Last week I wrote of my expectation that the All Blacks would manage to see off the English, but also of a feeling in my waters that they might still be heading for another end-of-year ambush, though this time in Dublin.
Not because the Irish are a great team, but because they are a good-enough team to take advantage of the All Blacks if they take their eyes off the ball.
One week on, and the pasting Ireland were given by the Wallabies throws a big, ornery cat among the delicate pigeons of my “good-enough” theory.
Irish prospects have not been improved by both Sexton and O’Driscoll being in doubt through injury.
Last week I was suggesting that Brian O’Driscoll could have a crucial role to play in exposing Ben Smith’s inexperience in the centre, inexperience still manifest after the England match.
However, after Brian O’Driscoll’s performance against the Aussies – an unhappy cross between the anonymous and the invisible – I’m no longer sure he can make that much of a difference.
Be all that as it may, I still feel there is still reason for the All Blacks and all who sail in her to be cautious.
For a start, the Irish can’t play that poorly two weeks in a row. They are a proud bunch, they’ll want to redeem themselves for the Wallaby game, and they so often seem to play best when playing for pride. Meanwhile, the Irish performance last week will have made it even harder for the All Blacks to maintain proper focus.
If the England game was any guide, the areas the Irish might like to concentrate on include the All Blacks’ kicking game and their scrum.
It is certainly fair to say that England won the scrum battle, but perhaps not by as much as expected or as subsequently reported.
By my patented, highly-scientific but secret scrum-scoring system, England came out on top of this facet by eight points to five, however for three scrums in succession in the middle of the match the All Blacks’ scrum was looking like it was made in Australia, which perhaps gave a misleading overall impression.
The All Blacks’ scrum did improve later in the game, which may have been linked to some of the personnel changes to the New Zealanders in the front row (in both teams) and/or to the fact that by the end of the game the English seemed to have run out of puff, or to a combination of both.
All of which suggests that, sadly, Woodcock’s days are distinctly numbered, while it is far from clear that Crockett is short enough for the job.
On the tighthead side, Franks is struggling to convince, to the point where it might be time to move Faumuina to the front of the queue.
Of course the fact that Ireland’s scrum was a shambles against Australia suggests they are not necessarily best-placed to take advantage of any weaknesses here.
The short box-kicks by the All Blacks last week were also hard to fathom.
Things didn’t start well, with England getting to Aaron Smith on his first couple of kicks, so that it seemed that when combined with the memories of the 2012 match, this early pressure was enough to put Smith just slightly off his kicking game.
And even if the kicks were good, they were frequently (though not on every occasion) let down by the chase.
Thus we saw, with the All Blacks struggling to get enough possession or field position to control the game, Aaron Smith (six times) and Aaron Cruden (twice) kicking the pill straight back to England in or only just out of their own territory.
The ball was crying out to be kicked deep but it was only relatively late in the day that Dagg started carving off big slices of territory with long raking kicks.
Perhaps if Carter had stayed on things would have been different, but with him gone there was a lack of variation and a lack of tactical acumen to the All Blacks kicking game.
Other areas where there were problems included the kick-offs.
The All Blacks have revolutionised the kick-off over the last few years, but on Saturday it was like watching a match from the bad old days.
The first five All Black kick-offs went to just beyond the 22 and straight into the hands of No. 8 Billy Vunipola, the man keenest and best-equipped to charge it straight back at them. Only late in the game was any variation attempted.
Despite these problems and despite the sterling way the English sought to bully them into submission for good portions of the game, the ability of the All Blacks to strike when they needed to, the lack of an English cutting edge, and the fact that England was running on empty some time before they crossed the finish line was enough to get them home.
Which brings us back to this weekend, and the potential banana-skin that is Ireland.
The odds are obviously in favour of the All Blacks putting the out-of-sorts Irish to the sword, but there is still the very real chance that complacency reigns on the day and the All Blacks get all wet.
Rest assured, Dublin will be a fun place to be on Sunday night if it is the latter comes to pass.
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
No, I don't agree with you here Ben Smith not only scored tries, he created breaklines, he chased high balls like no one else in the Rugby Championship and was in general, an outstanding player I think he's not a centre and I don't know if he'll ever be, Tana Umaga used to say that it was not until towards the end of his career that he found himself comfortable playing centre, it is that tricky But as a wing, in 2013 there's been no player like Ben Smith
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
You got it totally wrong!!!!! In the 13th minute the Irish were leading 14-0 (What an amazing game of rugby it has been)
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
I must say I still don't know how we managed to win that one. I saw Owens conceding a penalty in the maul for collapsing and said "it's the end". But Sexton missed. How miserable he must now be feeling, and rightly so because it was not a difficult one to kick. Congratulations should go for the All Blacks because they were able to defeat a very very very good irish team
Jerry
Guest
Reminiscent of the last test in 1997 except this time the AB's managed to go one better. Had their share of luck but showed huge heart. A quick note - remember Stephen Moore's disallowed try in that Bledisloe test when some people queried how a player can be offside for their own pick and go? Ben Franks pretty much got away with one for his try - look where his feet are when he picks the ball up.
Rugy
Guest
Ben smith is a bit over-hyped at international level in my opinion, yes hes scored a few tries, but I think any of the new zealand wingers could have scored the ones he has. Barrett on the other hand, is showing that he is a player of immense talent. This game just goes to show that the Irish are a very dangerous team, and are only going to get more dangerous under Joe Schmidt
deanB
Guest
My Kiwi blood is ebullient but the Kelly blood is disconsolate. Condolences you magnificent Irish Bastards!
Dublin Dave
Guest
If I had a cat, it would have been kicked to death by now. Gutted.
stillmatic1
Guest
its a tough one, that's for sure katz. but I wouldn't like to see dagg out of the team. when he injects himself into the attack, things just happen, and his boot is too valuable. maybe benny has a Scottish mother or something and he can play wing or fullback for them!its either centre or nothing I feel.
katzilla
Roar Guru
Ben Smith isnt the answer at 13, we're wasting our best winger and our Centre position in one move. He needs space, id even be happy for him to have Izzy Daggs spot, and that's from a Hawkes Bay boy.
stillmatic1
Guest
yep, he gets that, and its very hard to win. mind you, I don't think it could've been much harder than what just happened....
stillmatic1
Guest
it was my blind fury lads, not based on reason!! smith did get better, as the abs got better, but he was taking his time in the first half when he could have been a bit more abrasive and just got in there and cleared the ball. I know that isn't easy, but what was the alternative? nonu was average and killed a couple of good raids. that terrible knock on with 4 mins to go with barrett and savea ( I think) outside him was a shocker. then again his pass to savea last week got us over the line vs England, so who knows what to do with him. agree re: no single player won the game, we got a sniff due to sexton missing, then had other things goes against us after that, and still stole the match. the opposition will always have to play its part in order for things to fall that way, and as I said further up, just have a look at the final plays of game 6 in the nba finals last year. the game is alive until the ref stops it.
chracol
Guest
Feel for BOD too --- sitting out the second half under concussion rules --- but that was just as great an achievement for the AB's as if they had won the game by a cricket score and embarrassed the Irish team --- after following this Ab team all year I'm celebrating and I hope they are too
DR
Guest
Feel for Sexton. He had a great game. Can't knock the lads attitude. Such a relief!!! Wooooohoooooooooo!!!!
Grogs
Guest
There was no way you could have hooked A. Smith with TJ on the bench, to Smith's credit he did get better, and it was a bit of a mess at ruck time.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Cruden made a lot of mistakes in this test. Smith I thought got better as the second half wore on. It all came down to a missed Sexton kick and an Irish penalty and no single All Black made a difference, really. We were so predictable the way we went wide to Nonu each time. The moment where he slipped was karma.
chracol
Guest
That's the truth man! The Irish had the game to lose and they lost it to a team that hasn't lost all year.
eszkal
Guest
Sexton's missed penalty was the crucial moment 6 minutes before end...
I can only say commisserations to Ireland. It was a game of inches. Had Sexton kicked his goal, it might have won the game. To concede a penalty with 1 minute to go whilst in possession is heartbreaking. The All blacks are confident enough in their ability to strike with one minute to go. It was crucial that Ireland had a lead of more than a score in the end. The AB's have their perfect season, just. It just shows how tough a year end tour can be, we should not under estimate these teams at the end of the year. It isn't just a case of rocking up. Well done to the All Blacks on a fantastic season.
stillmatic1
Guest
the abs were their own worst enemy at times, but we got a slight sniff and Ireland fell asleep for a minute and that's the game. Hansen should have hooked Charlie, cruden and smith after half time. cruden has no pace at all and some terrible kicking. I was praying for barrett to replace him and inject some pace ( and he comes on and lights it up!!) Charlie fau was tired as all hell (understandably), and smith was flustered at the back of the ruck. too long getting to the ball, which was even more important considering the work the irish were doing. say what you want about this ab team, but they don't die wondering and that is what will win a WC, IMO. they had next to no right to win that game, or even draw it, but they got there. not pretty, but pretty aint this teams thing................
Johnno
Guest
Brian O'sdricoll gotta feel for he is everything to Irish rugby, he bleeds green, and BOD they deserved it, they played for BOD they went might close to delivering a win for BOD, feel so sorry for BOD.