The Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) hopes of 13 horses go on the line when the Lexus Stakes (2500m, Group 3, handicap) is run at 12.45pm AEDT this afternoon. Join us as we bring you live coverage of the race formerly known as the Hotham Handicap.
The main interest in this race is derived from the Melbourne Cup ballot exemption the winner receives.
That means whoever wins this race will be in the Melbourne Cup field tonight.
Ethiopia, the top weight who carries 58kgs, four kilos above the minimum weight, is the only horse in the Lexus who is safely in the Melbourne Cup field as I write this preview on Friday night.
The 2012 Australian Derby winner (2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds) is the 13th horse in the Melbourne Cup ballot.
24 horses will make the Melbourne Cup field and currently – after Silent Achiever’s withdrawal from the Melbourne Cup on Friday – Kelinni (57kgs), who is entered to run in the Lexus, is now the 24th horse in the Cup ballot.
But unless Kelinni wins the Lexus he still isn’t assured of a Cup start – he could be jumped in the ballot by the winner of the Lexus and Mackinnon (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age). Both races offer the winner ballot exemption.
Trainer Chris Waller seemed to be leaning towards missing the Lexus on Friday night because he felt the horse (fourth in last year’s Melbourne Cup after winning the Lexus with 57kgs) would perform better in the Melbourne Cup racing two weeks fresh after running ninth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group 1, handicap).
Waller seemed prepared to risk missing a start in the Lexus. The Melbourne Cup is at the forefront of the trainer’s mind.
Other than Kelinni, only My Quest For Peace (26th in the ballot after the removal of Silent Achiever) is the other Lexus runner with a chance of making the Melbourne Cup field without winning this race.
So, for the other 11 combatants, Cup dreams go on the line here. I think there are six principal winning chances.
Kelinni, comes through the Caulfield Cup, where he was quite good in a relatively close-up defeat. This is a steep fall in grade and he did win this race last year with the same weight. I’d be surprised if he didn’t run well should he line up.
Araldo, my top selection, beat Sea Moon in the Bart Cummings (2500m, Listed, handicap) on protest at the course and distance last month and that is great form because Sea Moon is a real chance in the Melbourne Cup.
An imported horse, Araldo has improved in each of his Australian runs and is perfectly weighted on the limit with 54kgs.
Two starts back, Araldo gave three kilos to Let’s Make Adeal in Morphettville’s Tokyo City Cup (1800m, Listed, handicap) and was only 0.3 of a length astern. Now, at level weights and much fitter, I think he’ll beat the mare this time.
Let’s Make Adeal is not without a chance herself. In a hot Herbert Power (2400m, Group 2, handicap) won by Sea Moon she missed the start badly and was only beaten by just over a length. If she can race at a career-best level then she will be a winning chance.
The other key winning hopes are Bass Strait who ran well when second in a strong renewal of the Coongy (2000m, Group 3, handicap) on Caulfield Cup day. Third in the Coongy was Garud was also lines up here and must be some chance.
The Coongy fifth-placed horse Hurdy Gurdy Man was beaten easily yet still carried the top weight to a decisive Hamilton Cup (2200m, Open handicap) win last Sunday.
Earlier in the spring, Bass Strait had run very well behind current Cup favourite Fiorente in the Dato Tan Chin Nam (1600m, Group 2, weight-for-age) when an unlucky and close-up fifth.
Kingdoms is probably the other hope and he was good in a tough victory in the Tattersall’s Cup (2400m, Listed, Quality handicap) at Randwick last start.
It was the race used by Maluckyday in 2010 to launch a successful Lexus bid on the way to finishing second to Americain in the Melbourne Cup.
Since 2000, two horses have won the Lexus and Melbourne Cup in the same year – Brew (2000) and Shocking (2009). Both those horses were super impressive in Lexus victory.
To challenge on Tuesday, today’s winner needs to be similarly impressive.
Justin Cinque’s tips
1. Araldo
2. Bass Strait
3. Kelinni
4. Let’s Make Adeal
Andrew Hawkins’ tips
1. Let’s Make Adeal
2. Araldo
3. Ironstein
4. Vaquera
Cameron Rose’s tips
1. Let’s Make Adeal
2. Bass Straight
3. Araldo
4. Motivado
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. Garud
2. Araldo
3. Ironstein
4. Kingdoms
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After the Cox Plate
Cameron Rose: 55
Justin Cinque: 55
Alfred Chan: 50
Andrew Hawkins: 42
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
The same goes for Hucklebuck in the first. Took him a long time to catch the leader. Mind you a smart front running ride from K McEvoy on Paximadia. 2 wins for McEvoy from three starts.
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Confirmation. Kellini won't be paid up for the cup.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Maybe Kirramosa - who brought a different formline to the Wakeful - is just the superior filly?
Justin Cinque
Expert
Here at Flemington, the weather is really warm. I'm not sure what impact that is having on the track - two leaders and one swooper have saluted already today. Maybe the track is a little leaderish because even though Kirramosa was so impressive in the Wakeful, it took the second-placegetter May's Dream a long time catch the leaders. And the leaders did stick on well.
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Bass Strait and Kelinni were disappointing, finishing at the tail of the field. Even if Kellini makes the Melbourne Cup field, I feel they won't run him. He hasn't looked the same since he had that setback earlier in the Spring.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Well that was an interesting Lexus. Ruscello just outstayed them there. Incredibly, in England, only two starts ago before he brought out here to Australia he was just a benchmark horse. Now, he's eligible for the Melbourne Cup. It looks like he won't run on Tuesday but what a really nice stayer.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Walker wants to look after the horse and wants to say no. Connections might push him.
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Lexus winners always seem to run well in the Cup on Tuesday. Once connections of Ruscello have a real think about it, they will accept
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Ed Walker is not sure if he will take the opportunity to run Ruscello in the Melbourne Cup. Lets Make A Deal's connections won't be happy if Walker and team decide not too
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Good front running ride from Kerrin McKevoy
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Ethiopia a nice run from the back to finish 4th
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Ruscello and Lets Make A Deal fight it out... and Ruscello Araldo 3rd
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
No change to the order
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
They are off in the Lexus! Lets Make A Deal goes forward Ruscello Leads Kellini box seating in 3rd Araldo and Bass Strait at the back Ethiopia last
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Loading into the barriers
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Ethiopia is the only runner who is guaranteed a run in the Melbourne Cup. No pressure on his shoulders.
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
No market mover. Araldo just ahead of Kellini in the betting. Who is going to get one of the last tickets into the Melbourne Cup?
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Late money coming for the Ed Walker trained Ruscello. He wasn't very bullish about his chances when interviewed before the race.
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Lets Make A Deal is on top for me from Bass Strat, Kellini, and Araldo
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
Gai Waterhouse will be hoping to have another horse in the Melbourne Cup. Can Vaquera be her 3rd entrant?