There are moments in a rugby season where you are faced with no alternative but to change your perception, opinion or argument in regards to a particular player, coach or team.
This is when the wisest of us redirect our thoughts to the new evidence presented and it is sadly when the stubborn among us remain steadfast to old arguments and prejudices.
I’m going with the wiser option.
My change in viewpoints came this weekend in regards to several among the current wallaby set up.
It may have come earlier this year against Argentina, it may have come against Italy, it may have come against Ireland, but I am not one to jump on a bandwagon.
In saying that, short of waiting until next year’s Rugby Championship, I believe it is now time to face some realities.
With an obviously weakened side, against what could be described as very strong Scottish brethren, on a field suited to a Summer mud party, the Wallabies achieved something we have not for some time. We beat Scotland.
‘Big Deal,’ I hear.
For reasons both external and internal this really was a big deal. It could have been a huge hiccup.
Recent history tells us it may well have been and ancient history tells us the same. After all, the Wallabies have only beaten Scotland twice for every game they’ve lost against them (18 wins to nine losses before this weekend).
This win has changed my view on the current squad of players. We now know a second string mid-field, and in reality a second string back-row, will still bring us an important victory against decent, if not strong, opposition.
The fact this was in unfavourable conditions is just gravy. In the past few years, this would not have been the case.
I am now of the opinion we have genuine Test match depth.
This win has also categorically changed my view on Ewen McKenzie.
I was not a fan of McKenzie’s appointment as Wallaby coach. I believed the ‘fairy floss’ style he brought through at the Reds was a style without any real Test rugby substance.
Super Rugby is played without Test match intensity. In Super Rugby it is possible to go the entire season without having to play wet weather rugby. There are no European conditions to truly test a coaches worth.
I believed McKenzie’s appointment would see my beloved Wallabies fail miserably at the 2015 Rugby World Cup. I now believe I was wrong.
I have come to realise, despite modern trends to the contrary, having an expansive style as your stock game plan is the right way to go.
That is as long as you adapt when in a quagmire on a worm-infested pitch on a November night in Edinburgh.
McKenzie now knows when you play the big boys, or slightly weaker sides in unfavourable conditions, you have to be practical.
You also need the right players who can adapt to different situations. You can call this ‘playing what’s in front of you’ or whatever you like, but McKenzie is on board with it and this is pleasing.
I now believe, with two more years of development, McKenzie can win us the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
He can do this by still playing attractive, expansive rugby. Well for the most part anyway. The tournament is going to be played in Europe after all, and the All Blacks and Springboks aren’t going to all of a sudden shrink down to the size of normal men.
He will need to be smart about it and I think he is.
I have also come to believe Israel Folau has had the single best rookie year of any Wallaby ever, both statistically and perceptually.
At fullback he has scored more tries in a calendar year than any other Wallaby before him.
In fact, if you compare him to other Wallaby fullbacks of the professional era, the numbers are compelling.
Leaving aside his amazing run metres, off-loads and tackle busts, Folau’s nine tries in his first 14 Tests are quite amazing.
By comparison, Kurtley Beale has only one more try, yet he has played 25 more Tests.
Indeed Folau’s strike rate is much greater than both Matthew Burke and even the try-scoring machine Chris Latham.
Granted it’s early days yet, but what a player Folau is.
His vertical leap is sublime to the point that soon we will be referring to anyone that leaps well for the high ball in the same way we refer to batsman trying to emulate Bradman.
Get used to hearing the term ‘Folau-esque’ in the years to come.
Last but not least, I believe Quade Cooper has the mental fortitude to take the Wallabies to a new level.
He may not of course, but I’d still like to point out I never thought I’d ever say that last sentence. I take my hat off to him. The boy has become a man.
To all the naysayers, yes we have to do better in the Rugby Championship next year! But I am one fan at least who is now positive we will.
Go the Wallabies!
abxv2015
Roar Rookie
The AB's talked all year about improvements and then seeking a perfect performance on the EOYT. They had to play their best game of the year in SA out of necessity and fear. That wasn't peaking and there is soooo much we want to improve on ALL ACROSS THE PARK. All countries now have platforms, some are better than the others, just that the AB's platform are another complete level above everyone elses.
DAN
Guest
he grips hard really hard so hard his end popped of with such force that it killed his cat
DAN
Guest
and if you jump in the water you get wet!!! state the obvious knobjockler
DAN
Guest
FU um we have lost 4 out of the last 12 Bok games. that would be not really a struggle also we have hovered at 2-3 for thew most part of 10 years so its not all doom and gloom. just because we are not reinventing the game like we used to the boys need our support. grow the fark up and get behind them or stfu and fo!!! stop doing the WWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH helps no one and shows your character
Carl
Guest
You're right mate. I saw the stat on a diagram on ruggablogger, they were way off on the official stats! Wonder where they even pulled their figures from if not the IRB. My bad.
Dru
Guest
Gatesy, I presume you are a Brumbies guy? (Sorry I'm relatively new to Roar). Firstly let me say that I feel about Toomua the way that many feel about Quade. "OK I was wrong, there may be something in this". Toomua has along with Moore been the stand outs on this tour for me. (Quade merely performs how I expected - brilliantly.) What bothers me is What happens when Toomua and Leahreturn to Canberra? Brumby drivers do not match the WBs.
RugbyFan
Guest
I get what your saying but I think you've got it wrong. Folau is not a lazy defender he just doesn't know how to position himself that well when he's on defense, it'll probably take him another season or two to really get it right as well as his kicking game.
DR
Guest
Dagg is a poor defender. We can't all read fairy floss and good times. Got to have balance ;)
I have mentioned a number of times that Dagg is a poor defender, but again similar to this situation, I copped flack for that as well. It seems it is only appropriate to compliment heroes on this forum, any negative criticism should be witheld to avoid retaliation.
Nabley
Guest
Dream on. Wait until the opening ceremony before you start making predictions and then keep them to yourself. Remember the Wallabies won the Tri Nations just before the start of the 2011 RWC. They never looked like doing any better than a minor placing throughout the tournament. A lot of people in Sth A would say they didn't really deserve even that given the incompetence of the NZ Ref in the QF. Fortunately for World Rugby my memory tells me he retired quickly afterwards giving an apology.
Buk
Guest
Can't argue with your facts Tane, but form the mid-year point between World Cups, anything can happen. The All Blacks of 1996 and 1997 were no.1 in the world - won the Tri Nations undefeated both years, plus in 1996 had won a test series in South Africa 2-1 (altogether winning 4 out of 5 tests against the Springboks - some feat, not repeated in the professional era to my knowledge). But then in 1998 - a big crash, lost 5 tests in a row - almost unbelieveable. You might be able to shed some light on that. Again in 1999 lost to France in an almost unbelievable freak/miracle turn around by the French, after being down 24-10 with about 30 minutes left. The one-off nature of the knockout rounds in RWC makes anything possible, and the consistently best 2 teams of the year rarely meet in the final (eg 1999, 2007, 2011). France came within one penalty of winning in 2011, after losing twice in their pool matches.
RobC
Guest
Before watching games vs England, Italy and Ireland, I thought we had 0% chance to win RWC. After our forwards showed what they can do in those games, I agree WBs now have a chance. However, its around 5 to 10%. There is a very long way to go, and looking forward to consistency and fixing some of key problems we will face with NZ, SA. And expected improvements from England and France.
RugbyFan
Guest
it's funny you say he's a lazy defender considering he's made more tackles in both the Super 15 and Rugby Championship than Israel Dagg according to testrugby.com........are you going to call Dagg a Lazy defender?
kelefua
Guest
It'll be a boring leadup to World Cup if teams other than ABs dont show some condfidence in winning the thing. Wallabies have as much chance as the Bokkes & ABs with 2 each.
Aaron
Guest
No Carl, the IRB website will tell you that NZ and Australia have roughly the same no of registered players and Australia in fact has more senior registered players than NZ does. Like I said, my comment was not meant to be a NZ v Australia argument.
peeeko
Roar Guru
just had a look at the RWC website. australia has definitely got the toughest draw. even though the rankings may be misleading, ranked 3,4 and 5 are all in the same pool (aust,eng,Wales). SA have only got samoa and Scotland (8,9). the ABs only have tonga and argentina (10,12). obviously there was a method to the pool selecting, can anyone enlighten me?
Aaron
Guest
Th kangaroos are not a stronger entity that the ABs Michael, not even close. History will tell you that they have a 67% winning percentage compared to the Abs 76%. And most would argue that the ABs face stronger opposition overall. Don't mean to start a code war, just stating the facts.
Carl
Guest
haha!
Carl
Guest
NZ also has nearly twice the number of registered Rugby players to choose from which given the fact NZ has approx 1/5 the population makes rugby around 10 times more popular in NZ than in Aus. Rugby in Australia hovers around the 6th and 7th positions in participation. Only once did it become the 4th most popular sport, and that was for a few months after the 2003 WC.
Carl
Guest
You're missing a league player who will convert between now and then. Inglis perhaps.