. The Suns have a much smaller population to draw fans from but do have the advantage of being an area where many pensioners from the southern AFL states have moved to. The AFL needs to view both teams as 20 year ventures before any judgements about whether they have been successful can be sensibly made. The next two expanson teams should definitely be in AFL States though - Tassie and a third for Perth for mine.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Ctar - "if the suns have a few really bad years then it could mean trouble". Mate what do you think 2011 and 2012 were? Good years for the Suns? They were getting pumped every other week, yet they still managed a solid 12-13K attendance. Next year they are expected to improve once again and I would not put it past the club to be averaging around the 15K mark. It will be a whole different ball game when they reach the finals. There is a lot of footy played in SEQ and on the Gold Coast, there is absolutely no way known that the GC is a tougher market to sell the game than Western Sydney. That comment is total rubbish.
ctar
Guest
I reckon the Gold Coast is a harder market than West Sydney. The GC is the sporting black hole of Australia and if the suns have a few really bad years then it could mean trouble.
IanW
Guest
"Even if those figures are correct, its the percentage of the overall salary cap that’s the important thing" Yes. Assume a 50% increase in the current cap, and Franklin will still be pulling down 10% of total cap in the years that have seen him lose two or three steps and his agility. "Although the figures look large right now, they almost certainly won’t be in those future years. " Franklin is now 27. In three years, he'll be 30. Matthew Lloyd retired at 31. "As he’ll be a veteran the Swans will be able to exclude a large part of his salary from the cap too." No, they wont - the veterans cap is now 100k per player. "Even if those figures are correct, its the percentage of the overall salary cap that’s the important thing" See above - this is a pure Win Now deal that burns the future for another shot at a flag. Is that a bad deal for a team that didnt win a flag between 1933 and 2005 ? Probably not.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Not really. Even if those figures are correct, its the percentage of the overall salary cap that's the important thing. Although the figures look large right now, they almost certainly won't be in those future years. As he'll be a veteran the Swans will be able to exclude a large part of his salary from the cap too. If they have any spare cash lying around over the next few years they may even be able to bank that for future allocation to player spending. List management is a science, and the Swans are the best in the business.
IanW
Guest
The contract is shaped like an upside-down U ... it's cheap in the first two years, then escalates, and then drops down http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/revealed-buddy-franklin-to-profit-heavily-in-later-years-of-megadeal-20131009-2v8qk.html The danger years for Sydney's cap are 2019-2021
Franko
Guest
I think we already have enough sleeves in the AFL, Buddy being the prime example.
mwm
Guest
With the salary cap rising every year buddy technically will be making less and less as eg 1 mil in 2013 won't be worth the same as a mil in 2016... So the swans have stumped his management team there. Also goodes is very close to retiring. He is the highest paid at the swans and frees up a lot of space. Mumford??? Please... He seriously went downhill this year and was easily being eclipsed by Pyke. With Tippet and LRT coming coming back their ruck is still good. Shaw in my mind was a much better get for GWS.
Jorji Costava
Guest
Interesting the article, but what was more interesting and possibly an indication of where AFL might be going next is the uniform situation over at the NBA. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9892321/the-new-nba-uniforms Up till now, the NBA and AFL sides had the sleeveless shirt thing in common. The NBA appears to be going in the polo shirt direction. As the writer put it, a cross between golf caddie and Tour de France look. The thinking is that it is more comfortable and lighter, but it is more to do with selling the things. A slob looks like a bag of dung in a skivvy. In the polo looks presentable. How long before the AFL catches on? I give it 2 to 5 years. (The Bears tried it for a couple of years in the late 1980s when at Carrara and 100 years ago it was very common for our footy teams)
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
"by backing out when the price got too high, GWS made the right choice" I'm not sure this is actually what happened. My understanding of it was that the deal between Franklin's management and the Swans was worked on for almost a year and that GWS were never really in the hunt. The author being kind to the Giants management?
IanW
Guest
Yes, it is. The Swans lost a lot in 1992-4. Crowds averaged a touch under 10k. Lockett was signed in 1995. Hmmm, 1995 saw 8150 against Brisbane. 10410 against Freo. 10762 against Freo. Crowds averaged 15796, and the team won 8 games. On the other hand, in 1996 they had 16 mins, 5 losses and a draw. Home crowd averaged 24 500. It wasnt Plugger. It was winning. And if you dont believe me, check the 1986 and 1987 seasons. http://stats.rleague.com/afl/crowds/swans.html
clipper
Guest
Redb - I think it's better for AFL in Sydney to have Buddy go to the Swans. They already have the highest average attendance and membership, so will be able to generate more exposure as more people are already 'exposed', rather than GWS who aren't in the same exposure category as the Swans.
Sledgeross
Roar Rookie
As a westie who has attended a few Swans games in teh last 15 years, very much a win for the Swans, and a big loss for the Giants. Buddy would have given them some kind of "cred" with the non-AFL public. All this means now is another season of relative anonymity and mediocrity for a team that noone really cares about.
Mango Jack
Guest
GWS have to focus on whatever it takes to start winning some games, and soon. They have a window of maybe 3 years to become serious flag contenders, otherwise they may not survive. I know it's a cliche, but they are smack in the middle of the toughest sporting market in the country, vying for attention against a spectacularly successful local soccer club and entrenched leagues clubs in every direction. The only way they will gain the sort of support needed to survive there is to start winning regularly, so in that respect, gaining a quality ruckman in Mumford complements their roster and adds more to their chances of winning than Buddy.